(This post was last updated at 9:18 a.m. ET.)
Years
of delicate diplomacy and decades of geopolitical animosity gave way to
a historic agreement Tuesday between six world powers and Iran over the
country's nuclear program.
After a final, marathon negotiating
session that was preceded by a series of deadline extensions over the
course of three weeks, foreign ministers from the U.S., Iran, Russia,
China, U.K., France and Germany gave word that they had reached an
accord.
"This is a historic moment," Iranian Foreign Minister
Mohammad Javad Zarif said Tuesday morning. "We are reaching an agreement
that is not perfect for anybody, but it is what we could accomplish,
and it is an important achievement for all of us. Today could have been
the end of hope on this issue. But now we are starting a new chapter of
hope."
Calling on Congress to support the deal, President Obama
said the agreement cuts off all the pathways Iran has toward a nuclear
weapon. He said the alternative to this deal would leave Iran closer to
becoming a nuclear power and would make a military confrontation with
Iran more likely.
"We give up nothing by testing whether or not this problem can be solved peacefully," Obama said.
According to
the outline of the deal
put out by the Obama administration, the terms would still allow Iran
to enrich uranium, but only to 3.67 percent, which is needed for
civilian purposes but much lower than would needed for a weapon. The
deal also commits Iran to cut down on the number and types of
centrifuges it can use, would set up a comprehensive inspections regime
and limit the nuclear capabilities of Iran's most controversial nuclear
facilities: the underground bunker Fordow and the Arak heavy-water
reactor.
Secretary of State John Kerry said the bottom line is
that the deal would increase Iran's so-called breakout time — or the
time it could take Iran to make enough material for a nuclear bomb.
According to Kerry, once the agreement is implemented, Iran's breakout
time goes from two to three months to one year or more.
In
exchange, the United Nations and Western powers would drop sanctions in
phases, giving Iran an infusion of capital and, more importantly,
allowing it to rejoin international financial systems and sell more oil.
Announcing
the deal, Federica Mogherini, the High Representative of the European
Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, said the deal meant Iran
accepted that its nuclear program would remain "exclusively peaceful"
and would mark a "fundamental shift" in the way the country undertakes
its nuclear program.
"We delivered on what the world was hoping for: a shared commitment for peace," she said.
She added: "What we are announcing today is not only a deal; it's a good deal."
In a lot of ways, however, this is far from over: The agreement still has to be approved by various world capitals.
In
Washington, where Congress has two months to review the deal, it has
been unpopular among Republicans. (If you remember, despite
protestations from the White House, Republican Speaker John Boehner
invited Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu
to speak to Congress against the deal.)
Just
hours after the deal was announced, Boehner issued a scathing rebuke of
the deal, signaling the tough legislative fight ahead.
Boehner
said the deal outlined today fell short because it did not completely
dismantle Iran's nuclear capabilities. He said instead of curbing Iran's
nuclear ambitions, the deal was "likely to fuel a nuclear arms race
around the world."
"We will fight a bad deal that is wrong for our national security and wrong for our country," Boehner said.
Since
the Iranian Revolution in 1979, the nuclear issue has alienated Iran
and vexed Western powers. But reaching a sweeping solution has been a
foreign policy priority for President Obama.
Beginning with secret talks at the end of 2009, the U.S. and Iran laid the groundwork for an agreement.
With a phone call to Iranian President Hassan Rouhani in September 2013, Obama became the first American president to speak directly to an Iranian head of state since 1979.
That phone call opened the door for an interim deal, which
was reached in November 2013.
The P5+1 (the five permanent members of the United Nations Security
Council — U.S., Russia, China, U.K., France — plus Germany) and Iran
then
reached a framework accord in April.
After fits and starts and disagreements over issues that were touched
on in that accord, diplomats emerged in Vienna late today saying they
were ready to make history.
NPR's Peter Kenyon tells us that it
is still unclear what it would mean if the deal were to be rejected by
one or more of the parties.
"They could try to set a date for a
renewed effort, but as a practical matter, non-proliferation experts
say, it would kill the momentum and likely lead to a longer setback,"
Peter told us. "In 2005, it led to several years of buildup, hostility
and sanctions. But there isn't a rulebook for that eventuality."
It also depends on who rejects it. If it's the U.S. or Iran, "it probably means no quick return to the table," Peter says
After many months of principled diplomacy, the P5+1 -- the United
States, the United Kingdom, France, China, Russia and Germany -- along
with the European Union, have achieved a long-term comprehensive nuclear
deal with Iran that will verifiably prevent Iran from acquiring a
nuclear weapon and ensure that Iran's nuclear program will be
exclusively peaceful going forward.
