| | | Good morning, Early Birds. We are back from a few days off. Hope you missed this newsletter! Send tips to earlytips@washpost.com. Thanks for waking up with us. In today’s edition … Wisconsin may be central in the fight for the House … Florida Democrats look for any hope … We have a question for you on the eve of the Dobbs decision anniversary … but first … The big newsPresident Donald Trump, who ran on promises of ending U.S. involvement in wars, is now explaining to America why he ordered the military to bomb three sites in Iran that were critical to the nation’s nuclear program. “The strikes were a spectacular military success,” Trump said during a short address to the nation on Saturday night, arguing that Iran’s nuclear facilities were “completely and totally obliterated” by the military action. He threatened further strikes “if peace does not come quickly,” looking to force Iran to the negotiating table. “There are many targets left,” he added. One point Trump did not clarify: How the president who ran on less military action is now actively redefining the meaning of “America First” foreign policy. Trump has pledged for years to end the nation’s “forever wars,” even writing in 2013 that Barack Obama “will attack Iran because of his inability to negotiate properly” as the Obama administration negotiated the Iran nuclear deal that Trump would eventually leave. “We will measure our success not only by the battles we win, but also by the wars that we end, and perhaps most importantly, the wars we never get into,” Trump said in his inaugural address this year. “We’re uniting forces to end the endless foreign wars,” Trump said during his 2024 campaign, adding, “You don’t want to have wars. I ended wars.” On that note, Vice President JD Vance was sure to put some qualifiers on the bombing campaign. “We’re not at war with Iran. We’re at war with Iran’s nuclear program,” Vance told NBC News’s Kristen Welker. “We don’t want a regime change. We do not want to protract this or build this out any more than it’s already been built out. We want to end their nuclear program, and then we want to talk to the Iranians about a long-term settlement here.” It took mere hours for Trump to somewhat step on that messaging. “It’s not politically correct to use the term, ‘Regime Change,’ but if the current Iranian Regime is unable to MAKE IRAN GREAT AGAIN, why wouldn’t there be a Regime change,” he wrote. Many of Trump’s allies the MAGA wing of the Republican Party quickly lined up in support of his decision — but not everyone followed. “Every time America is on the verge of greatness, we get involved in another foreign war,” Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Georgia) wrote. “This is not our fight. Peace is the answer.” Trump’s decision to strike Iran is politically unpopular, with polls showing the vast majority of Americans oppose the United States getting involved in the war between Iran and Israel and a similar majority supporting the United States negotiating with Iran about its nuclear program. So, what now? A bipartisan group in Congress is calling for the legislative body to vote on the authorization of military action. And fears of retaliation by Iran are high. Read this smart piece by Michael Birnbaum and Natalie Allison on how the “fateful decision” could affect Trump’s presidency. Click here for live updates from The Post. How voters in rural Wisconsin could decide the House majority |
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Billionaire Elon Musk speaks at a rally in Green Bay, Wisconsin, in March. (Joshua Lott/The Washington Post) |
The biggest political story over the next 18 months will be the fight for a House majority. And no state is likely to have a more significant impact in that fight than Wisconsin. It’s a bit of an oddity. Wisconsin has only eight congressional districts, and many of them are considered safe seats. However, because the state may undergo a rare mid-decade redistricting process ahead of the 2026 midterm elections, two districts currently controlled by Republicans could become significantly more competitive. Just ask one of the Republicans representing one of those districts. “We both lose,” Rep. Derrick Van Orden said when asked by CNN about the stakes of redistricting in the state, referring to himself and Rep. Bryan Steil. “So that’s why everyone’s paying attention to this on a national level.” The last redistricting in the state occurred under a conservative-majority Wisconsin Supreme Court that applied the “least change” standard, which Democrats contend left the districts biased in favor of Republicans. The state’s legislative maps were redrawn in 2023 after the court abandoned that standard, but the congressional maps were not. The Elias Group, a law firm led by Marc Elias, a longtime Democratic election lawyer, petitioned the court this year that the congressional map should not be held to the earlier standard and needs to be redrawn. If the Wisconsin Supreme Court hears Elias’s challenge, there will be a major difference from the last time redistricting came before the court: Susan Crawford, a Dane County judge backed by Democrats, who won a seat on the Wisconsin Supreme Court this year, breaking the long-held conservative majority. The race drew more than $100 million in spending, including about $20 million from Elon Musk and groups affiliated with the billionaire. Musk told an audience during the campaign — while donning a cheesehead hat — that the Supreme Court race “might decide the future of America and Western Civilization.” Hyperbole aside, the result could decide control of the House. “We think the court, in recent campaigns, has taken a hard partisan turn, and if they are going to ride this hard partisan turn into their decisions, I think that would give anyone pause, but in particular Republicans,” said a GOP operative in Wisconsin who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss the matter frankly. “If the Democrats are going to open this up and push for something … they are going to do it to try to take seats.” “It’s hard to think of a standard that would lead to maps getting even more skewed in favor of Republicans in Wisconsin, so Derrick Van Orden has about a year and a half to decide how to spend his final months in Congress,” said Ben Wikler, the outgoing chair of the Wisconsin Democratic Party. “The writing is on the wall here.” Van Orden did not respond to a request for comment. Republicans seem aware of this threat. Trump’s political team is pushing Texas lawmakers to consider redistricting before the 2026 midterms in an attempt to nullify any pickups in Wisconsin by making certain districts more competitive and boxing out a Democrat or two. It’s a risky plan, however, that could make other safe GOP districts more competitive — a hard sell for some Texas Republicans. Redistricting will also occur in Ohio, where the state’s legislature has until fall to pass new congressional maps. Republicans will have the vast majority of power in the process, but some Democratic agreement is needed for the new maps to be adopted. “It’s clear that [House Speaker] Mike Johnson and the Trump team know that their House majority is the result of partisan gerrymandering,” Wikler said. “And in the world where they may lose one partisan gerrymander, they are trying to juice up another one. What most Americans want is the same thing … which is fair maps that are not drawn to protect insiders or give one party control.” |
