2012 Electoral Map Forecast
Using data from the Intrade Prediction Market
HUFFPOST ELECTION DASHBOARD 9AUG12
Sometimes it is hard to figure out what makes politicians tick. Thompson is 70 years old. It takes 20 years to get enough seniority in the Senate to get a chairmanship and thus real power (and then only if your party holds the majority). If Thompson wins he will basically be wasting his time there. Why bother to run then? Neumann is 58 and a congressman. For him, an open seat gives him a reasonable shot at a promotion. Hovde is a tea party type and is in it more for the ideology than anything else. Fitzgerald is only 45 and apparently ambitious, but the usual step up for a state legislator is to run for the House not the Senate. But now that poll after poll has shown he is in last place, why doesn't he throw in the towel and support the candidate he most agrees with rather than risk splitting that candidate's votes? Everyone can hope for a miracle, but in this case it seems unlikely. The primary is next Tuesday.
The winner of the primary will face Rep. Tammy Baldwin (D-WI) in November. Polls show Thompson leading her, Neumann tied with her, and the others losing badly to her.
Among liberals, 66% have an unfavorable view. For them, the political media probably means Fox News. It would have been nice if the poll had had more follow-up questions to figure out what people didn't like exactly. The demographic group where the media scored best is "did not complete high school," where 25% have a favorable impression and "only" 71% have an unfavorable impression. Most likely many of these people don't read any newspaper or watch any political shows on television. All in all, this is a testimony to how polarized our politics are. If anyone reads or sees or hears any news he or she doesn't like, the media get blamed for being unfair.
Among other things, the study exhibits class inversion (highly educated, well off voters are strongly Democratic), a large gender gap (women are Democrats, men are Republicans), racial polarization (minorities are strongly Democratic), and so on. This breakdown has been true for several years and is only becoming more locked in as time goes on. Needless to say, this constellation was not always the case. Franklin Delano Roosevelt's coalition was based on white men without college degrees. FDR is probably rolling over in his grave.
The only exception to the above is a Quinnipiac poll showing Romney to be +5 points on Obama in Colorado, a state with the right Demographics for the Democrats. Most likely this poll is simply an outlier and the next one will be like all the earlier ones showing Obama ahead in the Centennial state.
In contrast, Obama is unambiguously on record as opposing the site at Yucca Mountain and looking for another one, in no small part because the selection process was so flawed in the first place. It was essentially based on politics, not geology.
In particular, if President Obama is reelected, many on the right will blame Mitt Romney's refusal to focus on the social issues and will demand a fire-breathing conservative like Rick Santorum or Sarah Palin in 2016--someone who makes the social issues central to his or her campaign. What will happen to the young Republicans then? It is a nontrivial question and could affect the long-term prospects for the Republican Party.
"BOY DOES THIS PERSON REALLY SUCK" or "THIS PERSON IS GOD'S GIFT TO THE HUMAN RACE"
Probably with upper being the preferred case. Wikipedia prefers a bit more content and a mix of cases where possible. People who would write such things rarely have the patience to register, then come back 5 days later to deface the page (which would last maybe 30 seconds as other people would restore the original). Wikipedia is one of those ideas that in theory can't work but in practice actually does (in part due to the hard work of the editors, who know when to interfere with user edits).
* Denotes incumbent
The current view of the 2012 presidential election, based on HuffPost Pollster charts and analysis.
