HURRICANE / FRANKENSTORM SANDY has started here in Herndon, the rain started about 1900 (7 PM) and it is getting heavier, still not much wind, just gust to 19 MPH, steady about 5 MPH. Flights are cancelled, airports are closing, Metro is closed on Monday as are almost all the schools and government offices. We shall see what Monday brings.....
By Paul Schwartzman, Published: October 27 |
Updated: Sunday, October 28, 10:47 AM
A hurricane of enormous force continues to march north today, ready to
hammer the D.C. region sometime on Monday and disrupt life for millions as it sweeps across eight states toward Canada.
From North Carolina to the coastal edges of Maine, public officials
are urging residents to fortify themselves against Hurricane Sandy,
which is expected to unleash torrential rains and winds of up to 75 mph,
even for those residing as far as 100 miles from the storm’s center.
By
Sunday morning, officials in Haiti said the storm was responsible for
65 deaths, as Sandy blew through the Bahamas and traveled north over
the Atlantic Ocean, several hundred miles southeast of Charleston, S.C.
Two
computer tracking systems remained in agreement that the hurricane
would arrive on shore between the Delmarva Peninsula and Rhode Island.
But Sandy’s reach will extend as far as 450 miles from its core, which
prompted at least one governor, Chris Christie of New Jersey, to order
evacuations of coastal areas and the state’s casinos.
The
impending storm disrupted the rhythms of an otherwise warm fall weekend,
as utility crews up and down the East Coast worked overtime to prepare,
and hordes of anxious shoppers crowded into supermarkets and supply
stores.
Even the
presidential campaigns were touched.
President Obama switched travel plans so he could leave Washington on
Sunday before the storm begins and reach rallies in Florida and Ohio.
Instead of hosting three events in Virginia on Sunday, Republican Mitt
Romney’s campaign said the candidate would fly to Ohio.
Federal
officials said that they expected the storm to create damaging flood and
wind conditions across a vast and densely populated portion of the
United States, from Virginia to New England, and as far west as the
Great Lakes.
“We need to make sure people understand that this is
going to go well inland,” Craig Fugate, the administrator for the
Federal Emergency Management Agency, said in a conference call with
reporters. “This is not a coastal threat alone.”
FEMA officials
said they were uncertain which areas would be the most ravaged. The
hurricane itself is expected to lose intensity before it merges with a
separate storm system in the northeast.
Yet Sandy’s breadth makes its precise path almost irrelevant.
State
and federal officials, Fugate said, are planning for several
treacherous days throughout the Mid-Atlantic states, probably beginning
Monday and perhaps extending to Thursday. Forecasters expect flash
flooding from as much as 8 inches of rain. They are preparing for as
much as two feet of snow in West Virginia, Virginia and North Carolina
mountains.
In the Washington region, Jason Samenow, a meteorologist for The Washington Post’s
Capital Weather Gang,
predicted the worst of the storm to begin Monday, bringing as much as
six inches of rain and causing wind gusts of as high as 60 mph.
D.C.
Mayor Vincent C. Gray and the governors of Maryland and Virginia, as
well as officials in several localities in the region, already have
declared states of emergency.
In New Jersey, Christie announced
mandatory evacuation of Atlantic City casinos and coastal barrier
islands by 4 p.m. Sunday. He warned that power could be out for days.
“Everyone’s
saying, ‘This . . . isn’t going to happen — the weathermen always get
it wrong, so I’m just going to hang out here,’ ” Christie told reporters
Saturday. “Please don’t, okay? We have to be prepared for the worst
here.”
Amtrak began canceling some service. Beginning Sunday, some
runs were to be canceled between Washington and New York, Miami and New
York, and Chicago and Washington. Megabus said it would cancel runs
between New York and Washington after 5 p.m. Sunday. Boltbus said it
would cancel Monday and Tuesday service in the Northeast.
James
Baker, the mayor of Wilmington, Del., issued an evacuation order for the
southeastern section of his city, an edict that will require some 3,000
residents to clear out before the storm strikes.
In New York
City, Mayor Michael Bloomberg advised residents and visitors to stay out
of the parks. Construction sites also were ordered shut down.
Across
the Washington region, people crowded into supermarkets and hardware
stores, loading up on food and supplies, if there were any to be found.
