Hurricane Laura Comes Ashore Threatening 'Unsurvivable' Storm Surge

PRAYERS for the people of the Gulf coast experiencing the fury of hurricane Laura, hoping they evacuated to safe areas. It is easy to say property and possessions can be replaced, lives can not, but it is true though we can all contribute what we can to help these people recover. From NPR

The National Hurricane Center is warning of extreme winds and "catastrophic" storm surges from Hurricane Laura, which is expected to make landfall along the Texas-Louisiana border on Wednesday night.

National Hurricane Center

Updated at 1:30 a.m. ET Thursday

Hurricane Laura made landfall at 1 a.m. ET Thursday, with extreme winds and an expected catastrophic" storm surge in parts of Texas and Louisiana, according to the National Hurricane Center.

The center said Laura is an "extremely dangerous" Category 4 hurricane, now with maximum sustained winds of 150 mph — just 7 mph short of Category 5 classification. That would make Laura the fourth Category 4 storm to strike Louisiana in modern history.

Most forecasts initially predicted Laura's intensity would reach a Category 2 or 3 storm. But the hurricane ramped up quickly since the start of the week, intensifying by 65 miles per hour in one 24-hour period.

Laura is the tenth hurricane to make landfall in the continental U.S. with winds of 150 miles per hour or higher since modern record keeping began in 1851. Most recently, Hurricane Michael in 2018 had an intensity of 160 miles per hour when it made landfall in Florida.

While most storms tend to weaken before landfall, three storms in recent years have continued to strengthen as they approach the shore: Harvey in Texas in 2017, Michael, and now Laura.

The storm is forecast to move inland overnight Wednesday and farther into northwestern Louisiana on Thursday. From there, it will head across Arkansas and over the mid-Mississippi Valley on Friday.

The National Hurricane Center said storm surge — the rise in seawater caused by a storm — and tropical storm-force winds will arrive well in advance of the storm's center, and that "all preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion in the next few hours."

It is also warning of an "unsurvivable" storm surge with massive waves that will cause significant damage from Sea Rim State Park in Texas to Intracoastal City, La. The surge could affect areas up to 40 miles inland and dump floodwaters to the area that may not recede for days.

Sporadic tornadoes are also expected on Wednesday night over Louisiana, far southeast Texas and southwestern Mississippi.

As of early Wednesday evening, water levels are rising from Galveston Bay, Texas to Mobile Bay, Ala.

In an video update on Wednesday evening, National Hurricane Center Director Ken Graham said the storm is bringing "all facets of the dangers" — from storm surge to flooding rains to strong winds to tornadoes — to the coast and significantly far inland.

"I can't stress it enough," he said. "If you've been told to leave, you just got to."

Flash flooding and tropical storm-force winds are anticipated to continue through Thursday night into East Texas and parts of Arkansas, Graham said in a video update posted Wednesday afternoon on Facebook.

At that time, radar showed a band of rain covering the coast from southeastern Louisiana to Galveston, Texas, Graham said.

Graham said earlier Wednesday that things are "changing rapidly here, but what's not changing is the fact that this is going to be a catastrophic life-threatening event."

Between Wednesday evening and Friday, the storm is expected to unleash 8 to 12 inches of rainfall along the northwestern Gulf Coast, 5 to 10 inches in western Louisiana and 3 to 7 inches in much of Arkansas.

Laura is expected to weaken rapidly after it makes landfall Wednesday night into Thursday morning, but the projected storm surge could still cause the most life-threatening damage, the hurricane center said.

If the peak surge occurs during high tide, the water along Johnson Bayou to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge on the Louisiana coast could rise between 15 and 20 feet. Other nearby areas could see storm surge as high as 15 feet.

"Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances," the hurricane center said.

Those levels of storm surge are "not survivable," Graham said.

"It's water in places that wouldn't normally have water," he said, "so it's water up your pant leg beyond even up to the top of your house and over your house."

Earlier this week, some residents in Laura's path faced Tropical Storm Marco, which dumped a lot of rain but weakened considerably as it approached the coast. Laura is expected to be much more powerful than that storm. Warm waters in the Gulf are aiding Laura's rapid growth.

Officials in Texas and Louisiana urged people under mandatory evacuation orders to move quickly on Wednesday afternoon, as rising waters had already flooded roads in some low-lying areas.

