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NORTON META TAG
Showing posts with label imf. Show all posts
Showing posts with label imf. Show all posts
28 April 2016
DEMOCRACY NOW DAILY DIGEST 28APR16; Noam Chomsky: Young Bernie Sanders Supporters are a "Mobilized Force That Could Change the Country"
15 July 2015
Ελλάδα Το Κοινοβούλιο εγκρίνει τα μέτρα λιτότητας 15JUL15
Η ελληνική οικονομική κρίση δεν έχει τελειώσει, η συμφωνία αυτή ωθεί ακριβώς το έθνος πιο κοντά στην άβυσσο της συνολικής οικονομικής κατάρρευσης. Το φταίξιμο πηγαίνει σε όλα τα εμπλεκόμενα μέρη. Οι Έλληνες ψήφισαν με συνέπεια για τις κυβερνήσεις που απέτυχαν να πατάξει τους φοροφυγάδες. Η ελληνική κυβέρνηση εξαπάτησε τους δικούς τους ανθρώπους να πιστέψουν ότι θα μπορούσαν να έχουν μια σοσιαλιστική κοινωνία, χωρίς να χρειάζεται να πληρώσουν για αυτό. Και οι δανειστές συνέχισε να ρίχνει τα χρήματά τους σε ένα έθνος που εξαπάτησε να πιστέψει την καλή ζωή θα συνεχιστεί χωρίς να χρειαστεί να αναλάβει την ευθύνη για την καταβολή τίποτα πίσω. Οι δανειστές τυφλώθηκαν από τη δική τους απληστία, τα κέρδη που θα κάνουν όταν οι λογαριασμοί ήρθε οφείλονται. Τώρα τα κοτόπουλα έχουν έρθει στο σπίτι στη φωλιά. Εάν η Ελλάδα είναι να επιβιώσει ο πόνος θα πρέπει να μοιραστεί με όλους. Η πλούσια και οι εταιρείες θα πρέπει να πληρώνουν τους φόρους ίσες με εκείνες που επιβάλλονται στα ευρωπαϊκά έθνη να χρηματοδοτήσουν το είδος των προβλημάτων κοινωνικής πρόνοιας οι Έλληνες θέλουν. Μέσος Έλληνες θα πρέπει να αποδεχθεί δίκαιη, ανθρώπινη περικοπές στις συντάξεις και τα κοινωνικά προγράμματα που θα επιτρέψει σε αυτά τα προγράμματα να επιβιώνουν και να παρέχουν για τις λιγότερο μεταξύ τους. Οι δανειστές θα πρέπει να αποδεχθεί χρονοδιαγράμματα πληρωμών που θα επιτρέψει στην Ελλάδα να επουλωθούν οικονομικά, κοινωνικά και εθνικά. Θα συμβεί αυτό, είναι αρκετά περιθώρια στην παρούσα συμφωνία με την Ευρωπαϊκή Ένωση και αρκετό θάρρος στους Έλληνες πολιτικούς να σώσει το έθνος εκεί; Ή μήπως Ελλάδα έχουν ριχτεί με τους λύκους, για να περιέλθει στο μοναδικό Τρίτου Κόσμου έθνος στην ΕΕ; Ο Θεός να είναι με την Ελλάδα και τους ανθρώπους της. Από + NPR .....
Ενημερώθηκε στις 19:42 ET
στην Ελλάδα Κοινοβουλίου ενέκρινε τα αμφιλεγόμενα μέτρα λιτότητας χτύπησε τη Δευτέρα με τους πιστωτές της χώρας, αλλά η ψηφοφορία δημιουργήσει ρήγμα στο εσωτερικό του κυβερνώντος αριστεράς ΣΥΡΙΖΑ.
"Εμείς δεν πιστεύουμε σε αυτό, αλλά είμαστε αναγκασμένοι να εγκρίνει, "ο πρωθυπουργός Αλέξης Τσίπρας έκκληση στους νομοθέτες πριν από την ψηφοφορία.
Η ψηφοφορία ήταν 229 - 64, με έξι αποχές. Τριάντα δύο από τους ψήφισαν «όχι» προήλθε από τον ΣΥΡΙΖΑ νομοθέτες? έξι από αυτούς ψήφισαν σήμερα. Επίσης, ψηφίζοντας «όχι» ήταν μέλη της ακροδεξιάς Χρυσής Αυγής.