This deal stands on the foundation of the Joint Plan of Action
(JPOA), achieved in November of 2013, and the framework for this Joint
Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), announced in Lausanne on April 2,
2015 that set the requirements for the deal with the P5+ 1 and Iran,
alongside the European Union announced today.
Now, with this deal in place, the U.S., our allies, and the
international community can know that tough, new requirements will keep
Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon. Here's how:
Blocking the Four Pathways to a Nuclear Weapon
Building a nuclear bomb requires either uranium or plutonium. But
thanks to this deal, Iran’s four possible ways to leverage those fissile
materials are blocked.
The Uranium pathways at Natanz and Fordow
Iran would needs two key elements to construct a uranium bomb: tens of
thousands of centrifuges and enough highly enriched uranium to produce
enough material to construct a uranium bomb.
There are currently two uranium enrichment facilities in the country: the Natanz facility and the Fordow facility.
Let’s take a look at Iran’s uranium stockpile first. Currently, Iran has a uranium stockpile to create 8 to ten nuclear bombs.
But thanks to this nuclear deal, Iran must reduce its stockpile of
uranium by 98%, and will keep its level of uranium enrichment at 3.67%
-- significantly below the enrichment level needed to create a bomb.
Iran also needs tens of thousands of centrifuges to create highly
enriched uranium for a bomb. Right now, Iran has nearly 20,000
centrifuges between their Natanz and Fordow facilities. But under this
deal, Iran must reduce its centrifuges to 6,104 for the next ten years.
No enrichment will be allowed at the Fordow facility at all, and the
only centrifuges Iran will be allowed to use are their oldest and least
efficient models.
In short, here’s the difference this historic deal will make:
The Plutonium pathway at the Arak reactor
The third way Iran could build a nuclear weapon is by using
weapons-grade plutonium. The only site where Iran could accomplish this
is the Arak reactor, a heavy-water nuclear reactor. Right now, this
reactor could be used in a weapons program, but under this deal, the
Arak reactor will be redesigned so it cannot produce any weapons-grade
plutonium. And all the spent fuel rods (which could also be source
material for weapons-grade plutonium) will be sent out of the country as
long as this reactor exists. What’s more, Iran will not be able to
build a single heavy-water reactor for at least 15 years. That means,
because of this deal, Iran will no longer have a source for
weapons-grade plutonium.
A covert pathway to building a secret nuclear program
The previous three pathways occur at facilities that Iran has
declared. But what if they try to build a nuclear program in secret?
That’s why this deal is so important. Under the new nuclear deal, Iran
has committed to extraordinary and robust monitoring, verification, and
inspection. International inspectors from the International Atomic
Energy Agency (IAEA) will not only be continuously monitoring every
element of Iran’s declared nuclear program, but they will also be
verifying that no fissile material is covertly carted off to a secret
location to build a bomb. And if IAEA inspectors become aware of a
suspicious location, Iran has agreed to implement the Additional
Protocol to their IAEA Safeguards Agreement, which will allow inspectors
to access and inspect any site they deem suspicious. Such suspicions
can be triggered by holes in the ground that could be uranium mines,
intelligence reports, unexplained purchases, or isotope alarms.
Basically, from the minute materials that could be used for a weapon
comes out of the ground to the minute it is shipped out of the country,
the IAEA will have eyes on it and anywhere Iran could try and take it:
What Iran’s Nuclear Program Would Look Like Without This Deal
As it stands today, Iran has a large stockpile of enriched uranium and
nearly 20,000 centrifuges, enough to create 8 to 10 bombs. If Iran
decided to rush to make a bomb without the deal in place, it would take
them 2 to 3 months until they had enough weapon-ready uranium (or highly
enriched uranium) to build their first nuclear weapon. Left unchecked,
that stockpile and that number of centrifuges would grow exponentially,
practically guaranteeing that Iran could create a bomb—and create one
quickly – if it so chose.
This deal removes the key elements needed to create a bomb and
prolongs Iran’s breakout time from 2-3 months to 1 year or more if Iran
broke its commitments. Importantly, Iran won’t garner any new sanctions
relief until the IAEA confirms that Iran has followed through with its
end of the deal. And should Iran violate any aspect of this deal, the
U.N., U.S., and E.U. can snap the sanctions that have crippled Iran’s
economy back into place.
Here’s what Iran has committed to:
The difference this deal is significant. Take a look at exactly what
Iran’s nuclear program will look like now under this deal:
