Scots decide today whether to end 300 years of union with Great Britain and go it alone as they cast ballots in
that is sure to have a lasting impact no matter which way it goes.
Public
opinion polls in recent days have suggested that Scotland is very
evenly split on the question and that the vote could be extremely close.
The options are to vote "yes" or "no" to the question: "Should Scotland
be an independent country?"
As
NPR's Ari Shapiro reports from Edinburgh, British Prime Minister David
Cameron made one final emotional appeal to keep the United Kingdom
intact.
Speaking in Aberdeen, Cameron warned that a vote for
independence would precipitate a "painful divorce." In the past he said
said that a decision by Scots to leave the union would leave him
heartbroken.
Acknowledging the unpopularity of his conservative
government among more liberal-minded Scots, Cameron said bluntly: "If
you don't like me - I won't be here forever. But if you leave the U.K.,
that will be forever."
President
Obama also weighed in on the referendum just 24 hours before the voting
began, saying he'd like to see the United Kingdom remain "strong,
robust and united." Former President
"I
got a fantastic night's sleep, obviously there's a great deal of
anticipation, it's a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity, it's a day that
everybody will remember," he said.
"We're in the hands of the
people of Scotland and there's no safer place to be than in the hands of
the Scottish people," Salmond said.
that he believed that "radical" constitutional change was in store for the U.K. as a direct result of the vote.
"I think it will have major implications for the U.K. regardless of the result of the referendum," he said.
Yes
campaign supporters for an independent Scotland are seen as Prime
Minister David Cameron prepares to address a group in August 2014 in
Glasgow, Scotland. Photo by Jeff J Mitchell/Getty Images
On
September 18, Scotland’s citizens will go to the polls to answer a
really big question: “Should Scotland be an independent country?”
This
question, of course, raises lots of other questions about what a yes
vote might mean for the future of Scotland, England and the United
Kingdom. Here are some basic answers to some basic questions about the
upcoming vote.
Haven’t we been through this before?
Well,
yes. Sort of. In 1979, there was a referendum for “Scottish
devolution,” which would have meant shifting some major governing powers
from London to Scotland. For example, the vote would have given
Scotland the power to set tuition costs at public universities along
with the income tax rate. But to pass, it required a yes vote from at
least 40 percent of Scotland’s entire population, and while it received a
majority among voters, it fell short of that threshold.
In 1997,
the Labour party reclaimed power, and another referendum for devolution
was held. The Scottish Parliament was then established, and some powers,
including the income tax rate, were transferred to Edinburgh, Scotland
and away from the UK Parliament at Westminster.
A family in Crieff, Scotland show their support for the Yes Scotland campaign.
Photo by Sarah McHaney
Why do so many Scots want independence from the United Kingdom?
A
quick reminder: The United Kingdom Parliament is made up of members
from England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. They vote on certain
laws that govern the entire United Kingdom. Then there’s the Scottish
Parliament, which exercises some governing powers over Scotland alone.
The
majority in the UK Parliament is held by the Conservative Party and led
by British Prime Minister David Cameron. However, only one of the 50
members of that Parliament representing Scotland belong to the
Conservative party. (The rest are from the Labour party, the Scottish
National Party and the Liberal Democrat party.) Because of this, many
Scots feel that decisions made in London are too far removed from the
public opinion of the Scottish voters. The term often used to describe
this disconnect is “democratic deficit.”
Plus, some believe
Scotland is already well on its way to independence. The country has its
own legal, education and health-care system, said Angus Miller of Yes
Scotland, the national campaign for independence:
“There are a
number of ways Scotland has been effectively self-governing, and having
political responsibility in the Scottish Parliament has been great to
show the difference in political outlook and economic needs and
interests in Scotland versus the rest of the UK.”
A Waterstone’s book store in Glasgow promotes a voter’s guide to the election.
Photo by Sarah McHaney.
Who supports Scottish independence?
Men are
far more likely than women to vote for independence, according to the
Scottish Centre for Social Research.
In August, that organization’s Scottish Social Attitudes survey found
that 39 percent of men supported an independent Scotland compared to 27
percent of women. Another recent survey by the video platform
TubeMogul,
showed that among young voters, age 19 to 45, about 56 percent
supported independence, while among older voters, age 46 and over, 57
percent backed the union and only 43 percent supported independence. The
same survey found that the farther you are from the Scotland-England
border, the more likely you are to support independence.
The
Scottish National Party, which holds a majority in the Scottish
Parliament, has championed the independence movement for decades. Alex
Salmond heads the party and is first minister of Scotland. He also leads
Yes Scotland.
Who wants to keep the UK together?
All
other major political parties support Scotland remaining in the union.
Prime Minister David Cameron has made emotional public pleas for
Scotland to stay with the UK.