Τσίπρας χρειαζόταν την υποστήριξη της κυβέρνησης 121 νομοθέτες. Στο τέλος, 124 υποστήριξε το νομοσχέδιο.
Νικ Malkoutzis, αναπληρωτή αρχισυντάκτη της ελληνικής καθημερινής Καθημερινή της στην ελληνική γλώσσα, έγραψε ότι αυτό σημαίνει "Τσίπρας κρατά το κεφάλι πάνω από το νερό."
Το μέτρο που εγκρίθηκε σήμερα αυξάνει τους φόρους, τις περικοπές των δαπανών και την ανανέωση συνταξιοδοτικού συστήματος της χώρας. Η ψηφοφορία επιτρέπει στην Ελλάδα να αρχίσει διαπραγματεύσεις με τους πιστωτές της για ένα τρίτο πακέτο διάσωσης.
Ιωάννα Κακίση, που αναφέρει για NPR από την Αθήνα, λέει μονάδα δελτίο ειδήσεων μας ότι ο ΣΥΡΙΖΑ εξελέγη πριν από έξι μήνες μέχρι το τέλος της λιτότητας. Αυτή λέει:
Ήταν ανάμεσα στους εξέχοντες «όχι» οι ψηφοφόροι.
Τσίπρας είπε αν και η συμφωνία που υπεγράφη τη Δευτέρα ήταν πλημμελής, η εναλλακτική λύση, η έξοδος από την ευρωζώνη, ήταν χειρότερα.
Η ελάφρυνση του χρέους για την Ελλάδα ήταν το επίκεντρο μιας μελέτης που δημοσιεύθηκε την Τρίτη από το Διεθνές Νομισματικό Ταμείο, ένας από τους πιστωτές στην Ελλάδα, που ονομάζεται βάρος του χρέους της χώρας "πολύ μη βιώσιμο». Το Ταμείο δήλωσε ότι δεν θα στηρίξει το νέο πακέτο διάσωσης, εκτός αν η συμφωνία μείωσε το βάρος του χρέους της χώρας.
Η θέση αυτή βάζει το οποίο εδρεύει στην Ουάσινγκτον ΔΝΤ σε σύγκρουση με τους άλλους πιστωτές στην Ελλάδα - η ευρωζώνη και η Ευρωπαϊκή Κεντρική Τράπεζα. Οι New York Times επισημαίνει:
στην Ελλάδα Κοινοβουλίου ενέκρινε τα αμφιλεγόμενα μέτρα λιτότητας χτύπησε τη Δευτέρα με τους πιστωτές της χώρας, αλλά η ψηφοφορία δημιουργήσει ρήγμα στο εσωτερικό του κυβερνώντος αριστεράς ΣΥΡΙΖΑ.
"Εμείς δεν πιστεύουμε σε αυτό, αλλά είμαστε αναγκασμένοι να εγκρίνει, "ο πρωθυπουργός Αλέξης Τσίπρας έκκληση στους νομοθέτες πριν από την ψηφοφορία.
Η ψηφοφορία ήταν 229 - 64, με έξι αποχές. Τριάντα δύο από τους ψήφισαν «όχι» προήλθε από τον ΣΥΡΙΖΑ νομοθέτες? έξι από αυτούς ψήφισαν σήμερα. Επίσης, ψηφίζοντας «όχι» ήταν μέλη της ακροδεξιάς Χρυσής Αυγής.
Τσίπρας χρειαζόταν την υποστήριξη της κυβέρνησης 121 νομοθέτες. Στο τέλος, 124 υποστήριξε το νομοσχέδιο.
Νικ Malkoutzis, αναπληρωτή αρχισυντάκτη της ελληνικής καθημερινής Καθημερινή της στην ελληνική γλώσσα, έγραψε ότι αυτό σημαίνει "Τσίπρας κρατά το κεφάλι πάνω από το νερό."
Το μέτρο που εγκρίθηκε σήμερα αυξάνει τους φόρους, τις περικοπές των δαπανών και την ανανέωση συνταξιοδοτικού συστήματος της χώρας. Η ψηφοφορία επιτρέπει στην Ελλάδα να αρχίσει διαπραγματεύσεις με τους πιστωτές της για ένα τρίτο πακέτο διάσωσης.
