NORTON META TAG

12 July 2024

Severe drought is expanding over the D.C. area. Will meaningful rain ever come? 12JUL24

DROUGHT in the U.S. is not just a Western U.S. phenomenon and along with drought comes the increased risk of wild fires.  Water is life and we have to stop acting like we are entitled to waste it. So at home if the water in your toilet is yellow it is mellow, if it is brown flush it down. Stop wasting water by rinsing dishes before loading in the dishwasher. Use the auto-fill setting on your washer to avoid over filling with water. Take quicker showers, and unless your hair gets really dirty because of your job or activities cut back to washing your hair once a week. At restaurants don't ask for water or tell your server you don't want any water if you are not going to drink it. Water your garden at dusk to give plants time to absorb water before it evaporates, limit watering your lawn to once a week (STOP mowing you lawn until the drought is over). From the Washington Post.....

Severe drought is expanding over the D.C. area. Will meaningful rain ever come?

It’s one of the hottest and driest summers on record, but there may be some relief ahead.

July 11, 2024 at 12:13 p.m. EDT

Ian Livingston is a forecaster/photographer and information lead for the Capital Weather Gang. By day, Ian is a defense and national security researcher at a D.C. think tank. Twitter

The drought has come on quickly, meeting criteria for a “flash drought” because of its rapid onset. It began in June and has shown little sign of abating. It was the driest June on record in Virginia and also abnormally dry in neighboring states.

July has picked up where June left off. Thundershowers that swept through the region Wednesday night produced minimal rainfall, and most of the area has 3 to 4 inches less precipitation than normal so far this summer.

Percent of normal precipitation. (Ian Livingston)

The drought has worsened because of a vicious feedback cycle in which hot sunshine dries out the ground and causes temperatures to rise. The rising temperatures then speed up evaporation, which dries out the ground even more.

Drought change over the past month. (Ian Livingston)

The District is enduring its second-hottest summer on record so far, and Wednesday was the sixth consecutive day to reach at least 97 degrees, the second longest such streak on record.

Here’s how bad the drought is

A group of roofers take a lunch break after battling 95-degree temperatures Wednesday. (Ricky Carioti/The Washington Post)

The progression of the federal government’s drought monitor in recent weeks shows how drought has quickly expanded and intensified across the region.

Much of the area is now in moderate to severe drought, the second and third levels on a 1-to-5 scale.

While the intense heat has made the drought worse, its primary cause is the lack of rain. June and July are the region’s wettest months, but sunny skies have dominated.

The District has a rainfall deficit of 4.5 inches since June 1. Only 1.54 inches have fallen since then, third least on record. Baltimore and Dulles have received only 1.6 inches (eighth driest on record) and 1.75 inches (second driest on record), respectively, over the same period.

Precipitation during the past 30 days. (Ian Livingston)

The lack of rainfall has coincided with the summer solstice period when the sun is most intense. As a result, vegetation is suffering, with lawns turning brown and trees and other vegetation lacking water.

An improved outlook for rain

Some good news: Substantial rain could fall Friday, especially along and east of Interstate 95, where an inch or more could fall. Amounts will decrease to the west.

Predicted rainfall through Saturday morning from the National Weather Service. (WeatherBell)

Unfortunately, another round of excessively hot weather is predicted between Sunday and the middle of next week. Highs well into the 90s or even around 100 will quickly dry out the land surface again.


But after next week’s heat wave, a more promising weather pattern for rain could develop. The area is expected to sit between heat domes in the Southwest United States and western Atlantic Ocean, which will result in a southerly air flow.

While that will elevate humidity, it should also increase the potential for showers and thunderstorms.

The weather pattern forecast in 10 days from the European ensemble model shows an opening for more rain as the region sits near a dip in the jet stream between dominant heat domes. (WeatherBell)

If the remnants of a tropical storm or hurricane passed over the area, that would be the easiest way to dig out of the rainfall deficit. An active hurricane season is predicted, but there are no imminent signs of any storm that would turn into a big rainmaker for us.

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