THE pot is boiling....but will it boil over? From the Washington Post....
By Craig Whitlock, Ernesto Londono and Leila Fadel
Washington Post Foreign Service
Friday, February 11, 2011; 9:40 AM
CAIRO -
Egyptian state television reported that President Hosni Mubarak and his wife left their home in an affluent Cairo suburb Friday, as hundreds of thousands of citizens across the country gathered to demand his ouster.
The televised statement did not say where Mubarak was headed, but the Associated Press, citing a local official, reported that he was going to the Egyptian resort of Sharm el-Sheik.
The apparent departure came hours after Egypt's military chiefs pledged to back the Mubarak's decision to remain in office, but cede some powers to his hand-picked vice president, Omar Suleiman. The supreme military council said it would guarantee "free and honest" elections after Mubarak's term expires, and a lifting of Egypt's 30-year-old state of emergency once calm returned to the streets. The military encouraged protesters to go home, citing the need to "return to normal life."
Instead, throngs of people gathered cities across the country, and anger and frustration mounted as word spread of the military's stance. "Mubarak must go! He is finished!" protesters in Cairo's Tahrir Square shouted as a sea of people waved red-white-and-black Egyptian flags.
The armed forces did not move against the demonstrators.
At the state Television and Radio Tower, which is north of the square and flanks the east bank of the Nile, thousands of protesters toppled makeshift barricades erected by the military and swarmed around the building.
Soldiers stood by and watched. For the moment, protesters did not force entry into the building, instead chanting: "this is the people's army, not Mubarak's army." The television channel, a reliable producer of propaganda for Mubarak, continued to broadcast.
On the Mediterranean coast, massive crowds packed public squares in Alexandria, Egypt's second-largest city, jeering Mubarak and insisting that he resign. Protests also erupted in Suez, where crowds surrounded 10 government buildings, according to the Egyptian news Web site al-Ahram Online. Large demonstrations were also reported in the cities of Tanta, Mahalla and Assuit.
In the affluent Cairo suburb of Heliopolis, a smaller demonstration was underway at Mubarak's presidential palace. There, 26-year-old Taha Nahas predicted that the military's statement would backfire and that Egyptians who had seen the armed forces as an honest protector of their interests would change their minds. "This is what we've heard before from Mubarak and Omar Suleiman," Nahas said. "We have lost our trust in the military. It's a corrupt organization."
A group of counter-demonstrators congregated nearby, chanting support for the president and urging the other side to disperse. Soldiers kept the two sides separated. "We are afraid. If there is anarchy, looters will come to our homes," said Serge Simon, 60, an Armenian-Egyptian pianist from Heliopolis. "What we are seeing here is hooliganism."
In Tahrir Square, scores of thousands prostrated themselves to the muezzin's prayer call at midday, many of them weeping. Organizers of Egypt's popular rebellion predicted the biggest turnout so far in their 18-day revolt.
Parts of the square grew so packed that it was difficult to walk around. Soldiers in riot gear manned entrances to the square, but did not stop those who were streaming in. Dozens of ambulances were parked on nearby side streets.
Protesters said that three soldiers turned in their weapons and joined the protests an hour before Friday prayers. Many chants focused on the need for a civilian, rather than a military, government.
"The military is now in an embarrassing situation," said Tamer Oweiss, 31,, a superviser at Cairo's airport. "They're trying to stand in the middle. They feel loyalty to Mubarak, an officer, but at the same time, they dont want to hurt the people."
The plaza, next to the Nile River, has served as the heartbeat of the rebellion.
In a rambling televised speech late Thursday, Mubarak ceded some authority to Suleiman but refused to quit, insisting that he would stay in office to oversee a drawn-out transfer of power. His defiance stunned and angered hundreds of thousands of protesters in the capital, who responded with chants of "revolution, revolution."
Enormous crowds, which had gathered in anticipation that Mubarak would announce his resignation, expressed disappointment and fury as the message sunk in that the president had no intention of leaving.
"Oh Mubarak, be patient! The people will dig your grave," protesters shouted. As dawn broke Friday, the Muslim holy day and the start of the weekend here, more and more people came to the square.
Around 200 people had gathered at the presidential palace, al-Ouruba, by midday, outside a wall of barbed wire and two tanks. The mood was calm as soldiers directed traffic.
Said Younis, a 26-year-old advertising executive, said he marched 10 miles from Tahrir Square to the presidential palace immediately after Mubarak's speech, arriving about 2 a.m. "He ridiculed us," Younis said. "We want him to hear our voices from up close."