Ιωάννα Κακίση, που αναφέρει για NPR από την Αθήνα, λέει μονάδα δελτίο ειδήσεων μας ότι ο ΣΥΡΙΖΑ εξελέγη πριν από έξι μήνες μέχρι το τέλος της λιτότητας. Αυτή λέει:
"Οι διαπραγματεύσεις αυτές απέτυχαν, διότι οι πιστωτές αρνήθηκαν το μόνο θέμα που θα θέσει την Ελλάδα σε βιώσιμη πορεία και πάλι," Βαρουφάκης είπε, «το θέμα της ελάφρυνσης του χρέους."«[Μ] μεταλλεύματος από το ήμισυ της Κεντρικής Επιτροπής του αριστερού κόμματος υπέγραψαν μια δήλωση που χτυπά η συμφωνία υπεγράφη από τον αρχηγό τους, τον πρωθυπουργό ο Αλέξης Τσίπρας. Ο πρώην υπουργός Οικονομικών Γιάννης Βαρουφάκης σε σύγκριση με τη συμφωνία με τη Συνθήκη των Βερσαλλιών του 1919, τα οποία συνθλίβονται Βαϊμάρη της Γερμανίας και βοήθησε τροφοδοτήσουν τον Δεύτερο Παγκόσμιο Πόλεμο. "
Ήταν ανάμεσα στους εξέχοντες «όχι» οι ψηφοφόροι.
Τσίπρας είπε αν και η συμφωνία που υπεγράφη τη Δευτέρα ήταν πλημμελής, η εναλλακτική λύση, η έξοδος από την ευρωζώνη, ήταν χειρότερα.
Η ελάφρυνση του χρέους για την Ελλάδα ήταν το επίκεντρο μιας μελέτης που δημοσιεύθηκε την Τρίτη από το Διεθνές Νομισματικό Ταμείο, ένας από τους πιστωτές στην Ελλάδα, που ονομάζεται βάρος του χρέους της χώρας "πολύ μη βιώσιμο». Το Ταμείο δήλωσε ότι δεν θα στηρίξει το νέο πακέτο διάσωσης, εκτός αν η συμφωνία μείωσε το βάρος του χρέους της χώρας.
Η θέση αυτή βάζει το οποίο εδρεύει στην Ουάσινγκτον ΔΝΤ σε σύγκρουση με τους άλλους πιστωτές στην Ελλάδα - η ευρωζώνη και η Ευρωπαϊκή Κεντρική Τράπεζα. Οι New York Times επισημαίνει:
«Η συμφωνία που ανακοινώθηκε τη Δευτέρα το πρωί δήλωσε ότι οι πιστωτές δεν θα συγχωρήσει οποιαδήποτε ελληνικού χρέους και προσφέρεται μόνο μια γενική διαβεβαίωση για περαιτέρω συζητήσεις σχετικά με τη μείωση των ετήσιων πληρωμών του χρέους από απλώνει τις προθεσμίες καταβολής ή τη μείωση των επιτοκίων.
"Η απόφαση του Ταμείου να πάει δημόσια με τη στάση της, πρότεινε ότι το σχέδιο συμφωνίας θα είναι μόνο το σημείο εκκίνησης για περαιτέρω διαπραγματεύσεις σχετικά με τη βιωσιμότητα του χρέους στην Ελλάδα και την προθυμία των δανειστών της να αναγνωρίσει ότι μπορεί να μην πάρει όλα τα χρήματά τους πίσω."
Η Ελλάδα οφείλει στους πιστωτές της περίπου 330 δισεκατομμυρίων δολαρίων, σύμφωνα με την Times, ένα ποσό το οποίο έχει εκτιμηθεί ότι είναι 177 τοις εκατό του ακαθάριστου εγχώριου προϊόντος της χώρας.
Greece's Parliament Approves Austerity Measures 15JUL15
THE Greek financial crisis isn't over, this agreement just pushes the nation closer to the abyss of total economic collapse. The blame goes to all parties involved. The Greek people consistently voted for governments that failed to crack down of tax evaders. The Greek government deceived their own people into believing they could have a socialist society without having to pay for it. And the lenders kept pouring their money into a nation that deceived itself into believing the good life would continue without having to accept responsibility for paying anything back. The lenders were blinded by their own greed, the profits they would make when the bills came due. Now the chickens have come home to roost. If Greece is to survive the pain will have to be shared by all. The rich and companies will have to pay taxes equal to those levied in the European nations to fund the kind of social welfare problems the Greeks want. Average Greeks will have to accept fair, humane cuts in pensions and social programs that will allow these programs to survive and provide for the least among them. The lenders should have to accept payment schedules that will allow Greece to heal financially, socially and nationally. Will this happen, is there enough leeway in this agreement with the European Union and enough courage among Greek politicians to save the nation? Or has Greece been thrown to the wolves, to devolve into the only Third World nation in the E.U? God be with Greece and her people. From +NPR .....
