Germany’s Far Right Tops Key State Race, but Falls Short of Power
The Alternative for Germany party dominated a crucial state election on Sunday, according to near-final results, but fell short of the absolute majority that would have made it the first far-right party to govern part of the country since the Nazi era.
If those results hold, the AfD, as the party is known by its German initials, could still assume power in the eastern Saxony-Anhalt state in the coming weeks, depending on the outcome of negotiations among rival parties that have vowed not to support an AfD government.
Saxony-Anhalt is a relatively small state, and the heart of the AfD’s power base in eastern Germany. But the result has sent shock waves through the country’s political system, which was designed after World War II to prevent extremist parties from ever returning to power.
The political establishment has treated the AfD as a pariah, but the party tapped into voter frustration on a wide range of economic and social issues to win about 44 percent of the vote in the state, and was set to claim 39 of the 83 seats in the Parliament.
“We’ve made history, and we’re taking our country back,” Ulrich Siegmund, the party’s candidate to lead the state, told a cheering crowd on Sunday evening. “It all starts here in Saxony-Anhalt.”
Exit polls suggested that many of the AfD’s gains came at the expense of the center-right Christian Democrats, the party of Chancellor Friedrich Merz that also led the incumbent government in the state. Amid record turnout, the AfD won the support of many Germans who were casting ballots for the first time, including a wide plurality of young voters.
The far-right AfD has surged to lead national polls, as centrist parties bleed support and struggle to forge the consensus needed to sideline the far-right party.
The domestic intelligence agency has designated the AfD as a “suspected extremist” group. Some of the party’s leaders have played down the Holocaust and adopted Nazi slogans. Others have strong ties to Russia. The AfD has also said that Islam is incompatible with the German Constitution and has vowed to conduct mass deportations of immigrants.
The AfD has rejected accusations of extremism as politically motivated.
The party appealed to voters in Saxony-Anhalt with promises to revitalize a sagging economy, and its supporters, especially in eastern Germany, say the AfD is their best chance to break mainstream parties’ hold on political power.
They delivered such a blow on Sunday. Sudha David-Wilp, vice president of external relations at the German Marshall Fund, said the result in Saxony-Anhalt “stands as a harbinger for the inability for mainstream parties to form stable coalitions.”
They will have to build such a coalition in Saxony-Anhalt, if they hope to prevent the AfD from assuming power. The Christian Democrats, who finished a distant second, could end up leading the state if they can build a coalition with four other parties: the center-left Social Democrats and Greens, the far-left Die Linke, and the populist Sahra Wagenknecht alliance, known by its German initials BSW.
But some Christian Democrat leaders in the state have said they would not work with Die Linke, calling it extremist. BSW leaders have also said they would not support the current state leader, Sven Schulze of the Christian Democrats, or the AfD.
Muhammad Hassan, 27, a native of Pakistan, said he has done all he can to assimilate in Germany since he arrived in 2023. He learned German, obtained his drivers license, finished his masters degree in water engineering, secured a job as a technical draftsman drawing underground infrastructure like sewage and electrical lines. But he fears that his dream of a free, secure life in Germany is colliding with the rise of the AfD just one year before he becomes eligible for permanent residency.
“When I see today’s situation,” he said, referring to the election, “it has totally disappointed me because what I have dreamed, I cannot see right now.”
We’ve passed 90 percent of the votes counted. The AfD still looks likely to fall short of an absolute majority. The prospects for a rival coalition coming together remain unclear.
Here’s one quick scenario being tossed around in Berlin political circles: The BSW, a populist party with policies associated with both the left and the right, could at some point abstain from voting for a state leader. In that case, the other parties — the Christian Democrats, Social Democrats, Greens and Die Linke — would have one more seat than the AfD, and just enough to elect a leader of their choice.
One big reason the AfD will fall short: the apparent success of the Sahra Wagenknecht alliance, known by its German initials BSW. The party seems likely to win more than 5 percent of the vote, the threshold needed to win seats in the state parliament, and it could effectively decide who governs Saxony-Anhalt. BSW is a populist party with policies associated with both the left and the right. Its leaders have said they will neither back the AfD nor the current state leader, Sven Schulze of the Christian Democrats.
Addressing a crowd of supporters in Magdeburg, Saxony-Anhalt, Ulrich Siegmund, the AfD’s lead candidate in the state election, called his party’s victory historic. “We’ve made history, and we’re taking our country back,” he told a cheering crowd. “It all starts here in Saxony-Anhalt,” he said.
About 80 percent of the votes have been counted in Saxony-Anhalt, and it looks increasingly likely that the AfD will fall just short of the absolute majority of seats it needs to be assured of taking power in the state.