Customers
took up to a half hour to find parking on Saturday at the Georgetown
Safeway, where bottled water was gone by late afternoon and two
shoppers argued over the last box of elbow pasta.
At Target in
Columbia Heights, flashlights were gone by Saturday morning. Sales of
gasoline were up 20 percent at an Exxon station on Wilson Boulevard in
Virginia, where the manager called the supplier to order more.
“People are worried,” said Dharmendra Tanna, the assistant manager. “We have not seen anything like this.”
“Everyone has freaked out. Wow,” said Jennifer Gaskins, 59, as
she gaped at the bare hooks where the flashlights would have hung.
In
the District, social services workers tried to warn homeless people
and tell them that the city would keep shelters open around the clock
beginning Monday.
“We’ll keep them open all day long for the
duration of the hurricane and the aftermath,” said David A. Berns,
director of the District’s Department of Human Services. “Otherwise, the
homeless adults would be on the street.”
Public utility crews
were preparing.Pepco, the power company for the District and suburban
Maryland that has been criticized for poor reliability, warned customers
of the possibility of long periods without electricity.
Company
officials predicted that trees still thick with leaves could collapse
under the rain and wind, falling on lines, snapping poles and bringing
down wires.
Pepco has asked for additional utility workers from
2,900 to 3,600.The Baltimore Gas and Electric Co. said it had asked for
2,000 out-of-state utility workers, and the first 1,300 were to begin
arriving at Baltimore-Washington International Marshall Airport Sunday.
BGE sent out automated phone calls urging customers to have a plan in place to protect their families and property.
Joe Stephens, Howard Schneider, Rebecca Cohen, Ashley Halsey, Martin Weil and Caitlin Gibson contributed to this report.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/local/hurricane-sandy-continues-its-march-to-the-east-coast/2012/10/27/4f1a3d3e-204e-11e2-ba31-3083ca97c314_story.html?wpisrc=nl_headlines
Hurricane Sandy and Washington, D.C.: Detailed storm timeline, maps, and frequent questions
(originally posted at 3 p.m., updated at 6 p.m. and 7:40 p.m.)
*** High Wind Warning | Flood Watch | How to prepare | Latest storm news| The Grid: Explore latest tweets, photos, videos and more | Video forecast ***
Update, 7:40 p.m.: The National Weather Service has increased its
peak wind gust estimate to 70 mph for the region and upped rainfall
totals to 5-10”. See:
A fiercer forecast for Hurricane Sandy’s effects on Washington, D.C.
Live Weather Updates from
CWG’s Twitter Feed. Refresh page for latest.
Wind gusts: Latest D.C. area wind gusts (mph). See more maps on our Weather Wall.
Today, forecasts have converged on one scenario for Hurricane Sandy’s
impact on Washington, D.C., and it’s severe. In short, between Sunday
night and Tuesday, we can expect 4-7” of rain and a long period of
sustained winds above 35 mph with peak gusts over 60 mph. This will
inevitably result in flooding and power outages.
Consider this post your detailed guide to this storm. It contains a
storm timeline, local wind and rain maps, and answers to frequently
asked questions.
Radar & lightning: Latest D.C. area radar shows movement of precipitation and lightning strikes over past two hours. Refresh page to update. Click here or on image to enlarge. Or see radar bigger on our Weather Wall.
STORM TIMELINE
Important note: Heaviest rain and strongest winds will tend to be
east of I-95 when ranges are given. Coldest temperatures will be north
and west of I-95.
Sunday afternoon: a chance of showers, mainly east of I-95. Breezy (winds 15-25 mph from the north, gusts to 30 mph) with temps 55-60.
6 p.m. Sunday to midnight: Rain showers becoming likely, steadiest east of I-95. Winds 20-30 mph (from the north), gusts to 35 mph. Temps 50-55.
12 a.m. Monday to 6:00 am.: Rain showers likely, heavy east of I-95. Winds 25-35 mph (from the north), gusts to 40 mph. Temps 48-53.
CWG forecast: Peak sustained winds and gusts
6 a.m. Monday to noon: Rain showers likely, becoming heavy, especially east of I-95. Winds 30-40 mph (from the north), gusts to 45 mph. Temps 49-53.
Noon Monday to 6 p.m.: Heavy rain. Winds 35-45 mph (from the north), gusts to 50-60 mph. Temps 47-51.