Updated at 7:42 p.m. ET
Greece's Parliament approved the controversial austerity measures struck Monday with the country's creditors, but the vote created a rift within the ruling left-wing Syriza party.
"We don't believe in it, but we are forced to adopt it," Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras appealed to lawmakers before the vote.
The vote was 229-64, with six abstentions. Thirty-two of the "no" votes came from Syriza lawmakers; six of them voted present. Also voting "no" were members of the far-right Golden Dawn.
Tsipras needed the support of 121 government lawmakers. In the end, 124 backed the bill.
Nick Malkoutzis, deputy editor of the Greek daily Kathimerini's English edition, tweeted that this means "Tsipras keeps head above water."
The measure approved today raises taxes, cuts spending and overhauls the country's pensions system. The vote allows Greece to begin negotiations with its creditors on a third bailout.
Joanna Kakissis, who is reporting for NPR from Athens, tells our Newscast unit that Syriza was elected six months ago to end austerity. She says:
He was among the prominent "no" voters.
Tsipras said though the deal signed Monday was flawed, the alternative, an exit from the eurozone, was worse.
Debt relief for Greece was the focus of a study released Tuesday by the International Monetary Fund, one of Greece's creditors, which called the country's debt burden "highly unsustainable." The fund said it would not support the new bailout unless the agreement reduced the country's debt burden.
That position puts the Washington-based IMF in conflict with Greece's other creditors — the eurozone and the European Central Bank. The New York Times notes:
Greece's Parliament approved the controversial austerity measures struck Monday with the country's creditors, but the vote created a rift within the ruling left-wing Syriza party.
"We don't believe in it, but we are forced to adopt it," Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras appealed to lawmakers before the vote.
The vote was 229-64, with six abstentions. Thirty-two of the "no" votes came from Syriza lawmakers; six of them voted present. Also voting "no" were members of the far-right Golden Dawn.
Tsipras needed the support of 121 government lawmakers. In the end, 124 backed the bill.
Nick Malkoutzis, deputy editor of the Greek daily Kathimerini's English edition, tweeted that this means "Tsipras keeps head above water."
The measure approved today raises taxes, cuts spending and overhauls the country's pensions system. The vote allows Greece to begin negotiations with its creditors on a third bailout.
Joanna Kakissis, who is reporting for NPR from Athens, tells our Newscast unit that Syriza was elected six months ago to end austerity. She says:
"These negotiations failed because the creditors refused the only issue that would put Greece on a viable path again," Varoufakis said, "the issue of debt relief.""[M]ore than half of the leftist party's central committee signed a statement slamming the deal signed by their leader, Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras. Former Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis compared the deal to the 1919 Treaty of Versailles, which crushed Weimar Germany and helped fuel World War II."
He was among the prominent "no" voters.
Tsipras said though the deal signed Monday was flawed, the alternative, an exit from the eurozone, was worse.
Debt relief for Greece was the focus of a study released Tuesday by the International Monetary Fund, one of Greece's creditors, which called the country's debt burden "highly unsustainable." The fund said it would not support the new bailout unless the agreement reduced the country's debt burden.
That position puts the Washington-based IMF in conflict with Greece's other creditors — the eurozone and the European Central Bank. The New York Times notes:
"The deal announced Monday morning stated that the creditors would not forgive any Greek debt and offered only a general assurance of further discussions about reducing annual debt payments by stretching out payment periods or reducing interest rates.
"The fund's decision to go public with its stance suggested that the draft agreement would be only the starting point for further negotiations about the sustainability of Greece's debt and the willingness of its lenders to recognize they might not get all their money back."
Greece owes its creditors about $330 billion, according to the Times, an amount that has been estimated to be 177 percent of the country's gross domestic product.