Updated: Thursday, Aug. 9 4:29 pm ET
Obama
281
Electoral Votes
Romney
191
Electoral Votes
270 electoral votes needed to win
191 Strong Obama
90 Leans Obama
66 Tossup
0 Leans Romney
191 Strong Romney
Cartogram
Traditional map
Democrat
Republican
| Pollster outlook | Past results | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| State | Electoral votes | Obama | Romney | Margin | '08 | '04 | '00 |
| Alabama | 9 | R | R | R | |||
| Alaska | 3 | R | R | R | |||
| Arizona | 11 | 41% | 54% | Romney +12 | R | R | R |
| Arkansas | 6 | R | R | R | |||
| California | 55 | 52% | 35% | Obama +17 | D | D | D |
| Colorado | 9 | 47% | 47% | Tossup | D | R | R |
| Connecticut | 7 | D | D | D | |||
| Delaware | 3 | D | D | D | |||
| District of Columbia | 3 | D | D | D | |||
| Florida | 29 | 47% | 45% | Tossup | D | R | R |
| Georgia | 16 | 40% | 52% | Romney +12 | R | R | R |
| Hawaii | 4 | D | D | D | |||
| Idaho | 4 | R | R | R | |||
| Illinois | 20 | D | D | D | |||
| Indiana | 11 | D | R | R | |||
| Iowa | 6 | 47% | 44% | Obama +3 | D | R | D |
| Kansas | 6 | R | R | R | |||
| Kentucky | 8 | R | R | R | |||
| Louisiana | 8 | R | R | R | |||
| Maine | 4 | 49% | 34% | Obama +15 | D | D | D |
| Maryland | 10 | D | D | D | |||
| Massachusetts | 11 | 57% | 36% | Obama +21 | D | D | D |
| Michigan | 16 | 48% | 43% | Obama +5 | D | D | D |
| Minnesota | 10 | 46% | 40% | Obama +6 | D | D | D |
| Mississippi | 6 | R | R | R | |||
| Missouri | 10 | 42% | 50% | Romney +8 | R | R | R |
| Montana | 3 | 42% | 51% | Romney +9 | R | R | R |
| Nebraska | 5 | R* | R | R | |||
| Nevada | 6 | 50% | 45% | Obama +5 | D | R | R |
| New Hampshire | 4 | 48% | 45% | Obama +3 | D | D | R |
| New Jersey | 14 | 49% | 38% | Obama +12 | D | D | D |
| New Mexico | 5 | 50% | 40% | Obama +10 | D | R | D |
| New York | 29 | 58% | 33% | Obama +25 | D | D | D |
| North Carolina | 15 | 46% | 48% | Tossup | D | R | R |
| North Dakota | 3 | 35% | 54% | Romney +19 | R | R | R |
| Ohio | 18 | 48% | 43% | Obama +4 | D | R | R |
| Oklahoma | 7 | R | R | R | |||
| Oregon | 7 | 50% | 42% | Obama +8 | D | D | D |
| Pennsylvania | 20 | 48% | 42% | Obama +6 | D | D | D |
| Rhode Island | 4 | D | D | D | |||
| South Carolina | 9 | R | R | R | |||
| South Dakota | 3 | R | R | R | |||
| Tennessee | 11 | R | R | R | |||
| Texas | 38 | 35% | 55% | Romney +20 | R | R | R |
| Utah | 6 | R | R | R | |||
| Vermont | 3 | D | D | D | |||
| Virginia | 13 | 47% | 45% | Tossup | D | R | R |
| Washington | 12 | 52% | 37% | Obama +15 | D | D | D |
| West Virginia | 5 | R | R | R | |||
| Wisconsin | 10 | 50% | 44% | Obama +6 | D | D | D |
| Wyoming | 3 | R | R | R | |||
*In 2008, Nebraska's electoral votes were split. McCain took four of the state's five electoral votes and Obama took one.