6 p.m. Monday to midnight: Heavy rain. Winds 35-50 mph (from the north), gusts 50-70 mph. Turning cold, temps 42-47.
Midnight Tuesday to 6 a.m.: Heavy rain. Winds 30-40 mph (from the
northwest), gusts 40-60 mph. Cold, temps 37-42. (Outside chance
snowflakes western Loudoun and Frederick counties)
CWG forecast: Rainfall totals
6 a.m. Tuesday to noon: Rain. Winds 25-35 mph (from the southwest), gusts 35-50 mph. Temps 39-44.
Noon Tuesday to 6 p.m.: Showery. Winds 25-35 mph (from the southwest), gusts 35-45 mph. Temps 43-47.
6 p.m. Tuesday to midnight: Showers diminishing. Winds 20-30 mph (from the southwest), gusts 30-40 mph.
FREQUENT QUESTIONS
How will Sandy compare with the D.C. derecho? Sandy is a
slow-moving, large-scale storm capable of strong winds and heavy rain
over an extended period. Whereas the derecho devastated locations across
the D.C. area in a matter of minutes. Impact-wise, we’d recommend
preparing for the same impacts as the derecho - downed trees and the
potential for multiple days without power.
On the positive side, utilities and local governments and the public
will have had several days warning this time versus several hours (if
that) for the derecho. So, there’s a chance the impacts may not be quite
as bad or last quite as long. But you should prepare for the worst and
hope for the best.
If the derecho was a 10 on a 1-to-10 impact scale here in the D.C.
area, we think Sandy will be about an 8. That’s just an estimate though.
Is the storm overhyped? Could it still miss us like some snowstorms do?
Models have come into solid agreement on Sandy's general track and
strength. So our confidence in the forecast is relatively high compared
to some of the trickier snowstorms we’ve seen in the past. Small changes
in track could give us less rain and weaker winds than we’re expecting.
But at this point it seems unlikely we’ll avoid moderate to major
impacts. One wildcard, though, is that the power grid was largely
rebuilt after the June derecho, so maybe it fares a little better this
time or at least recovers more quickly.
How should I prepare for the storm? See our earlier post with tips on
how to prepare for Sandy.
When will we see the worst of the storm? When will it begin and end?
There may be some showers Sunday and Sunday night (especially east of
I-95) and likely increasing winds, but the strongest winds and heaviest
rain should occur Monday into or through the day Tuesday. Wind and rain
should ease Tuesday night.
How strong will the winds be and what is the risk of power outages? A
High Wind Warning
has been issued for Sunday night through Tuesday. Right now we think
peak winds late Monday into early Tuesday will be around 35-50 mph with
gusts to 55-70 mph (areas east of I-95 are likely to see the higher end
of these ranges, while winds west of I-95 may not be quite as strong).
Power outages are likely and many could be without power for multiple
days.
How much rain will we get? What about flooding? A
Flood Watch
is in effect. Total rainfall looks to be in the 4-7” range, but locally
higher totals are possible especially east and northeast of town, and
locally lower totals are possible especially southwest of the city.
Flooding of low-lying areas and rivers/streams/creeks is likely.
Who will get the worst of Sandy? Areas along the coast close to
and just north of where Sandy makes landfall will get the worst,
especially in terms of storm surge. As of now that looks to be from
central New Jersey north to Rhode Island, including Philadelphia and New
York City.
How will this compare to Hurricane Isabel in 2003? How bad will coastal flooding be on the Bay and Tidal Potomac? The winds may be similar in strength. But Sandy’s
likely track just to our northeast is such that we shouldn’t see a storm surge up the Potomac like we did with Isabel, which
passed to our southwest.
Surge and winds are always worst just to the north and east of where
the storm tracks. Isabel raised water levels up to 9 feet along the
Potomac.
When winds take on a more southerly component late Monday night, Sandy may raise water levels 1 to 3 feet on the
west side of the Chesapeake Bay and
on the tidal Potomac (coastal flood warnings are in effect for these areas Monday night to Wednesday warning).
Simulation of blocking flow in atmosphere
(Penn State)
Why isn’t Sandy going out to sea? To put it simply, there’s a
traffic jam in the atmosphere. A “blocking” area of high pressure west
of Greenland and a big ocean storm to its east are working to prevent a
cold front coming from the west from pushing Sandy out to sea.