24 April 2014
Chaos in Crimea as Capital Flight from Russia Continues & (VIDEOS) A Struggle Amongst Oligarchs in Ukraine Pts.1&2 22APR&7&9MAR14
THE U.S. government and the free world must increase sanction on Russia, that is the only way putin's plans for anschluss of eastern Ukraine can be stopped. Russia's people must suffer economically, the Russian business community must become a pariah in the world economy as sanctions have made Iran's until the Russian people force their government to change it's policies. They are already starting to feel, in a small way, the consequences of putin's aggression. Seizure of Ukrainian Crimea is costing the Russian economy and people billions of dollars. We must make it cost them more, make them feel serious, long lasting economic pain. At the same time, we will do no favors for the people of Ukraine if the financial aid we provide props up undemocratic, corrupt oligarchs. Government and economic reform is critical for Ukraine to survive as a free and democratic nation and aid from the U.S. and free world must be tied to realizing these reforms. If Ukraine fails in reforming their nation they will be no better than Russia, and if that happens then we should leave them to suffer the consequences of their political and economic vices......
Eternal Hope
It is easy for a country like Russia to grab chunks of territory from a smaller country like Ukraine, especially with its modernized special forces.
The abilities the Russian military has displayed are not only important to the high-stakes drama in Ukraine, they also have implications for the security of Moldova, Georgia, Central Asian nations and even the Central Europe nations that are members of NATO. The dexterity with which the Russians have operated in Ukraine is a far cry from the bludgeoning artillery, airstrikes and surface-to-surface missiles used to retake Grozny, the Chechen capital, from Chechen separatists in 2000. In that conflict, the notion of avoiding collateral damage to civilians and civilian infrastructure appeared to be alien.But it is a lot harder to actually govern. Chaos is running rampant in Crimea and is growing as few basic services and institutions there are functioning. For instance, there are massive waiting lists for the passports that were supposed to be issued by the Russian government. Only 200 a day are being issued, with waiting lists of over 4,000 people. And there is plenty more.
Since then Russia has sought to develop more effective ways of projecting power in the “near abroad,” the non-Russian nations that emerged from the collapse of the Soviet Union. It has tried to upgrade its military, giving priority to its special forces, airborne and naval infantry — “rapid reaction” abilities that were “road tested” in Crimea, according to Roger McDermott, a senior fellow at the Jamestown Foundation.
In fact, switching countries has brought disarray to virtually all aspects of life. Crimeans find themselves needing new things every day — driver’s licenses and license plates, insurance and prescriptions, passports and school curriculums. The Russians who have flooded in seeking land deals and other opportunities have been equally frustrated by the logistical and bureaucratic roadblocks. “The radical reconstruction of everything is required, so these problems are multiplying,” said Vladimir P. Kazarin, 66, a philology professor at Taurida National University. (The university’s name, which derives from Greek history, is scheduled to be changed.) “It will take two or three years for all this chaos to be worked out, yet we have to keep on living.”A massive wave of Russian land buyers has flocked into Crimea. The problem -- there are no land offices in Crimea that are functioning; therefore, no land transfers can be conducted. People who do business there had better hope their customers pay, because there are no court systems there to collect debts. If Russia were to annex East Ukraine like they did Crimea, this sort of chaos would be multiplied many times over. And that is on top of the guerrilla warfare that Ukrainian partisans would likely begin to wage at some point, capitalizing on nostalgia for Ukraine, when everything actually ran smoother. It is really interesting that people are all of a sudden nostalgic for Ukraine in Crimea when Russia was able to exploit nostalgia for the old Soviet Union to seize Crimea. Vice President Joe Biden pledged $50 million more to Ukraine during his visit. But corruption there is so rampant that it explains why the US is unwilling to commit resources to prop that country up. Biden also called it out:
But the vice president had some tough words for Ukraine’s government, saying that governmental and judicial corruption could undermine the gains made since pro-Western leaders came to power after massive protests forced out President Viktor Yanukovych, a Moscow ally, in February. “You have to fight the cancer of corruption that is endemic in your system right now,” said Biden. “You need a court system that not only you and your people but the rest of the world assumes can actually adjudicate fairly disputes among people.”But given the reports out of Crimea, the corruption in Ukraine is nothing compared to the chaos that is running rampant in Crimea right now. Russia can talk all it wants to about turning it into a gambling zone or rehabilitating the Tatars, who were sent to Siberia by Stalin in 1944. And they can talk all they want about building a massive bridge there. But they have lost sight of the basics of providing actual services. And if someone complains too much, there are always the friendly green men in uniforms without insignias who will pay you a friendly visit. Russian special forces and their allies have seized two more buildings in East Ukraine yesterday.
