BUFFALO BILLS YOU MAKE ME WANNA SHOUT !!!!! Back in the playoffs after their AMAZING defeat of the Pittsburgh Steelers (in spite of the officials who continue to SUCK). NE Patriots, I clush you, I clush your heads!
NFL analysts' game predictions | Bills at Patriots in Week 16
Can the Bills win at Foxboro, where they are 2-16 since 2000? Yes, they can. The Patriots offense is limited, and that's never a good thing against a good defense. The concern is the Bills offense against that Patriots defense. Even so, look for Josh Allen to play well as the Bills pull off the upset.
Pick: Bills 20, Patriots 17
Tom Brady and the New England offense are down to doing one thing well: Not turning the ball over. That's helped the Patriots build up a silly +24 turnover differential, including +3 when they snuck past the Bills in Buffalo back in Week 4. In a chilly game where I don't trust either offense to move the ball, the Patriots will need Josh Allen to provide extra possessions and good field position again. Brady won a Super Bowl in 2001 with a familiar recipe: limited offensive mistakes, a fantasy defense, a playoff bye and good fortune. That appears to be that Pats' only path forward this season, with two sub-standard offenses left on the schedule to dismantle before earning that bye.
Pick: New England Patriots 16, Buffalo Bills 14
This isn't exactly the defense Tom Brady and the Patriots' struggling offense wants to see as they fight for playoff positioning in the AFC. Likewise, Buffalo's offense is in for a struggle against the NFL's top scoring defense as it attempts to steal the division title from New England. In what's expected to be a close, low-scoring game, special teams and penalties will be factors. The Patriots have the edge in both areas.
Pick: Patriots 20, Bills 14
What to watch for: The Patriots' top slot cornerback Jonathan Jones (groin) is out, and that is significant. Jones has the lowest completion percentage against him of the 24 corners in the NFL who have faced more than 30 passes in the slot this season. Meanwhile, the Bills have run 3-WR personnel 69% of the time, fourth most in the NFL. Bills slot receiver Cole Beasley could have a big day. -- Mike Reiss
Bold prediction: As if predicting a Bills win at Gillette Stadium isn't bold enough, I'll go a step further. The Patriots have allowed four 100-yard rushers this season: Joe Mixon, Nick Chubb, Mark Ingram II and Buffalo's Frank Gore. They'll allow a fifth on Saturday, when Bills rookie Devin Singletary crosses the century mark. -- Marcel Louis-Jacques
Stat to know: According to NFL Next Gen Stats data, Buffalo's Tre'Davious White has allowed just a 47.5% completion percentage as the nearest defender, the fourth lowest among defenders who have been targeted at least 50 times. But New England's Stephon Gilmore actually ranks first (45.2%).
What's at stake: With a victory, the Patriots would clinch the AFC East title. And if the Chiefs also lose, the Patriots would clinch at least a first-round bye. But a Bills win moves the AFC East race into Week 17.
Louis-Jacques' pick: Bills 13, Patriots 10
Reiss' pick: Patriots 16, Bills 13
A stat that bears repeating from earlier this week: In the last five weeks, 29 quarterbacks have attempted at least 100 passes. Among that group, Tom Brady ranks 29th in completion percentage, yards per attempt and net yards per pass play. I thought the Patriots’ offense would’ve figured some things out by now, but that hasn’t been the case. I see a low-scoring, competitive game between two teams with really good defenses and would not be surprised to see Buffalo pull the upset.
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With a playoff berth firmly in hand, the Bills can take care of some unfinished business in their final two regular season games. There’s still a chance, an outside chance, to win the division. And part of the motivation this weekend is to try to even up the score with their long-time tormentors in New England.
Here’s a look at what fans should watch for this weekend for the Bills:
1. WHY NOT US?
It’s been 24 years since Buffalo’s last AFC East Crown. The Patriots have won the last 10 division titles.