Around the Web:
Presidential Election Map 2012 - The Washington Post
Presidential Race Ratings and Swing States - Election 2012 - NYTimes.com
2012 Election: Electoral Vote Tracker - USATODAY.com
Electoral Map - Election Center 2012 - Elections & Politics from CNN.com
The Road To 270: Predict The 2012 Presidential Race : NPR
RealClearPolitics - 2012 Election Maps - Battle for White House
2012 Political Map Center | PBS NewsHour
Electoral-vote.com: President, Senate, House Updated Daily
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/2012/romney-vs-obama-electoral-map?hw Presidential Election Map 2012 - The Washington PostPresidential Race Ratings and Swing States - Election 2012 - NYTimes.com2012 Election: Electoral Vote Tracker - USATODAY.comElectoral Map - Election Center 2012 - Elections & Politics from CNN.comThe Road To 270: Predict The 2012 Presidential Race : NPRRealClearPolitics - 2012 Election Maps - Battle for White House2012 Political Map Center | PBS NewsHourElectoral-vote.com: President, Senate, House Updated Daily
- Strongly Dem (172)
- Likely Dem (105)
- Barely Dem (46)
- Exactly tied (9)
- Barely GOP (15)
- Likely GOP (52)
- Strongly GOP (139)
270 Electoral votes needed to win
Map algorithm explained
New polls:
CO VA WI
Dem pickups:
(None)
GOP pickups:
IN NC
|
News from the Votemaster
Thompson Leads in Wisconsin Republican Primary
A new Marquette Law School poll shows former Wisconsin governor, Tommy Thompson, leading the Wisconsin Republican Senate primary field with 28%, followed by businessman Eric Hovde at 20%. Trailing are Rep. Mark Neumann (R-WI) at 18% and Assembly Speaker Jeff Fitzgerald at 13%. Earlier polls have shown Hovde leading, so it appears to be a two-man race between Thompson and Hovde.Sometimes it is hard to figure out what makes politicians tick. Thompson is 70 years old. It takes 20 years to get enough seniority in the Senate to get a chairmanship and thus real power (and then only if your party holds the majority). If Thompson wins he will basically be wasting his time there. Why bother to run then? Neumann is 58 and a congressman. For him, an open seat gives him a reasonable shot at a promotion. Hovde is a tea party type and is in it more for the ideology than anything else. Fitzgerald is only 45 and apparently ambitious, but the usual step up for a state legislator is to run for the House not the Senate. But now that poll after poll has shown he is in last place, why doesn't he throw in the towel and support the candidate he most agrees with rather than risk splitting that candidate's votes? Everyone can hope for a miracle, but in this case it seems unlikely. The primary is next Tuesday.
The winner of the primary will face Rep. Tammy Baldwin (D-WI) in November. Polls show Thompson leading her, Neumann tied with her, and the others losing badly to her.
Americans Have Almost No Faith in the Political Media
A poll of Americans on various topics shows that a whopping 78% have an unfavorable view of the political media and only 10% have a favorable view. Among conservatives the tilt is even bigger, with 87% having an unfavorable view. For conservatives, "political media" is basically a code phrase for the New York Times, which probably few of them ever look at. If asked what they think of the far larger Fox News or the Wall Street Journal or Rush Limbaugh, it is hard to believe 87% would have an unfavorable view.Among liberals, 66% have an unfavorable view. For them, the political media probably means Fox News. It would have been nice if the poll had had more follow-up questions to figure out what people didn't like exactly. The demographic group where the media scored best is "did not complete high school," where 25% have a favorable impression and "only" 71% have an unfavorable impression. Most likely many of these people don't read any newspaper or watch any political shows on television. All in all, this is a testimony to how polarized our politics are. If anyone reads or sees or hears any news he or she doesn't like, the media get blamed for being unfair.
In Politics, Demography is Destiny
The issues don't matter, the gaffes don't matter, and the news cycle doesn't matter. You show me a young single woman with a graduate degree and I will show you a Democrat. Or if you turn up with a white male gun owner who didn't go to college (and maybe didn't even finish high school), you can make him happy by giving him an elephant button to wear. With one anomaly, an analysis of recent polls shows a tremendous amount of consistency, with demography trumping geography and just about everything else. This year the candidates are going to spend north of a billion dollars to influence a tiny sliver of the electorate that is potentially open to being swayed. For everyone else, the dice have already been rolled and nothing is going to change the outcome.Among other things, the study exhibits class inversion (highly educated, well off voters are strongly Democratic), a large gender gap (women are Democrats, men are Republicans), racial polarization (minorities are strongly Democratic), and so on. This breakdown has been true for several years and is only becoming more locked in as time goes on. Needless to say, this constellation was not always the case. Franklin Delano Roosevelt's coalition was based on white men without college degrees. FDR is probably rolling over in his grave.
The only exception to the above is a Quinnipiac poll showing Romney to be +5 points on Obama in Colorado, a state with the right Demographics for the Democrats. Most likely this poll is simply an outlier and the next one will be like all the earlier ones showing Obama ahead in the Centennial state.