Late on the night of April 21 – during a holiday extension of Easter – some 20 armed, masked men in camouflage took the Kramatorsk city police station, the Interior Ministry reported. As a result, the local police chief was kidnapped. The same night, 20 armed men seized the local Kramatorsk SBU building. The Interior Ministry also reported that around 10 armed men captured the training grounds of Ukraine’s Interior Troops in the village of Vasylivka in the Yasynuvatsky District of Donetsk Oblast.This will only serve to antagonize the US, which will bring new sanctions to bear. The losers will be the oligarchs in Ukraine as well as the Kremlin. The oligarchs:
Hryvnia earnings will fail to grow as fast as revalued dollar and Euro-denominated debts, so covenant and loan defaults will multiply, say analysts at European banks with exposure to the Ukrainian oligarchs’ debts. Audits promised by the IMF of the oligarch-owned banks – Bank Credit Dnepr (Pinchuk), PrivatBank (Igor Kolomoisky), First Ukrainian International Bank (Rinat Akhmetov) – are expected to put additional pressure on their owners to stump up the cash to recapitalize them. The capacity of this trio, and other eastern Ukrainian oligarchs, to keep their businesses solvent is now held hostage by the terms of the Geneva agreement of April 17. If neither Pravy Sektor nor the pro-Russian groups agree to lay down their arms, halt drive-by and sniper killings, and restore municipal and regional authority; if no presidential election can be conducted in a month’s time for the voters of the region – if at last Russian forces are deployed to re-establish law and order because the Kiev regime cannot, then Pinchuk, Kolomoisky, Akhmetov and the others are likely, according to Ukrainian sources, to lose the power to keep their assets and incomes.And the capital flight out of Russia continues as companies weigh the costs of doing business in light of impending sanctions.
“The eastern oligarchs,” says a US source close to their businesses, “can’t gain influence with Kiev and the US Government unless they crack down on the locals. If they do, they will be Russian targets. They can’t advance. They can’t retreat. They can only disappear from the reckoning that’s coming. It’s already happened to Pinchuk. It’s going to happen to Akhmetov [right], then Kolomoisky.”
Ilan Berman at the Wall Street Journal published an article yesterday, “What Putin Is Costing Russia,” citing Alexi Kudrin, former finance minister of Russia, who projects $160 billion of capital flight this year. This, in answer to the question: “Just how much is Vladimir Putin’s Ukrainian adventure actually costing Russia?” Only three weeks ago, we cited Moscow News‘ report of $-65-70 billion for the first quarter, based on estimates from Andrei Klepach, Russia’s deputy economy minister who was quoted as saying it would be “closer to $70 billion.” So now it seems there is to be quite a bit more before the year’s over. The foreign currency reserves are estimated to be $400 billion.So, almost half of Russia's foreign currency reserves would disappear by the end of the year if this keeps up. Russia can continue on this adventurism for 1-2 years at tops. But then the bill will come due.
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Bio
Aleksandr Buzgalin is a Professor of Political Economy at Moscow State University. He is also editor of the independent democratic left magazine Alternatives, and is a coordinator of the Russian social movement Alternatives, author of more then 20 books and hundreds of articles, translated into English, German and many other languages.24 January 2012
Weekly Wrap: Greece and American banks 20JAN12 & IMF sees rising recession risk from euro credit crisis 24JAN12
HERE is a frightening warning about what may be on the way for the American and world economies. Listen to the story (click the link below the picture) from Marketplace from APR / NPR about the very possible Greek default / bankruptcy and then read the story about the world economy slowing down from the Washington Post......


In a sobering trio of reports on growth, public debt and financial stability, the agency described global trade and investment as waning and depicted the world as perhaps one shock away from a serious downturn. The epicenter of the economic turmoil remains the euro zone, where political leaders have not committed the money needed to prop up weakened governments and banks, thereby threatening to create a cycle of “self-perpetuating pessimism” that could undermine the recovery, the IMF said.
Whether the trigger is a government default in Greece, a bank failure or some other traumatic event, “the world could be plunged into another recession,” said Olivier Blanchard, the IMF’s economic counselor. “The world recovery, which was weak in the first place, is in danger of stalling.”
The agency’s latest forecasts suggest the process may be underway. Projected worldwide economic growth for 2012 was trimmed to 3.25 percent from the 4 percent rate forecast in September. China and India, which have become major engines of global growth, are forecast to cool to around 8.2 percent and 7 percent respectively. The IMF projects that the euro zone will fall into recession and contract by about 0.5 percent this year.