And here we are in Week 16 with the division still undecided. The Bills must win their last two (Saturday at New England, next week home against the Jets) and the Patriots must lose their final two, Saturday and home again next week against the Dolphins.
And the Bills still have a remote chance of hosting a divisional round playoff game, if all that happens above and the Chiefs falter.
It’s unlikely, but possible. And it’s a year ahead of schedule, according to Pete Prisco, Senior NFL Columnist for CBS Sports.com. He told One Bills Live that he predicted months ago the Bills would win the division in 2020.
“I predicted they would win the division next year – that was my prediction,” Prisco said. “I said they get to the playoffs this year and win the division next year. I still think that’s going to happen.”
Prisco says a Buffalo win over New England would signify a new pecking order in the division.
“It’s the changing of the guard,” he said. “They will be the best team in the division next year.”
2. PATRIOTS OFFENSIVE SLIPPAGE?
New England’s 11-3 record has them among the league leaders and its defense is No. 1 in the NFL. But the Patriots offense has fallen off significantly in the last month and a half.
After averaging 31 points per game in the first eight games this year, New England has averaged 20 points in the last six. They won three and lost three of those six
Tom Brady’s passer rating in the last six games, 75.7, is the lowest among quarterbacks who’ve started five or more games since week nine. His completion percentage in those games was 54 percent and he’s averaged 5.4 yards per pass attempt.
It’s a fair question. At age 42, if Brady hits the wall, is this what it looks like? Some more answers could be on display Saturday.
3. BUFFALO’S DUAL THREAT QUARTERBACK
Second-year quarterback Josh Allen has stats going into week 16 that are remarkably similar to Brady’s this year. And as he gets set for his 26th NFL start, Allen is approaching another milestone.
He needs 50 yards passing this week to hit 5,000 passing yards in his career. Allen would join Robert Griffin III and Cam Newton as the only players in NFL history to reach 5,000 career passing yards and 1,000 rushing yards in fewer than 30 games.
4. PRO BOWL CORNRERBACKS ON PATROL
It might be the most intriguing matchup of the game and they won’t go head-to-head. But Bills cornerback Tre’Davious White and Patriots cornerback Stephon Gilmore will be on the Foxboro field with each recognized as elite talents at the position. White was just named to his first Pro Bowl team and Gilmore is going to his third Pro Bowl game.
ESPN NFL Insider Field Yates says they’re the best two cornerbacks in the league.
“I don’t think it’s close right now. I’m not even sure who the third best cornerback in football is right now,” Yates told One Bills Live. “I think that Tre’Davious and Stephon have set themselves up as the top two cornerbacks in football. They get things done in slightly different ways, but the production has been incredible for both of them.”
“Tre’Davious’ instincts are just going to absolutely always be a threat,” Yates continued. “He knows route concepts better than wide receivers know them sometimes. He’s been awesome. Stephon Gilmore has been brilliant as well. The two of them are the two best and most dominant cornerbacks in football in my opinion.”
5. POINTS AT A PREMIUM — AGAIN
They’re the top two defenses in the NFL in points allowed — New England gives up 13.6 points per game, the Bills give up 15.8. And it’s the fourth straight game the Bills have faced a top-10 defense.
It makes you wonder if the predictions of an NFL future filled with high-scoring run-up-the-score offensive firepower might be off the mark.
Mike Tirico of NBC Sports, who will call play-by-play of the Bills-New England matchup Saturday, says defense still matters a great deal.
“Even though we love offense, defense is still important,” Tirico told One Bills Live Wednesday. “If you can’t score, you can’t win. That’s part of what you’re seeing here in Buffalo — the defense gives the offense a base to play smart, complimentary football. Now that Josh Allen has learned, he’s a different quarterback than what he was back in week four. He’s taking care of the ball better. They’ve got a complimentary run game. Now, this is working. The base of this defense gives you a chance every week, and it travels.”
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