“Centuries of history hang in the
balance,” Cameron said in February during a campaign speech in London’s
Olympic Park. “If people vote yes in September then Scotland will
become an independent country. There will be no going back, and as I’ve
made clear, this is a decision for solely those in Scotland to make. But
let the message ring out from Manchester to Motherwell, from
Pembrokeshire to Perth, from us to the people of Scotland — let the
message be this: We want you to stay.”
One difficulty, according
to the Better Together, the leading campaign to maintain the union, is
that those voting against independence have to check “no,” and some
voters have said they’re uncomfortable with the idea of rejecting
Scotland.
“Let the message ring out from Manchester to
Motherwell, from Pembrokeshire to Perth, from us to the people of
Scotland. Let the message be this: We want you to stay.”Better
Together has addressed this as part of their campaign. Signs and bumper
stickers read “I love Scotland. I’m saying ‘No, Thanks’.”
David Whitton is a spokesperson for Better Together and former member of Parliament with the Labour Party.
“Just
because you’re voting no doesn’t mean you’re not just as passionate
about the future of Scotland as those who are voting yes,” Whitton said.
A
slew of celebrities have supported both sides, but a notable
contribution for the Better Together campaign came from J.K Rowling.
In an open letter on her website
she wrote, “I’d prefer to stay and contribute to a country that has
given me more than I can easily express. It is because I love this
country that I want it to thrive.”
What are the chances the referendum will pass?
No voters are ahead, according to recent polls, but the gap is shrinking.
According to ScotCen Social Research,
an independent research institute in Edinburgh, the average of the most
recent polls show about 42 percent voting yes to 48 percent no. Nearly
11 percent say they are undecided. A simple majority is needed for the
referendum to pass.
On September 2, YouGov conducted
a poll for the Sun newspaper
that found the yes voters just 6 points behind the union supporters.
That’s down from a 14-point split in late-August. The consensus is that
the yes campaign is gaining votes, but not necessarily enough to win the
election.
If it does pass, where does it leave Scotland? Would the country need an army? A new currency?
Scotland
does not have an army, and some analysts say that no Navy would leave
Scottish waters vulnerable. But independence supporters say Scotland has
not favored military action in the past and an independent Scotland
could continue to play a peaceful role.
“The UK is currently an
important player in international affairs, but it’s not always speaking
with Scottish voices,” said Yes Scotland’s Miller. “Going into Iraq was
overwhelmingly rejected by the Scottish public. We would look to Norway
and Denmark as small countries to model our foreign policy after. They
are members of NATO, have small militaries, but there is really great
potential for Scotland to be a leader and diplomat for peace.”
The
currency Scotland would use is hotly debated. Alex Salmond of Yes
Scotland assured yes voters that Scotland will enter into a currency
union with the rest of the UK (like the Euro, but on a smaller scale)
and maintain the pound Sterling, which it currently uses. During the
first televised debate in August, Salmond was pressed on a back-up plan
in case the UK did not want to enter into a currency union, but he did
not offer one.
“The economic arguments are key and it is the
weakness of the yes campaign that they cannot say what currency they
will be using,” Whitton said. “They say there will be a currency union
with England, but the chancellor has said there won’t be, because it’s
not in the interest of the rest of the UK. If you don’t know what
currency you’ll have, that leaves a huge question mark for businesses
and the financial market.”
Many large businesses have come together and signed an open letter
urging people to vote no for this reason.
Both
campaigns are doing door to door canvassing trying to convince
undecided voters and encourage a high turnout. Photo by Sarah McHaney.
Would an independent Scotland be economically stronger?
This
is probably the biggest point of contention for both campaigns. Voters
have received conflicting answers to this important question. Those who
are pro-independence hail the existence of a vast reservoir of offshore
oil in the North Sea, to which Scotland has a claim. Supporters of
Scottish independence also point to economic potential in their wind and
tidal energy farms. But no voters say that without the infrastructure
and tax breaks England provides, Scotland won’t be able to retrieve the
oil or have the ability to capture wind and tidal energy. In May, the
Scottish and UK governments released separate economic outlooks for an
independent Scotland, and not surprisingly came to different
conclusions.
The Scottish Government
wrote,
“Scotland would begin as an independent country with a sustainable
fiscal position in 2016-17. Key fiscal aggregates would be similar to,
or stronger than, both the UK and the G7 group of industrialised
countries as a whole.”
The UK Government, on the other hand,
wrote,
“The projections show that, in the years ahead, an independent Scottish
state would face a substantially greater fiscal challenge than if
Scotland remains part of the UK.”
John McLaren, an economics
professor at Glasgow University, and his think tank, Fiscal Affairs,
published its own report last month, which showed that as an independent
country, Scotland likely would be worse off — at first.