The U.S. economy’s projected growth rate has been holding steady at 1.8 percent since September, the IMF said.
The new reports suggest that the world economy is being undermined by some of the policies the IMF has recommended in recent months to address government debt and strengthen Europe’s banking system. Along with other recent reports issued by the World Bank and private organizations, the IMF studies underscore the major quandry facing policymakers in the United States, Europe and elsewhere as they confront high unemployment rates, slow growth and in some cases the threat of public unrest.
Growth is now so precarious, the agency said, that deficit reduction in the United States and stronger European nations such as Germany should take a back seat.
The IMF said the “accident prone” U.S. political system is at risk of pushing too hard on the brakes. If Congress does not renew payroll tax cuts and extend unemployment benefits that are set to expire in February, government spending this year would drop by more than 2 percent of the country’s annual output, “with negative repercussions for the still unsettled economic outlook,” the agency said.
The Obama administration and Republicans in Congress have been battling over whether and how to extend the payroll tax cuts and jobless benefits. IMF officials say they worry that these political fights are distracting the U.S. government from developing a plan to address chronic problems of long-term spending on health care and retirement.
The IMF has begun pushing countries in Europe and beyond to gird for the worst. The agency wants euro zone nations to commit hundreds of billions of dollars to potential bailouts of Italy and Spain. Those countries are forecast to contract sharply next year, with a downturn of more than 2 percent in Italy making it that much harder for its government to meet its spending targets and retain the faith of investors on world bond markets. The IMF also wants to boost its own war chest and is pressing world economic powers to make an additional $500 billion available should it be needed.
The IMF is one of several organizations offering downbeat assessments. The World Bank last week projected even slower worldwide growth, of just 2.5 percent, and also forecast a euro zone recession.
In a separate study released Tuesday, the Institute of International Finance said that the flow of capital into developing nations dropped by nearly 20 percent last year — a worrisome decline that also occurred during the 2008 financial crisis.
The IIF attributed much of that drop to European banks pulling out of investments and lending in Eastern Europe and Asia. This is one of the most direct ways in which Europe’s troubles are affecting the rest of the world. The decline poses particular problems for Eastern European nations such as Hungary and Ukraine which, unlike some countries in Asia, do not have access to local sources of money when French, Italian or German investors disappear.
The downturn in investment is partly the consequence of policies enacted in Europe to try to cope with its crisis. In this instance, European banks are retreating from other parts of the world to comply with stiffer regulations the European Union imposed last year — partly at the urging of the IMF — that require the firms to maintain larger capital buffers against possible losses.
The requirements are combining with government austerity measures to crimp growth.
The speed with which Europe demanded its banks meet the new requirements “is having a drastic negative impact,” said IIF chief economist Philip Suttle. The IIF, which represents the world’s major financial institutions, has been fighting to soften the impact of financial industry regulations crafted after the 2008 crisis.
In its new reports, the IMF shared the concern that Europe’s move to recapitalize its banking system could be damaging.
To limit the fallout, the agency said the euro zone should use taxpayer money from around the region to bolster banks that need help as well — just as euro zone countries are pooling resources to back troubled governments.
Weekly Wrap: Greece and American banks
STAN HONDA/AFP/Getty Images
Reviewing the week's headlines on Wall Street.
<iframe src="http://www.marketplace.org/node/50228/player/popout" width="600" height="300" ></iframe>
<iframe src="http://www.marketplace.org/node/50228/player/popout" width="600" height="300" ></iframe>
Interview by
John Carney from CNBC and Felix Salmon from Reuters discuss this week's news on Wall Street and beyond.
If Greece doesn't get a deal:
If Greece doesn't get a deal:
John Carney: So Greece has, on March 20th, a tremendous amount of debt that's coming due. They do not have the money to pay it off. This will be a gigantic default that would put several European banks in trouble, and we would have an enormous international financial calamity.For more analysis, listen to the full audio above.
Felix Salmon: I don't think it would be that bad, to be honest. Well, it is a default, there's no two ways about it. If you don't pay back $14 billion when it's due, that's a default. The only question is: Will you replace that amount that you owed with something else and keep on paying that, or will you just owe that $14 billion and have that paper be in default?