Mubarak "is an idiot," said Ahmed Suleiman, 62, a physician. "We're very upset about what he said yesterday.
Some protesters vowed to storm the palace. But others appealed for restraint, saying they would not clash with the military.
"The people and the army are continuing their march together!" they chanted.
Younis said military officers stationed at the palace offered their sympathy and support, providing tea and juice to the handful of protesters who pulled an all-night vigil. "They told us, 'Don't worry, we will never fire on you,' " he said.
Outside the palace gate, some protesters appealed to soldiers across the barbed wire to join their cause.
"I'm with you!" one officer shouted back.
"Then come to this side!" one woman demanded.
Mubarak's rejection of the rebellion capped a confusing day of contradictory messages, exultant expectations and, ultimately, flattened hopes. It left Egyptians and the rest of the world anxious and afraid of how the conflict would unfold in the hours and days ahead.
"This stalemate cannot continue forever," Finance Minister Samir Radwan told BBC radio. "I think the military is highly disciplined and they have taken a decision not to fire at the young people."
Some opposition leaders warned that Mubarak was risking a bloody revolt.
"There is no way the Egyptian people right now are ready to accept either the president or the vice president," Mohamed ElBaradei, a Nobel Peace Prize winner and opposition leader, told CNN. "They have lost all authority, all legitimacy. . . . My fear is that the situation will turn violent."
The developments not only shocked Egyptians but seemed to catch the world by surprise, including the highest levels of the U.S. government. In a written statement, President Obama said "it is not yet clear'' whether the transition to democracy pledged by Mubarak would be "immediate, meaningful or sufficient.''
Earlier Thursday, CIA Director Leon Panetta told Congress that "there is a strong likelihood that Mubarak may step down this evening." In an afternoon speech to university students in Michigan, Obama gave no indication that he expected otherwise, calling the events in Egypt "a moment of transformation that's taking place because the people of Egypt are calling for change."
After 17 days of swelling protests and labor unrest, demonstrators in Cairo thought they were on the cusp of forcing Mubarak from power Thursday afternoon when Egypt's military chiefs pledged in unequivocal-sounding language that they backed the protesters' goals.
Crowds had thundered their approval when Gen. Hassan al-Roueini, military commander for the Cairo region, strode into the square and declared: "All your demands will be met today."
Anticipation soared even higher when Egypt's supreme military council announced that it had convened an emergency session - in its commander in chief's absence. In a statement, the military chiefs pledged "support for the legitimate demands of the people" and promised "to oversee their interests and security."
About five hours later, at 10:45 p.m., Mubarak addressed the nation on television from his palace. Standing next to an Egyptian flag, he tried to assure the public that he had heard their grievances.
He promised to investigate the deaths of an estimated 300 people during the demonstrations, which began Jan. 25. But he took no responsibility for the actions of his police and security forces, which have been widely accused of instigating the violence.
"I speak to the youth of Egypt in Tahrir Square and all around Egypt. I speak to you as a father speaks to his children," he said. "I say to you before anything else that the blood of your martyrs will not be in vain and that I will hold perpetrators to account."
"I say to you that my response to your message and your demands is a commitment that I will not go back on," he said. "I believe that the majority of Egyptians know who is Hosni Mubarak, and it hurts me how some Egyptians talk about me."
But as he continued for 15 minutes, he never uttered the lines that many assumed were coming, instead insisting that he would remain in office until the end of his term in September so he could oversee what he called a transition to "free and transparent" elections.
"This is the pledge that I've made before God and the nation, and I swear that I will honor this pledge," he said. "I have lived for the sake of this nation. I will not leave it nor depart it until I am buried in the ground."
Mubarak said he was transferring power to his vice president, Omar Suleiman, Egypt's longtime intelligence chief. He also said he had ordered several constitutional amendments. One would expand the field of candidates eligible to run to succeed him in September, and another would provide for judicial monitoring of elections.
Afterward, Sameh Shoukry, Egypt's ambassador to the United States, asserted that Mubarak had transferred all authority to Suleiman, making the latter the de facto president. "For undertaking all decisions and responsibilities under the constitution, it is Omar Suleiman," the ambassador told CNN.
But there were few signs that Mubarak was about to recede into the background, and few Egyptians believed that he had entirely relinquished his control of the state.
Shortly after Mubarak finished speaking, Suleiman followed with a televised address in which he defended his boss and tried to soothe widespread concerns that Egypt's revolutionary struggle could turn ugly.
