People of the East Coast, I bring sad and frigid news about what this
unending winter might deliver next week. The National Weather Service
that a “Nor’easter bomb” could be in store for the Mid-Atlantic on Tuesday night.
Here’s where I pause for a moment to note that this is just a
forecast made several days in advance, and obviously with such forecasts
you must remember that they are merely scientific pronouncements about
what
happen. The NWS notes in its warning that this is all about potential, so keep that in mind.
(The word “bomb” is used when low-pressure centers deepen at a particularly fast rate, according to
,
the kind of spring where I can start wearing sandals outside again — is
almost here! And with spring comes the salvation of warmth, comfort and
— what’s that,
Yes, a major storm will explode off the East Coast early next
week. Sure, call it a ‘meteorological bomb’. But the potentially
behemoth storm may only materially impact eastern New England.
Since yesterday, models have shifted the track of the storm farther
offshore and the consensus is trending towards more of a glancing blow
scenario for the Mid-Atlantic – including the Washington, D.C. area.
Yes, a slight shift back towards the coast is possible. So the entire
Mid-Atlantic and especially the Northeast – where the storm center is
likely to come somewhat closer – need to stay on alert.
This is a storm that models suggest will rapidly intensify Tuesday
into Wednesday, easily meeting the criteria for what meteorologists call
“explosive development” or “bombogenesis” in which the storm’s central
pressure plummets 24 mb in 24 hours. These kinds of storms can produce
severe impacts including very heavy rain and snow, wind gusts over 60
mph (especially in coastal areas), and coastal flooding.
But for now, the latest models suggest D.C. could well be spared the storm’s full force.
“For the Washington area, the operational models only forecast light
precipitation Tuesday, as they develop the low too far east to spread
the heavier precipitation into our area,” notes Wes Junker, Capital
Weather Gang’s winter weather expert. ” The models also are still
suggesting that the precipitation will fall during the day on Tuesday.
Light precipitation during daylight hours could be either rain or snow
but would not be a big deal if today’s runs of the operational models
are correct.”
But Junker also cautions it’s too soon to let our guard down: “The
latest GEFS ensemble guidance offers a big caveat as a few members
[simulations] still wrap up the low and spread heavy precipitation/snow
into the area. Therefore, despite the model trends, the storm still is
worth monitoring over the next couple of days.”
(The same holds true for the European model ensemble guidance – some simulations have the storm hitting us more directly.)
Let’s take a quick look at the latest operational models.
* The European model is mostly a miss for the D.C. area (and even
eastern New England is just grazed), with just a little rain and/or snow
Tuesday.
Storm simulation from European model from 8 a.m. Tuesday to 8 a.m. Wednesday (WeatherBell.com)
* The GFS model mostly misses D.C., but would have major impacts in New England, with snow, wind and coastal flooding.
Storm simulation of GFS model from 8 a.m. Tuesday to 8 a.m. Wednesday (WeatherBell.com)
* The Canadian model is pretty similar to the GFS…just grazing D.C. but delivering a blow to eastern New England.
Simulation of storm from Canadian model from 8 a.m. Tuesday to 8 a.m. Wednesday (Environment Canada)
As we’re right on the edge of this, stay tuned for updates over the weekend.