About the author
Kai Ryssdal is the host and senior editor of Marketplace, public radio’s program on business and the economy. Follow Kai on Twitter @kairyssdalIMF sees rising recession risk from euro credit crisis
By Howard Schneider
The global economy is slowing sharply and is at far greater risk of recession than was thought just months ago with Europe’s debt crisis creating “fertile ground” for a rapid collapse, the International Monetary Fund warned on Tuesday.In a sobering trio of reports on growth, public debt and financial stability, the agency described global trade and investment as waning and depicted the world as perhaps one shock away from a serious downturn. The epicenter of the economic turmoil remains the euro zone, where political leaders have not committed the money needed to prop up weakened governments and banks, thereby threatening to create a cycle of “self-perpetuating pessimism” that could undermine the recovery, the IMF said.
Whether the trigger is a government default in Greece, a bank failure or some other traumatic event, “the world could be plunged into another recession,” said Olivier Blanchard, the IMF’s economic counselor. “The world recovery, which was weak in the first place, is in danger of stalling.”
The agency’s latest forecasts suggest the process may be underway. Projected worldwide economic growth for 2012 was trimmed to 3.25 percent from the 4 percent rate forecast in September. China and India, which have become major engines of global growth, are forecast to cool to around 8.2 percent and 7 percent respectively. The IMF projects that the euro zone will fall into recession and contract by about 0.5 percent this year.
The U.S. economy’s projected growth rate has been holding steady at 1.8 percent since September, the IMF said.
The new reports suggest that the world economy is being undermined by some of the policies the IMF has recommended in recent months to address government debt and strengthen Europe’s banking system. Along with other recent reports issued by the World Bank and private organizations, the IMF studies underscore the major quandry facing policymakers in the United States, Europe and elsewhere as they confront high unemployment rates, slow growth and in some cases the threat of public unrest.
Growth is now so precarious, the agency said, that deficit reduction in the United States and stronger European nations such as Germany should take a back seat.
The IMF said the “accident prone” U.S. political system is at risk of pushing too hard on the brakes. If Congress does not renew payroll tax cuts and extend unemployment benefits that are set to expire in February, government spending this year would drop by more than 2 percent of the country’s annual output, “with negative repercussions for the still unsettled economic outlook,” the agency said.
The Obama administration and Republicans in Congress have been battling over whether and how to extend the payroll tax cuts and jobless benefits. IMF officials say they worry that these political fights are distracting the U.S. government from developing a plan to address chronic problems of long-term spending on health care and retirement.
The IMF has begun pushing countries in Europe and beyond to gird for the worst. The agency wants euro zone nations to commit hundreds of billions of dollars to potential bailouts of Italy and Spain. Those countries are forecast to contract sharply next year, with a downturn of more than 2 percent in Italy making it that much harder for its government to meet its spending targets and retain the faith of investors on world bond markets. The IMF also wants to boost its own war chest and is pressing world economic powers to make an additional $500 billion available should it be needed.
The IMF is one of several organizations offering downbeat assessments. The World Bank last week projected even slower worldwide growth, of just 2.5 percent, and also forecast a euro zone recession.
In a separate study released Tuesday, the Institute of International Finance said that the flow of capital into developing nations dropped by nearly 20 percent last year — a worrisome decline that also occurred during the 2008 financial crisis.
The IIF attributed much of that drop to European banks pulling out of investments and lending in Eastern Europe and Asia. This is one of the most direct ways in which Europe’s troubles are affecting the rest of the world. The decline poses particular problems for Eastern European nations such as Hungary and Ukraine which, unlike some countries in Asia, do not have access to local sources of money when French, Italian or German investors disappear.
The downturn in investment is partly the consequence of policies enacted in Europe to try to cope with its crisis. In this instance, European banks are retreating from other parts of the world to comply with stiffer regulations the European Union imposed last year — partly at the urging of the IMF — that require the firms to maintain larger capital buffers against possible losses.
The requirements are combining with government austerity measures to crimp growth.
The speed with which Europe demanded its banks meet the new requirements “is having a drastic negative impact,” said IIF chief economist Philip Suttle. The IIF, which represents the world’s major financial institutions, has been fighting to soften the impact of financial industry regulations crafted after the 2008 crisis.
In its new reports, the IMF shared the concern that Europe’s move to recapitalize its banking system could be damaging.
To limit the fallout, the agency said the euro zone should use taxpayer money from around the region to bolster banks that need help as well — just as euro zone countries are pooling resources to back troubled governments.
Labels:
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