"The president puts the supreme interests of the country above everything else. He has empowered me to preserve its achievements and restore stability and happiness," Suleiman said. "We have opened the door to dialogue, and the door is still open to dialogue."
Earlier in the week, Suleiman had made public statements in which he warned protesters that they faced a choice between a "coup" and a "dialogue" and implied that a military crackdown was possible. On Thursday night, he once again urged demonstrators to back off, saying it was for the good of the country.
"Youth of Egypt, go back home. Go back to work. The nation needs your efforts to create and build a bright future," Suleiman said. "Do not listen to television and radio reports and foreign influences whose aim is just to cause chaos and tarnish Egypt's image."
The allusion to outside intervention echoed a warning from Mubarak, whose advisers have expressed anger with the United States, Egypt's longtime ally, for sternly urging the Cairo regime to repeal its state-of-emergency law and to embrace democratic reforms.
"We will prove that we are not followers or puppets of anybody, nor we are receiving orders or dictations from anybody," Mubarak said. "No one is making the decision for us."
The audio of Mubarak's speech was broadcast on loudspeakers mounted in Tahrir Square. His remarks were repeatedly interrupted by the crowd, which shouted, "Go away, go away," even as most people strained to listen so they could comprehend the president's message.
As Mubarak concluded, the response was instantaneous and ear-splitting. "The people want to put the president on trial," the crowd roared. There seemed to be little doubt that the speech had set the stage for decisive and possibly violent confrontation.
"He was provoking us," said Osama Hassan, a 35-year-old Cairo resident. "What he's doing is putting us in conflict with the military. This here is a camp of revolution. And he will need the military to get us out."
After the speech, the European Union signaled a tougher line on Mubarak's handling of the unrest.
"The demands and expectations of the Egyptian people must be met," said Catherine Ashton, the E.U. high representative for foreign affairs and security policy. She added: "The time for change is now."
Special correspondent Samuel Sockol and staff writer Linda Davidson in Cairo and staff writer William Branigin in Washington contributed to this report.
BUCKNACKT'S SORDID TAWDRY BLOG We should not be a journey to the grave with the intention of arriving safely in an attractive & well preserved body, but rather to skid in sideways, chocolate, bier or wein in hand, body thoroughly used up, totally worn out and screaming "WHOO-HOO, WHAT A RIDE!!!!!!"
Showing posts with label Egyptian intelligence. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Egyptian intelligence. Show all posts
11 February 2011
10 February 2011
Who Is Omar Suleiman? & What's Happening in Egypt Explained (UPDATED) 10FEB11
THURSDAY'S What's Happening In Egypt blog entries from Nick Baumann and Mother Jones.....and click the link to read the article on the torturer omar suleiman...
UPDATE 163, Thursday, Feb. 10, 11:20 a.m. EST/6:20 p.m. Cairo: It turns out, via Sultan al Qassemi, that the BBC was talking to Hossam Badrawi, the Secretary General of Egypt's ruling party, the NDP, not to Prime Minister Ahmed Shafik. He told the BBC that "I don't know" where Mubarak is right now. For what it's worth, Egypt's information minister says it's all just a rumor and Mubarak will not step down. NBC, meanwhile, says it has two sources, including the military, and confirmation that Mubarak will speak tonight.
UPDATE 164, Thursday, Feb. 10, 12:15 p.m. EST/7:15 p.m. Cairo: VP Omar Suleiman, of lack-of-squeamishness-about-torture fame, is meeting with Mubarak now, state television channel Nile TV claims. And the BBC reports that opposition leaders believe Mubarak's message to the country has been pre-recorded to give the ruler time to flee in advance of the speech.
UPDATE 165, Thursday, Feb. 10, 12:30 p.m. EST/7:30 p.m. Cairo: Mubarak is reportedly scheduled to speak around 2:30 p.m. EST/9:30 p.m. Cairo today. Also, check out this WikiLeaks cable. It recounts a meeting Richard Posner, a top State Department official, had with Egyptian human rights activists in January 2010. Key quote: Egyptian Initiative for Personal Rights Executive Director Hossam Bahgat... "asserted that many Egyptians believe the [government of Egypt] has interpreted the current administration's relative 'silence' on human rights and political issues as a signal of support." You can bet that supporting famed torturer Omar Suleiman to succeed Mubarak won't do much to dispel that perception.
UPDATE 166, Thursday, Feb. 10, 1:15 p.m. EST/8:15 p.m. Cairo: Fox News is reporting Mubarak will step down and hand power to a "military council." Foreign Policy's Blake Hounshell quotes opposition leader Mohamed ElBaradei: "There is no credibility in either Mubarak or Suleiman or anybody who is associated with that regime."
UPDATE 167, Thursday, Feb. 10, 2:08 p.m. EST/9:08 p.m. Cairo (Siddhartha Mahanta): President Obama just spoke about the events in Egypt, and directed his message at the Egyptian youth. "We're watching history," he said, adding that the Egyptian people are looking for "irreversible change" and that the US will support an orderly transition to democracy.
UPDATE 168, Thursday, Feb. 10, 3:41 p.m. EST/10:41 p.m. Cairo (Siddhartha Mahanta): Via Al Jazeera: Reuters is reporting that sources in the Middle East say that Mubarak will not announce his resignation and will, instead, lift emergency law. Smart money says that's not going to do it for the protestors.
UPDATE 169, Thursday, Feb. 10, 4:17 p.m. EST/11:17 p.m. Cairo (Siddhartha Mahanta): Mubarak didn’t make history with his speech. And he isn’t going anywhere. Addressing the nation's youth just now, he promised not to "relent to penalize" those responsible for the violence that racked Tahrir square. "My heart went out and I felt the pain as you did. I tell you, that my response to your voice and message and your demands is a commitment that cannot be waived," he said. Continuing to affirm his lifelong commitment to defending his country, he made clear he "remains adamant to shoulder" his presidential responsibilty and stay in office till September's elections. He did promise to amend the constitution, in an indication that some reforms might be on the way that scrap the 30-year state of emergency. But he also railed on foreign interlocuters and their attempt to shape events in Egypt. The mood in Tahrir Square took an immediate turn for the worse, with furious protestors hurling their shoes during the address.
UPDATE 170, Thursday, Feb. 10, 5:45 p.m. EST/11:45 p.m. Cairo: Foreign Policy's Marc Lynch has a great take on what he calls "the worst speech ever." "It's hard to exaggerate how bad Hosni Mubarak's speech today was for Egypt." Lynch says Mubarak's address and VP Omar Suleiman's followup means "Things could get ugly tonight—and if things don't explode now, then the crowds tomorrow will be absolutely massive. Whatever happens, for better or for worse, the prospects of an orderly, negotiated transition led by Omar Suleiman have just plummeted sharply." Speaking of Omar Suleiman, we've just published an explainer about who Omar Suleiman is. Read it: Who is Omar Suleiman?
Omar Suleiman, the recently appointed Vice President of Egypt, may soon become the most powerful man in that country. Hosni Mubarak, who has ruled Egypt for 30 years, appeared set to step down on Thursday night. (He didn't, but he still could.) Weeks of protests, riots, and violence have shaken the Mubarak regime's grip on power. There's no guarantee that the end of Mubarak's reign would mean democracy or even civilian rule for the largest Arab country. Opposition leader (and Nobel laureate) Mohamed ElBaradei has said, "there is no credibility in either Mubarak or Suleiman or anybody who is associated with that regime." But soon, Suleiman could be running the show, no matter what ElBaradei thinks. So who is this guy?
He's a spy: Prior to becoming Mubarak's official No. 2, Suleiman, was for nearly two decades, the head of Egypt's intelligence service, the famed (and feared) Egyptian General Intelligence Directorate (EGID).
He's a torturer: As the New Yorker's Jane Mayer noted in her book The Dark Side (read it!), Suleiman managed the Egyptian end of Clinton- and Bush-era "extraordinary renditions," in which people whom the US suspected of torture were flown to Egypt ("rendered") and tortured. (Stephen Grey's Ghost Plane and Ron Suskind's The One Percent Doctrine also feature material on Suleiman's role in torture.) As noted in Mother Jones' Egypt explainer, Mayer quoted Edward Walker, the former US ambassador to Egypt, who described Suleiman as "not squeamish." MoJo's Jim Ridgeway has more on Suleiman's role in torture.
UPDATE 160, Thursday, Feb. 10, 10:30 a.m. EST (Siddhartha Mahanta): It's day 17 of the anti-Mubarak full court press.
- Egyptian labor unions continue their nationwide strikes. Al Jazeera reports that thousands of doctors, lawyers, artists, and public transport workers marched through central Cairo and into Tahrir Square today. But its reporters also note that the marches "are more of an economic nature," and don’t necessarily suggest that the unions have merged their demonstrations with that of the political protestors. Meanwhlie, the Ministry of Interior has launched an investigation into the senior officer gave orders fire on protesters back on January 28.
- Josh Rogin has the latest scoop from the homefront on the conflicting messages the White House and State Department have been sending. The key point of contention: the role of Vice President Omar Suleiman in the reform process. Foggy Bottom and the White House have agreed on three core principles: non-violence, respect for universal rights, and the need for political change. But "[t]he State Department is advocating a hosted dinner, where the power still resides with the incumbents," the New America Foundation's Steve Clemons told Rogin. "That's not good enough for the White House."
- Via Democarcy Now, listen to the The Independent's veteran Middle East correspondent, Robert Fisk, on how Washington has failed the protestors. "When the democrats came onto the streets of Cairo and wanted what Obama had advertised to them, it was Obama who clenched his fist and Hillary Clinton who said that it’s a stable regime. Only now, when they realize that perhaps Mubarak is going to go, mainly because the army want to get rid of him," he says.
- And The Washington Post's Glenn Kessler does an exhaustive fact check on Obama administration's statements on Egypt.
UPDATE 161, Thursday, Feb. 10, 11:00 a.m. EST/6:00 p.m. Cairo: Egypt's prime minister, Ahmed Shafiq, has told the BBC that Mubarak may step down. "This could be the day that changes everything," according to Al Jazeera. There was a meeting of Egypt's Higher Army Council today and Mubarak did not attend.
UPDATE 162, Thursday, Feb. 10, 11:05 a.m. EST/6:05 p.m Cairo: Things are moving quickly. Al Jazeera says CIA chief Leon Panetta has said there is a "strong indication" Mubarak will step down tonight. NBC News is running with the story, saying that Mubarak will definitely step down. UPDATE: A CIA spokesman now tells Politico: "Panetta was relaying news reports that emerged just as hearing began not speaking about independent CIA information."UPDATE 163, Thursday, Feb. 10, 11:20 a.m. EST/6:20 p.m. Cairo: It turns out, via Sultan al Qassemi, that the BBC was talking to Hossam Badrawi, the Secretary General of Egypt's ruling party, the NDP, not to Prime Minister Ahmed Shafik. He told the BBC that "I don't know" where Mubarak is right now. For what it's worth, Egypt's information minister says it's all just a rumor and Mubarak will not step down. NBC, meanwhile, says it has two sources, including the military, and confirmation that Mubarak will speak tonight.
UPDATE 164, Thursday, Feb. 10, 12:15 p.m. EST/7:15 p.m. Cairo: VP Omar Suleiman, of lack-of-squeamishness-about-torture fame, is meeting with Mubarak now, state television channel Nile TV claims. And the BBC reports that opposition leaders believe Mubarak's message to the country has been pre-recorded to give the ruler time to flee in advance of the speech.
UPDATE 165, Thursday, Feb. 10, 12:30 p.m. EST/7:30 p.m. Cairo: Mubarak is reportedly scheduled to speak around 2:30 p.m. EST/9:30 p.m. Cairo today. Also, check out this WikiLeaks cable. It recounts a meeting Richard Posner, a top State Department official, had with Egyptian human rights activists in January 2010. Key quote: Egyptian Initiative for Personal Rights Executive Director Hossam Bahgat... "asserted that many Egyptians believe the [government of Egypt] has interpreted the current administration's relative 'silence' on human rights and political issues as a signal of support." You can bet that supporting famed torturer Omar Suleiman to succeed Mubarak won't do much to dispel that perception.
UPDATE 166, Thursday, Feb. 10, 1:15 p.m. EST/8:15 p.m. Cairo: Fox News is reporting Mubarak will step down and hand power to a "military council." Foreign Policy's Blake Hounshell quotes opposition leader Mohamed ElBaradei: "There is no credibility in either Mubarak or Suleiman or anybody who is associated with that regime."
UPDATE 167, Thursday, Feb. 10, 2:08 p.m. EST/9:08 p.m. Cairo (Siddhartha Mahanta): President Obama just spoke about the events in Egypt, and directed his message at the Egyptian youth. "We're watching history," he said, adding that the Egyptian people are looking for "irreversible change" and that the US will support an orderly transition to democracy.
UPDATE 168, Thursday, Feb. 10, 3:41 p.m. EST/10:41 p.m. Cairo (Siddhartha Mahanta): Via Al Jazeera: Reuters is reporting that sources in the Middle East say that Mubarak will not announce his resignation and will, instead, lift emergency law. Smart money says that's not going to do it for the protestors.
UPDATE 169, Thursday, Feb. 10, 4:17 p.m. EST/11:17 p.m. Cairo (Siddhartha Mahanta): Mubarak didn’t make history with his speech. And he isn’t going anywhere. Addressing the nation's youth just now, he promised not to "relent to penalize" those responsible for the violence that racked Tahrir square. "My heart went out and I felt the pain as you did. I tell you, that my response to your voice and message and your demands is a commitment that cannot be waived," he said. Continuing to affirm his lifelong commitment to defending his country, he made clear he "remains adamant to shoulder" his presidential responsibilty and stay in office till September's elections. He did promise to amend the constitution, in an indication that some reforms might be on the way that scrap the 30-year state of emergency. But he also railed on foreign interlocuters and their attempt to shape events in Egypt. The mood in Tahrir Square took an immediate turn for the worse, with furious protestors hurling their shoes during the address.
UPDATE 170, Thursday, Feb. 10, 5:45 p.m. EST/11:45 p.m. Cairo: Foreign Policy's Marc Lynch has a great take on what he calls "the worst speech ever." "It's hard to exaggerate how bad Hosni Mubarak's speech today was for Egypt." Lynch says Mubarak's address and VP Omar Suleiman's followup means "Things could get ugly tonight—and if things don't explode now, then the crowds tomorrow will be absolutely massive. Whatever happens, for better or for worse, the prospects of an orderly, negotiated transition led by Omar Suleiman have just plummeted sharply." Speaking of Omar Suleiman, we've just published an explainer about who Omar Suleiman is. Read it: Who is Omar Suleiman?
Who Is Omar Suleiman?
| Thu Feb. 10, 2011 2:35 PM PST
He's a spy: Prior to becoming Mubarak's official No. 2, Suleiman, was for nearly two decades, the head of Egypt's intelligence service, the famed (and feared) Egyptian General Intelligence Directorate (EGID).
He's a torturer: As the New Yorker's Jane Mayer noted in her book The Dark Side (read it!), Suleiman managed the Egyptian end of Clinton- and Bush-era "extraordinary renditions," in which people whom the US suspected of torture were flown to Egypt ("rendered") and tortured. (Stephen Grey's Ghost Plane and Ron Suskind's The One Percent Doctrine also feature material on Suleiman's role in torture.) As noted in Mother Jones' Egypt explainer, Mayer quoted Edward Walker, the former US ambassador to Egypt, who described Suleiman as "not squeamish." MoJo's Jim Ridgeway has more on Suleiman's role in torture.
He's a close ally of the US: Because of his work on rendition and other intelligence-related cooperation, Suleiman may have an even better relationship with American officials than Mubarak did. "Suave, sophisticated, and fluent in English, he has served for years as the main conduit between the United States and Mubarak," Mayer wrote last month. A 2006 State Department cable released by WikiLeaks notes, "our intelligence collaboration with Omar Soliman... is now probably the most successful element of the relationship" between the US and the government of Egypt.
This makes any succession that puts Suleiman in power a win for the intelligence community.
He was trained by communists: Paging Glenn Beck! Suleiman received his initial military training in Egypt, but he finished up at Moscow's Frunze Military Academy—in what was then the Soviet Union.
He's fought Arabs and Israelis: The 73-year-old Suleiman is a veteran of Egypt's 1967 and 1973 (Yom Kippur) wars with Israel and the 1962 civil war in Yemen.
He's the Muslim Brotherhood's worst nightmare: Suleiman's intelligence forces don't just interrogate people who are rendered to them by the US. They also go after internal dissidents—especially Islamists. Reuters says he was "the mastermind behind the fragmentation of Islamist groups who led the uprising against the state in the 1990s."
He helped get the phony "intelligence" that led to the Iraq war: One of the renditions Suleiman reportedly handled was that of Ibn Shaikh al-Libi. I wrote about the case after reports emerged of al-Libi's mysterious death, which was ruled a suicide, in a Libyan jail in May 2009:
He may have been connected to the death of torture subject Ibn Shaikh al-Libi, one expert believes: Terrorism consultant Evan Kohlmann has said that "Al-Libi’s death coincided with the first visit by Egypt’s spymaster Omar Suleiman to Tripoli." Al Jazeera's Lisa Hajjar explains:
Learn More: Jane Mayer | Bill Moyers Journal | ABC News | Al Jazeera | Mother Jones: Al Libi's Suicide | Mother Jones: Al Libi and the Case for War
This makes any succession that puts Suleiman in power a win for the intelligence community.
He was trained by communists: Paging Glenn Beck! Suleiman received his initial military training in Egypt, but he finished up at Moscow's Frunze Military Academy—in what was then the Soviet Union.
He's fought Arabs and Israelis: The 73-year-old Suleiman is a veteran of Egypt's 1967 and 1973 (Yom Kippur) wars with Israel and the 1962 civil war in Yemen.
He's the Muslim Brotherhood's worst nightmare: Suleiman's intelligence forces don't just interrogate people who are rendered to them by the US. They also go after internal dissidents—especially Islamists. Reuters says he was "the mastermind behind the fragmentation of Islamist groups who led the uprising against the state in the 1990s."
He helped get the phony "intelligence" that led to the Iraq war: One of the renditions Suleiman reportedly handled was that of Ibn Shaikh al-Libi. I wrote about the case after reports emerged of al-Libi's mysterious death, which was ruled a suicide, in a Libyan jail in May 2009:
Al-Libi was the man whose false confession, obtained under torture, of a link between Saddam Hussein and Al Qaeda provided the Bush administration with its casus belli for war with Iraq. It didn't seem to matter that al-Libi's claim that Bin Laden had sent operatives to be trained in the use of weapons of mass destruction by Hussein's people didn't make any sense. "They were killing me," al-Libi later told the FBI about his torturers. "I had to tell them something." [Michael Isikoff and Mother Jones' own David Corn were the first to report on these comments, which they revealed in their 2007 book Hubris.] A bipartisan Senate Intelligence committee report would later conclude that al-Libi lied about the link "to avoid torture."Secretary of State Colin Powell cited al-Libi's confession when he argued the case for the Iraq war to the United Nations in February 2003.
He may have been connected to the death of torture subject Ibn Shaikh al-Libi, one expert believes: Terrorism consultant Evan Kohlmann has said that "Al-Libi’s death coincided with the first visit by Egypt’s spymaster Omar Suleiman to Tripoli." Al Jazeera's Lisa Hajjar explains:
Kohlmann surmises and opines that, after al-Libi recounted his story about about an al-Qaeda–Saddam-WMD connection, "The Egyptians were embarassed by this admission—and the Bush government found itself in hot water internationally. Then, in May 2009, Omar Suleiman saw an opportunity to get even with al-Libi and travelled to Tripoli. By the time Omar Suleiman's plane left Tripoli, Ibn al-Sheikh al-Libi had committed 'suicide'."
Learn More: Jane Mayer | Bill Moyers Journal | ABC News | Al Jazeera | Mother Jones: Al Libi's Suicide | Mother Jones: Al Libi and the Case for War
05 February 2011
Egypt Unrest: Didn't U.S. Intelligence See It Coming? 5FEB11
Billions of dollars for what????
U.S. intelligence officials are trying to assess what the protests in Egypt will mean for the partnership between the two countries.
The United States and Egypt work closely on a range of intelligence issues — especially terrorism.
Before it can look ahead, though, the spy community is being asked some hard questions about whether it missed the signals that Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak's regime was in jeopardy.
Secrets And Mysteries
There's a sense in Washington that the Egyptian uprising just came out of nowhere.
"It has taken not just us but many people by surprise," Adm. Mike Mullen, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said on The Daily Show.
Some senators on Capitol Hill have started looking around for someone to blame. During an intelligence committee hearing this week, California Democrat Dianne Feinstein questioned whether the U.S. intelligence community should have been able to predict the Egyptian revolt.
The witness at the hearing was Stephanie O'Sullivan, who has been tapped to be the country's No. 2 intelligence officer.
At one point, Sen. Ron Wyden of Oregon asked her a direction question: "When did the intelligence community first alert the president and policymakers that protesters were likely to threaten President Mubarak's hold on power?"
"We have warned of instability," O'Sullivan answered. "We didn't know what the triggering mechanism would be."
Predicting the "triggering mechanism" is often the problem, says Gen. Michael Hayden, former head of the CIA. Hayden says political volatility in Egypt has been tracked for years. But there are limits to what spies can know.
To explain this, he borrows from what a CIA colleague, John McLaughlin, likes to say: There's a difference between secrets and mysteries.
"He said you can't hold intelligence services accountable in the same way for mysteries," Hayden says. "The broad movement of Egyptian society isn't a secret that was hidden in somebody's safe that somebody should have expected us to purloin. This is far more difficult to understand."
Cooperation In The Future?
What's also difficult to understand at this point is how the Egyptian uprising will affect the way U.S. and Egyptian spy agencies will continue to work together.
Omar Suleiman, Egypt's former intelligence chief and now its vice president, has been one of America's closest partners.
"We have a saying at the agency when we have a very good friend: 'We have a lot of time for him.' We always had a lot of time for Director Suleiman," Hayden says.
The relationship between the two spy agencies has been close. But it hasn't been without controversy. For example, there's the CIA program known as extraordinary rendition, in which suspects with links to al-Qaida were apprehended and flown to third-party countries, like Egypt.
Tom Malinowski of Human Rights Watch has studied extraordinary rendition. "Obviously, the Americans knew what was going to happen to people who were rendered to Egypt," he says. "Why send someone to Egypt if not for the purpose of having them interrogated in the Egyptian manner?"
U.S. officials have denied sending any detainees to countries where they may have been tortured.
Former U.S. intelligence officials say the Mubarak regime has been a key ally on Iran, Israel and the Palestinians, and Hezbollah in Lebanon.
Hayden says Egypt and the U.S. will always find ways to cooperate on intelligence matters when it's in their interests. But, he says, "to the degree the new government adopts policies that might be different than the policies of the Mubarak government, that could make the intelligence relationship less productive for both nations."
And as for who leads Egypt next? That may be another one of those mysteries the CIA can't solve.
The United States and Egypt work closely on a range of intelligence issues — especially terrorism.
Before it can look ahead, though, the spy community is being asked some hard questions about whether it missed the signals that Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak's regime was in jeopardy.
Secrets And Mysteries
There's a sense in Washington that the Egyptian uprising just came out of nowhere.
"It has taken not just us but many people by surprise," Adm. Mike Mullen, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said on The Daily Show.
Some senators on Capitol Hill have started looking around for someone to blame. During an intelligence committee hearing this week, California Democrat Dianne Feinstein questioned whether the U.S. intelligence community should have been able to predict the Egyptian revolt.
The broad movement of Egyptian society isn't a secret that was hidden in somebody's safe that somebody should have expected us to purloin. This is far more difficult to understand.
At one point, Sen. Ron Wyden of Oregon asked her a direction question: "When did the intelligence community first alert the president and policymakers that protesters were likely to threaten President Mubarak's hold on power?"
"We have warned of instability," O'Sullivan answered. "We didn't know what the triggering mechanism would be."
Predicting the "triggering mechanism" is often the problem, says Gen. Michael Hayden, former head of the CIA. Hayden says political volatility in Egypt has been tracked for years. But there are limits to what spies can know.
To explain this, he borrows from what a CIA colleague, John McLaughlin, likes to say: There's a difference between secrets and mysteries.
"He said you can't hold intelligence services accountable in the same way for mysteries," Hayden says. "The broad movement of Egyptian society isn't a secret that was hidden in somebody's safe that somebody should have expected us to purloin. This is far more difficult to understand."
Cooperation In The Future?
What's also difficult to understand at this point is how the Egyptian uprising will affect the way U.S. and Egyptian spy agencies will continue to work together.
Omar Suleiman, Egypt's former intelligence chief and now its vice president, has been one of America's closest partners.
"We have a saying at the agency when we have a very good friend: 'We have a lot of time for him.' We always had a lot of time for Director Suleiman," Hayden says.
The relationship between the two spy agencies has been close. But it hasn't been without controversy. For example, there's the CIA program known as extraordinary rendition, in which suspects with links to al-Qaida were apprehended and flown to third-party countries, like Egypt.
Tom Malinowski of Human Rights Watch has studied extraordinary rendition. "Obviously, the Americans knew what was going to happen to people who were rendered to Egypt," he says. "Why send someone to Egypt if not for the purpose of having them interrogated in the Egyptian manner?"
U.S. officials have denied sending any detainees to countries where they may have been tortured.
Former U.S. intelligence officials say the Mubarak regime has been a key ally on Iran, Israel and the Palestinians, and Hezbollah in Lebanon.
Hayden says Egypt and the U.S. will always find ways to cooperate on intelligence matters when it's in their interests. But, he says, "to the degree the new government adopts policies that might be different than the policies of the Mubarak government, that could make the intelligence relationship less productive for both nations."
And as for who leads Egypt next? That may be another one of those mysteries the CIA can't solve.
More From This Series
Anti-Government Protests Roil Egypt
Egypt Unrest: Didn't U.S. Intelligence See It Coming?
The spy community faces questions about whether it missed signals that Mubarak's regime was at risk.Anti-Government Protests Roil Egypt
Should Investors Be More Worried About Egypt?
So far, there's little sign that the upheaval in Egypt is producing jitters in the world economy.Planet Money
Why Egypt's Military Cares About Home Appliances
The military owns "virtually every industry" in Egypt.
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