| | |  | On the Hill |
The House and Senate are back in session this week. Whatever could be on their minds? The Senate has only a week left to pass the Republican tax-and-spending-cuts bill if they want to make their July 4 recess deadline. They left for the long weekend with numerous disagreements on Medicaid, energy and the overall cost of the bill. Republicans are also having to contend with the stricter Senate rules on what can go in the bill. Of course, Congress is also eager to regroup and determine its path forward after the strikes on Iran. Republicans are mostly jubilant, expressing faith in the administration’s calculation that the strikes were necessary. But Democrats say the strikes were illegal because Congress had not given approval and they hadn’t seen intelligence proving there was an immediate threat to the United States. Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Virginia), a member of the Foreign Relations and Armed Services committees, introduced a resolution in the Senate last week to bar military action in Iran without congressional approval and said he would now “push for all Senators to vote on whether they are for this third idiotic Middle East war.” Republican leaders were briefed on the situation before the strikes, and House Speaker Johnson (R-Louisiana) said there was sufficient urgency for Trump to execute them without congressional approval. “The President fully respects the Article I power of Congress, and tonight’s necessary, limited, and targeted strike follows the history and tradition of similar military actions under presidents of both parties,” Johnson posted Saturday on X. Democrats are demanding a similarly thorough briefing once they’re back in Washington. “I expect a full, classified brief on the strikes in Iran, and the strategy and force protection plans, as soon as possible,” Sen. Elissa Slotkin (D-Michigan), a former CIA analyst, said in a statement. “The real question is: what happens the day after? A strike can have major repercussions for safety and stability across the region. As someone who served in Iraq and saw up close the loss of blood and treasure over 20 years, I don’t want to be embroiled in another drawn out conflict, and neither do the American people.” |
| | |  | Get ready with The Post |
- Andrew Cuomo wants to be New York’s mayor. Do Democrats want him back, Sarah Ellison asks. Polling shows Cuomo with a lead heading into Tuesday’s primary, with some Democrats willing to set aside their concerns about the disgraced former governor.
- Medicaid is crucial to rural health care in West Virginia, and Yasmeen Abutaleb reports that a rural hospital’s future has been “thrown into doubt by President Donald Trump’s sprawling tax and spending package.”
- The federal debt can often seem like a distant concept that has little impact on the day-to-day lives of everyday Americans. But Jacob Bogage highlights how the national debt affects the United States — and you — in 10 charts.
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| | |  | The campaign |
It’s been a tough few years for Democrats in Florida. The party is entirely out of power in the once-battleground state, battered by statewide losses after statewide losses. Josh Weil, a teacher who overperformed expectations in a special election to Congress this year and announced a Senate run last week, says he can change that by bringing a mix of populist and liberal politics, along with a personal story that he hopes will resonate with voters concerned about the country’s trajectory. “I am a single parent on a schoolteacher’s budget with two middle school kids, and it feels damn near impossible to survive here in Florida sometimes. I know how this feels,” Weil told us. “I have felt that way, that I don’t see someone out there fighting for me far too often enough. So I am going to be that person to fight for everyone else.” It’s a massive hill to climb. Republicans have won every gubernatorial contest in Florida since 1998 and every Senate contest since 2012, and they have dominated the state congressional delegation for years. Weil is a relative unknown in politics. While he sought the Democratic nomination in the state’s 2022 Senate race — a contest that Rep. Val Demings would go on to lose by 16 points — it was his campaign during a special election to Congress this year that raised even some skeptical eyebrows. Weil pulled in $14 million and lost to Republican Randy Fine by 14 points, roughly half the margin politicians like Trump and Gov. Ron DeSantis carried the district by over the past few years. Money is not the problem for Florida Democrats, however. Demings, on her way to an overwhelming loss, significantly outraised Sen. Marco Rubio, whose decision to join the Trump administration as secretary of state made way for Ashley Moody to be named senator and possibly face Weil next year. “It’s what really made us feel confident about this,” Weil said of his performance in the special election. “This is a huge race. There is a lot of work that needs to be done in Florida. It is a huge state, and to be frank, the state Democratic Party has just conceded whole areas of the state to the Republican Party.” From your local paperPhiladelphia Inquirer: How one group is teaching emotional regulation through football. Times of San Diego: Many issues, from tariffs to wide deficits to increased deportations, are holding back California’s economy, a study finds. The Dickinson Press (North Dakota): Signs are going up in national parks across the country, including at Theodore Roosevelt National Park, asking tourists to report park content that is “negative about either past or living Americans” or that doesn’t highlight “the beauty, grandeur and abundance” of the landscape. It’s all part of a broader Trump administration effort. |
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