Texas Public Radio reported that at least 2,100 people had arrived at San Antonio's evacuation site as of 5 p.m. local time.

Water began rising along beaches and roads in parts of southern Louisiana and Texas as winds across the region picked up speed.

In the lowest-lying areas along Louisiana's coast, roads were beginning to flood as of Wednesday afternoon, Louisiana Gov. John Bel Edwards said in a news conference.

"The storm surge flooding is starting now in Louisiana," he said. "It's well ahead of the storm. It will just get worse over the next day or so."

More than 200,000 people in the Calcasieu and Cameron parishes of southwestern Louisiana were placed under a mandatory evacuation order.

"If you're in those low-lying areas, if your local officials have told you that there's an evacuation in place, whether it's mandatory or voluntary, we need you evacuating now," Edwards said.

Laura's storm surge is expected to reach levels not seen in Louisiana since Hurricane Audrey in 1957, he said.

In Lake Charles, which is part of Calcasieu Parish, Mayor Nic Hunter told NPR member station WWNO that he was concerned not all residents were heeding those orders.

"I will be brutally honest," he said, "we are very concerned that not enough people are evacuating."

In Texas, around 400,000 people in Galveston, Beaumont and Port Arthur have been placed under mandatory evacuation orders. Texas Gov. Greg Abbott told reporters Wednesday that those in Laura's path should leave if they haven't already done so.

People walk along a jetty in Galveston, Texas, as waves roll in from Hurricane Laura as it approaches the U.S. on Wednesday.

Thomas B. Shea/Getty Images

"The power of Hurricane Laura is unprecedented, and Texans must take action now to get out of harm's way and protect themselves," Abbott said. "The State of Texas is prepared to respond to the storm, and we are working alongside federal and local officials to keep Texans safe."

Despite these warnings, some residents said they are going to stay behind, Florian Martin of Houston Public Media reported. Others said they are taking measures to prepare their homes, using storm shutters and generators.

Walter Rowe of Galveston said he has lived in the area his entire life, and he only evacuated for Hurricane Ike in 2008. He told Martin he wasn't sure whether he would leave this time.

"I'm not worried, that's kind of what happens down here," he said.

The COVID-19 pandemic is complicating efforts to shelter evacuees safely. They are being directed to hotels instead of typically crowded shelters. An intake center in Austin, Texas, began turning away evacuees Wednesday morning when it ran out of hotel rooms, KVUE reported.

Hunter, the Lake Charles mayor, said he suspects the coronavirus pandemic and economic hardship are leading many people to take pause. He said people who are staying behind will likely have to wait hours for first responders to reach them.

"As soon as winds get above 40 mph, it is just absolutely unsafe to have vehicles out on the road," Hunter said. "So if people are staying, there is going to be an extended period of time, at least four to six hours, where public safety, law enforcement will not be able to respond to you."

(VIDEO) North Korean Propaganda Is More Subtle Than Kimberly Guilfoyle’s Dark, Dark Speech 24AUG20

THIS is priceless! hitler would have tossed eva braun off the berghof if this crazy schlempe had been around! 

North Korean Propaganda Is More Subtle Than Kimberly Guilfoyle’s Dark, Dark Speech

We tested that theory by scoring her speech with orchestral propaganda music from the Hermit Kingdom.

• 

  JAMES WEST

  Deputy Editor, DigitalBio | Follow
• 
  

Kimberly Guilfoyle, a former Fox News host and current Trump campaign senior adviser, gave a bizarre, almost militaristically enthusiastic speech Monday night, the first night of the Republican National Convention. It was so deliriously pitched, intoned with such fervor, that it rivaled propaganda more commonly associated with state-run television. “President Trump believes in you. He emancipates and lifts you up to live your American Dream!” she boomed, capping a speech that seemed to make way more sense with ominous orchestral music in the background.

So that’s what our producer Mark Helenowski did: He scored it with North Korean propaganda music.

1835 August 25 "The Great Moon Hoax" is published in the "New York Sun", THE REPUBLICAN NATIONAL CONVENTION IS THIS WEEK 24-27AUG20

 

August 25, 2020

Good afternoon.