Romney Waffles on Nuclear Waste
In 1987, Congress was looking for a place to store the nation's nuclear waste, some of which will remain deadly for thousands of years. The requirements were that the state that was going to receive the waste had to (1) have a lot of open space with few people and (2) very little political clout in Washington to oppose it. Nevada won, so to speak. Unfortunately, when Nevadans heard this, they were not too keen on the idea and the storage facility at Yucca Mountain has been a political football ever since. Yesterday Mitt Romney waded into the matter and basically said despite 25 years of people studying the plan, he didn't really have a position on the matter (English translation: I don't actually care where this stuff goes but I really do want Nevada's 6 electoral votes). What he proposed is a free market solution: states could bid for the waste, saying how much someone would have to pay them to take it. The cheapest repository would win. The trouble is suppose that no state would take it for any amount of money. Then what? It has to go somewhere.In contrast, Obama is unambiguously on record as opposing the site at Yucca Mountain and looking for another one, in no small part because the selection process was so flawed in the first place. It was essentially based on politics, not geology.
Young Republicans Are Not Like Old Republicans
College Republicans and young Republicans generally are not on the same page as their elders on a variety of points, especially hot-button social issues. Many young Republicans do not see anything wrong with abortion or same-sex marriage. What they are concerned about is the economy and whether they can find jobs when they graduate from college. While every vote is welcomed in 2012, when the economy recovers in a few years and the economy recedes as an issue, one has to wonder whether these young people will retain their party loyalty.In particular, if President Obama is reelected, many on the right will blame Mitt Romney's refusal to focus on the social issues and will demand a fire-breathing conservative like Rick Santorum or Sarah Palin in 2016--someone who makes the social issues central to his or her campaign. What will happen to the young Republicans then? It is a nontrivial question and could affect the long-term prospects for the Republican Party.
Wikipedia Locks Down Pages for Potential Veep Picks
After comedian Steven Colbert urged his viewers to go edit the pages of people who are probably on Mitt Romney's short list of possible running mates, so many of them did that Wikipedia locked the pages to prevent further edits. Of course it can't keep the pages locked down indefinitely. Probably after the choice is announced, the page of the winner will be locked down for a little while and then monitored very closely. What is also likely is allowing edits only from people who have been registered Wikipedia users for 4 days or more. It turns out that this is a substantial barrier to people who suddenly get the idea to remove the entire content of the page and replace it with"BOY DOES THIS PERSON REALLY SUCK" or "THIS PERSON IS GOD'S GIFT TO THE HUMAN RACE"
Probably with upper being the preferred case. Wikipedia prefers a bit more content and a mix of cases where possible. People who would write such things rarely have the patience to register, then come back 5 days later to deface the page (which would last maybe 30 seconds as other people would restore the original). Wikipedia is one of those ideas that in theory can't work but in practice actually does (in part due to the hard work of the editors, who know when to interfere with user edits).
Today's Presidential Polls
As mentioned above, the Colorado poll showing Mitt Romney way ahead in Colorado looks suspicious. It is probably just a statistical outlier.| State | Obama | Romney | Start | End | Pollster | |
| Colorado | 45% | 50% | Jul 31 | Aug 06 | Quinnipiac U. | |
| Virginia | 48% | 46% | Aug 07 | Aug 07 | Rasmussen | |
| Virginia | 49% | 45% | Jul 31 | Aug 06 | Quinnipiac U. | |
| Wisconsin | 50% | 45% | Aug 02 | Aug 05 | Marquette Law School | |
| Wisconsin | 51% | 45% | Jul 31 | Aug 06 | Quinnipiac U. |
Today's Senate Polls
| State | Democrat | D % | Republican | R % | I | I % | Start | End | Pollster |
| Missouri | Claire McCaskill* | 44% | Todd Akin | 45% | Jul 24 | Jul 27 | PPP | ||
| Missouri | Claire McCaskill* | 44% | Todd Akin | 47% | Jul 30 | Jul 30 | Rasmussen | ||
| Missouri | Claire McCaskill* | 44% | Todd Akin | 49% | Jul 23 | Jul 25 | Mason Dixon | ||
| Virginia | Tim Kaine | 48% | George Allen | 46% | Jul 31 | Aug 06 | Quinnipiac U. |
* Denotes incumbent
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