“Our
paper looked at two different time periods, two different angles,”
McLaren said. “It looked at the point of devolution, which will be
2016/2017. At that point we looked at the narrower range of likely
outcomes. We found Scotland would be worse off than the UK in annual
deficit,” McLaren told the NewsHour.
But beyond that, McLaren said Scotland’s economic status would depend on the price of oil.
“The
longer-term analysis didn’t draw any conclusions without being able to
predict the price of oil,” he said. “There are too many uncertainties
for either campaign to really be able to give a specific number as to
how much better or worse off Scotland will be.”
Would an independent Scotland be part of the EU?
Another point of contention is fueled by the UK possibly having its own referendum on whether or not to stay in the EU.
Public opinion in Scotland strongly favors being in the EU, but the UK as a whole would likely vote to leave.
Whether
the existing legal framework means Scotland would have to reapply to
become part of the EU or would have automatic membership is the central
issue. The European Policy Center
laid out the legalities of each side.
The yes campaign assures voters there would be no break in membership.
“The
great majority of legal and political opinion say Scotland’s EU
membership would be uninterrupted,” Miller said. “It’s in Europe’s
interest for Scotland to be in the EU. We have 25 percent of the EU’s
offshore wind and tidal energy potential, we have 60 percent of the EU’s
oil reserves, we have a fifth of the EU’s fishing catch, and we’re a
net contributor to the EU. The idea that the EU would want to go through
the bureaucratic nightmare of rejecting Scotland to simply let us back
in a couple of years later just didn’t stack up.”
The no campaign,
however, is quick to point out that Jean-Claude Juncker, the current
president of the European Commission, said
no new states would be admitted to the EU
for the next five years, shortly before he took office in July. He said
the EU would “mark a pause” in its growing membership to “consolidate”
with the current 28 member states.
If the yesses win, what happens next?
Scotland
wouldn’t be independent just yet. The Scottish government led by Alex
Salmond would enter negotiations with the UK government led by David
Cameron. They would have 18 months to negotiate issues such as who takes
what portion of the national debt, a possible currency union, and a
trade agreement. An independent Scotland would likely emerge sometime
around the end of 2016 or the beginning of 2017.
Would a no vote mean everything stays the same?
Probably
not. In May 2015, the UK holds a general election. Politicians are
campaigning now and many are making promises to encourage Scotland to
remain in the UK. Cameron and the leaders of the two other main
political parties, for example, have pledged that if there is a no vote,
Scotland will gain additional tax and legal powers.
“Better
Together is a union of three political parties,” Whitton said. “We
disagree on everything, but the one thing we agree on is to keep
Scotland part of the union. There will be further powers given to the
Scottish Parliament. Devolution is a process, not an event.”
The yes campaign, however, is not convinced that anything would change in Scotland’s favor.
“We
don’t know what’s going to happen if there is a “no” vote,” Miller
said. “Politics and economics are not static. If we vote no everything
won’t stay exactly as it is. There may be further austerity cuts. There
will be more economic decisions made in the interest of London. You can
say there might be consequences to a ‘yes’ vote, but it’s important to
remember that there are severe, guaranteed consequences with a no vote.”
“This
force for change, this passion to do something better, to create a
better society — that will exist regardless of whether there is a yes or
no vote.”
If it’s no this time, will Scotland vote on independence again?
Both campaigns agree there won’t be another vote for independence in the near future.
Better
Together points out that the power to have a vote at all was
transferred to Scotland from Westminster, and there is almost no chance
that whoever is in power in London would grant another vote.
The yes campaign says another vote is unlikely as well.
“This
force for change, this passion to do something better, to create a
better society — that will exist regardless of whether there is a yes or
no vote. If there is a no vote, then people will work to get the best
outcome for people and families in Scotland,” Miller said, but then
added, with bravado, “But that’s hypothetical because we’re going to win
anyways.”
Where can I go for updates?
Here’s a list of some organizations and reporters to follow on Twitter:
- Yes Scotland (@YesScotland), a campaign for an independent Scotland
- Better Together (@UK_Together), the all-party & non-party campaign for Scotland in the UK
- Guardian Scotland (@GdnScotland), The Guardian and Observer Scotland branch
- The Scotsman (@theScotsman), Scotland’s national paper
- Simon Johnson (@simon_telegraph), Scottish Political Editor for The Daily Telegraph
- Severin Carrell (@severincarrell), The Guardian’s Scotland Correspondent
How the press covered the day Scottish voters went to the polls to decide whether to stay part of the United Kingdom
David Cameron has been spared his worst fear: Being the Tory who lost England's hat. The Guardian has called
the independence referendum and it appears that voters have declined to
strike out on their own. Scotland will not leave the United Kingdom.