On this day in 1835, The Sun newspaper ran the first in a series of six stories claiming that a variety of mystical, intelligent life forms had been discovered on the moon. Can you imagine being convinced that there was proof that we weren't alone in the universe, only to find out it was all a hoax? It's like finding out that Santa Claus wasn't real. (The Sun would have you believe that yes, Virginia, there is a Santa Claus.)

I imagine the feeling of disappointment must be similar to that experienced by members of the Republican Party who once clung to the belief that it, too, harbored intelligent life. Imagine voting red all your life because you believe in, I don't know, limited government power and the right to bear arms, only to find, upon watching Monday night's Republican National Convention, that the loudest people they could get to sing the president's praises were fascistic sycophants who are literally employed by Trump.

Rand Paul, Mike Pompeo, and Melania Trump are speaking at the RNC tonight. If you need me, I'll be gazing wistfully at the moon.

—Abigail Weinberg

1835

August 25

"The Great Moon Hoax" is published in the "New York Sun"

On August 25, 1835, the first in a series of six articles announcing the supposed discovery of life on the moon appears in the New York Sun newspaper.

Known collectively as “The Great Moon Hoax,” the articles were supposedly reprinted from the Edinburgh Journal of Science. The byline was Dr. Andrew Grant, described as a colleague of Sir John Herschel, a famous astronomer of the day. Herschel had in fact traveled to Capetown, South Africa, in January 1834 to set up an observatory with a powerful new telescope. As Grant described it, Herschel had found evidence of life forms on the moon, including such fantastic animals as unicorns, two-legged beavers and furry, winged humanoids resembling bats. The articles also offered vivid description of the moon’s geography, complete with massive craters, enormous amethyst crystals, rushing rivers and lush vegetation.

The New York Sun, founded in 1833, was one of the new “penny press” papers that appealed to a wider audience with a cheaper price and a more narrative style of journalism. From the day the first moon hoax article was released, sales of the paper shot up considerably. It was exciting stuff, and readers lapped it up. The only problem was that none of it was true. The Edinburgh Journal of Science had stopped publication years earlier, and Grant was a fictional character. The articles were most likely written by Richard Adams Locke, a Sun reporter educated at Cambridge University. Intended as satire, they were designed to poke fun at earlier, serious speculations about extraterrestrial life, particularly those of Reverend Thomas Dick, a popular science writer who claimed in his bestselling books that the moon alone had 4.2 billion inhabitants.

Readers were completely taken in by the story, however, and failed to recognize it as satire. The craze over Herschel’s supposed discoveries even fooled a committee of Yale University scientists, who traveled to New York in search of the Edinburgh Journal articles. After Sun employees sent them back and forth between the printing and editorial offices, hoping to discourage them, the scientists returned to New Haven without realizing they had been tricked.

On September 16, 1835, the Sun admitted the articles had been a hoax. People were generally amused by the whole thing, and sales of the paper didn’t suffer. The Sun continued operation until 1950, when it merged with the New York World-Telegram. The merger folded in 1967. A new New York Sun newspaper was founded in 2002, but it had no relation to the original.

Firehose of falsehood: THE drumpf / trump-pence Orwellian propaganda campaign

WHAT day is it? No matter, because the reporting on voting today contradicts the reporting on voting yesterday and the day before and the week before. The drumpf / trump-pence administration in partnership with the gop / greed over people-republican party leadership and fox news is operating a massive Firehose of Falsehood propaganda campaign that has the country in an uproar over the status of the USPS, their ability to handle tens of millions of mail in ballots, as well as the risk of becoming infected with Covid-19 if one votes in person. The goal is to get the electorate so confused, angry and afraid that many will just not vote at all. Let that be the result for drumpf's / trump's-pence's supporters but Biden-Harris supporters must not give in to fear, must not give up on our country, must, in the words of the late, great John Lewis "We must go out and vote like we've never, ever voted before."  The election to vote drumpf / trump-pence out of office is TUESDAY, 3 NOVEMBER 2020. If you are mailing you vote to elect Biden-Harris best to get it in the mail by TUESDAY, 20 OCTOBER 2020.  Go to Rock the Vote or U.S. Vote Foundation to check your voter registration, to register to vote and to get details about voting in your state. THEN go to this post from the ACLU to learn your voting rights and what to do if someone tries to deny you your right to vote. 

Firehose of falsehood

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The firehose of falsehood, or firehosing, is a propaganda technique in which a large number of messages are broadcast rapidly, repetitively, and continuously over multiple channels (such as news and social media) without regard for truth or consistency. Since 2014, when it was successfully used by Russia during its annexation of Crimea, this model has been adopted by other governments and political movements around the world.^[1]

Contents

• 1Characteristics
• 2Campaigns
• 3Countermeasures
• 4See also
• 5References

Characteristics[edit]

The characteristics that distinguish this technique from Soviet Cold-War era propaganda techniques are a large number of messages and channels, and a "shameless" approach to disseminating falsehoods and contradictory messages. The immediate aim is to entertain, confuse, and overwhelm the audience. The "firehose" takes advantage of modern technology, such as the Internet and social media, and recent changes in the way people produce and consume news.^[1]

The high volume of messages and the use of multiple channels are effective because people are more likely to believe a story when it appears to have been reported by multiple sources.^[1] In addition to the recognizably Russian news source, RT, for example, Russia disseminates propaganda using dozens of proxy websites whose connection to RT is "disguised or downplayed."^[2] People are also more likely to believe a story when they think many others believe it, especially if those others belong to a group with which they identify. Thus, an army of trolls can influence a person's opinion by creating the false impression that a majority of that person's neighbors support a given view.^[1]

Using the firehose model, according to the RAND Corporation, the Russian government has had some success in getting people to believe and spread falsehoods and disbelieve truthful reporting. The success of this approach flouts the conventional wisdom that communication is more persuasive when it is truthful, credible, and non-contradictory.^[1]

Although the firehosing technique takes advantage of modern technology, it is informed by the thinking of the Russian revolutionary Vladimir Lenin, according to literary critic Michiko Kakutani. Lenin once explained that his heated language was "calculated not to convince, but to break up the ranks of the opponent, not to correct the mistake of the opponent, but to destroy him, to wipe his organization off the face of the earth." In his biography of Lenin, historian Victor Sebestyen described him as the "godfather" of "post-truth politics." Steve Bannon, the former head of Breitbart News and White House Chief Strategist in the administration of U.S. President Donald Trump, once described himself as a Leninist.^[3]

Kakutani also cites Vladislav Surkov, a Russian businessman and propagandist. Surkov helped engineer Vladimir Putin's rise to power by sowing chaos and confusion, and has suggested that the United States is also looking for a "strong hand" to lift it from increasing chaos.^[3]

Campaigns[edit]

According to The Washington Post, Kakutani and other sources, Russia has continued to use this propaganda technique in its dealings with Ukraine and Syria, against NATO allies, as part of its interference in the 2016 United States elections, and to interfere with elections in other countries.^[1][3][4] In November 2017, Russian state media published a number of stories claiming that coalition forces were purposely allowing Islamic State fighters to escape from Abu Kamal, Syria; the stories included a so-called "satellite image" which was later found to be a screen capture from a video game.^[5] In 2019, according to science writer William J. Broad of The New York Times, Russia began a "firehose of falsehood" campaign to convince Americans that 5G phones were a health hazard, even as Putin was ordering the launch of 5G networks in Russia.^[6]

According to author and former military intelligence officer John Loftus, Iran has been using similar methods to incite hatred against Saudi Arabia, the United States, and Israel. He claims that some fake news attributed to Russia was actually planted in the Western press by Iran.^[7]

During Indonesia's 2019 presidential race, incumbent Joko Widodo accused Prabowo Subianto's campaign team of disseminating hateful propaganda aided by foreign consultants, citing "Russian propaganda" and the "firehose of falsehood" model.^[8]

According to Mother Jones editor Monika Bauerlein, the firehose technique is increasingly being used against the press by American politicians. She warns readers to expect an increase in the use of several related tactics: the lawsuit threat, the "fake news" denial, and the ad hominem attack.^[9] Deepfake video also poses a serious threat, according to Belgian journalist Tom Van de Weghe, who warns that "we've only seen the beginning of fake news."^[10]

The firehosing technique has been successfully used by Antivaxxers to spread debunked theories about the supposed dangers of vaccination.^[11]

Countermeasures[edit]

Traditional counterpropaganda efforts are ineffective against this technique. As researchers at RAND put it, "Don't expect to counter the firehose of falsehood with the squirt gun of truth." They suggest:

• repeating the counterinformation
• providing an alternative story to fill in the gaps created when false "facts" are removed
• forewarning people about propaganda, highlighting the ways propagandists manipulate public opinion
• countering the effects of propaganda, rather than the propaganda itself; for example, to counter propaganda that undermines support for a cause, work to boost support for that cause rather than refuting the propaganda directly
• turning off the flow by enlisting the aid of Internet service providers and social media services, and conducting electronic warfare and cyberspace operations^[1]

Researchers at the German Marshall Fund suggest, among other things, being careful not to repeat or amplify the original false claim; repeating a false story, even to refute it, makes people more likely to believe it.^[12] Security expert Bruce Schneier recommends teaching digital literacy as part of an 8-step information operations kill chain.^[13]

Another way to combat disinformation is to respond quickly as events unfold and be the first to tell the story. An example of this occurred in February 2018, when Syrian pro-regime forces began shelling Syrian Democratic Forces near Khasham and coalition forces responded in self-defense. The Combined Joint Task Force – Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTF-OIR) immediately published a news release titled "Unprovoked attack by Syrian pro-regime forces prompts coalition defensive strikes." In response to the news, reporters from around the world flooded the CJTF–OIR with queries, which allowed CJTF–OIR to establish the facts before Russian news outlets could "spin" the story.^[5]

In "How We Win the Competition for Influence" (2019), military strategists Wilson C. Blythe and Luke T. Calhoun stress the importance of consistent messaging. They compare information operations to other weapons used by the military to target an enemy and achieve a desired result: "The information environment is an inherent part of today's battlefields."^[5]

See also[edit]

• Disinformation
• Gish gallop
• Illusory truth effect
• Post-truth politics
• Propaganda techniques
• Russian propaganda

References[edit]

1. ^ Jump up to:^{a b c d e f g} Paul, Christopher; Matthews, Miriam (January 1, 2016). "The Russian 'Firehose of Falsehood' Propaganda Model: Why It Might Work and Options to Counter It". RAND Corporation. doi:10.7249/PE198. JSTOR resrep02439.
2. ^ Kramer, Franklin D.; Speranza, Lauren D. (May 1, 2017). "Meeting the Russian Hybrid Challenge: A Comprehensive Strategic Framework". Atlantic Council: 9. JSTOR resrep03712.5.
3. ^ Jump up to:^a b c Kakutani, Michiko (2018). "The Firehose of Falsehood: Propaganda and Fake News". The Death of Truth: Notes on Falsehood in the Age of Trump. Crown/Archetype. pp. 94–104. ISBN 9780525574842.
4. ^ Caryl, Christian (April 5, 2017). "If you want to see Russian information warfare at its worst, visit these countries". The Washington Post.
5. ^ Jump up to:^a b c Blythe, Lt. Col. Wilson C., Jr.; Calhoun, Lt. Col. Luke T. (May 2019). "How We Win the Competition for Influence". Military Review.
6. ^ Broad, William J. (May 12, 2019). "Your 5G Phone Won't Hurt You. But Russia Wants You to Think Otherwise. RT America, a network known for sowing disinformation, has a new alarm: the coming '5G Apocalypse.'". The New York Times.
7. ^ "Iran Is Faking the Fake News". Ami Magazine. May 22, 2019.
8. ^ Sapiie, Marguerite Afra; Anya, Agnes (February 4, 2019). "Jokowi accuses Prabowo camp of enlisting foreign propaganda help". The Jakarta Post.
9. ^ Bauerlein, Monika (December 2017). "The Firehose of Falsehood". Nieman Lab.
10. ^ Van de Weghe, Tom (May 29, 2019). "Six lessons from my deepfakes research at Stanford: How should journalists address the growing problem of synthetic media". Medium.
11. ^ Firehosing: the systemic strategy that anti-vaxxers are using to spread misinformationby Lucky Tran, The Guardian, November 7, 2019
12. ^ Tworek, Heidi (February 1, 2017). "Political Communications in the 'Fake News' Era: Six Lessons for Europe". German Marshall Fund: 8. JSTOR resrep18898.
13. ^ Schneier, Bruce (April 24, 2019). "Toward an Information Operations Kill Chain". Lawfare (blog).