Isn’t the storm not supposed to be a hurricane once it gets here?
Technically, yes. The storm is losing its tropical characteristics as
it moves north into cooler air. But, it’s expected to strengthen again
as an unusual pattern featuring multiple jet streaks (rivers of
fast-moving winds high up in the atmosphere) pumps the storm with a new
shot of energy.
What will schools and governments (federal and local) do on Monday? (
from 3:00 p.m.) Seems likely there will be a lot of closings. Many school systems have already decided to close.
6:00 p.m. update: Most school systems are closed Monday and the Federal government is closed.
Here’s our
SchoolCast and
FedCast:
SchoolCast:
FedCast:
Additional closings are likely Tuesday.
One model suggests a little wet snow could fall west of town if enough cold air wraps in.
(
StormVistaWxModels
)
Will it snow? Toward the end of the storm on Tuesday, D.C.’s
west/northwest suburbs, especially Frederick/Loudoun counties and spots
over 1,000 feet, could see some snowflakes, but accumulation isn’t
likely. Heavy snow is likely in the mountains of western Maryland, West
Virginia and southwest Virginia , with some accumulations over a foot
combined with wind gusts over 50 mph resulting in power outages.
Blizzard warnings have been issued for Garrett county in western Maryland and the high country of eastern West Virginia Monday night and Tuesday.
What about the Eastern shore? Severe coastal flooding is expected
for the Maryland and Delaware beaches with water levels up to 4 feet
above normal. NWS says that near-shore waves 9 to 15 feet will result in
severe beach erosion, and that “WATER LEVELS FROM CHINCOTEAGUE TO OCEAN
CITY COULD RIVAL THOSE REACHED IN GLORIA IN 1985.” Also, a
Storm Warning is in effect for the Tidal Potomac and
Hurricane Force Wind Warning for the Chesapeake Bay.
Where can I find latest tide and surge info?
Here and
here.
How does this compare to other historic storms? Many have compared Sandy to the Perfect Storm of 1991, and
experts have warned it may be even worse. Generally speaking, though, each storm has its own character and sometimes you just can’t compare until all is said and done.
By
Jason Samenow and Dan Stillman
|
06:00 PM ET, 10/28/2012
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/post/hurricane-sandy-and-washington-dc-detailed-storm-timeline-maps-and-frequent-questions/2012/10/28/2c24af1a-2127-11e2-ac85-e669876c6a24_blog.html?tid=pm_local_pop
Cause for concern: the 7 most alarming Hurricane Sandy images
Satellite view of Hurricane Sandy Sunday morning. Tropical storm winds extended up to 520 miles from the center
(NOAA)
Hurricane Sandy is gearing up to bring ashore a smorgasbord of
hazardous weather: Rip-roaring winds, flooding rain, crippling mountain
snow, and a potentially devastating storm surge in some areas. This
storm will impact 50-60 million people says NOAA.
Here are the images the tell the story.
Wind
This image shows projected wind speeds (from the GFS model) at an
altitude of about 3,000 feet at 8 p.m. Monday night in knots. Notice
they are near 90 knots over Washington, D.C. and Baltimore, and over 60
knots over the entire megalopolis from D.C. to Boston. Thankfully,
winds at 3,000 feet translate to lesser values at the surface (where we
live) - probably by about 25 percent. But -
assuming this model is
in the ball park - winds across the entire northeast I-95 corridor may
well be gusting to 45-70 knots Monday evening, or 50-80 mph!
(WeatherBell.com)
What would winds of 50-80 mph up and down the East Coast mean in
terms of power outages? Researchers at Johns Hopkins University have
developed a model for that:
Seth Guikema (pronounced Guy-keh-ma) and his team have developed a
computer model built on outage data from 11 hurricanes to estimate the
fraction of customers who will lose power, based on expected gust wind
speed, expected duration of strong winds greater than 20 meters per
second, and population density.
They find, conservatively, 10 million customers along the Eastern seaboard will lose power from Sandy. The image below indicates where outages are projected to be most highly concentrated.
Power outage density projection map based on forecast Hurricane Sandy winds
(Johns Hopkins University)
Rain
Sandy is predicted to drop a ton of water: from 4-8” in the Washington, D.C. area to 5-10” over the Delmarva peninsula.
(NOAA)
How historic would the amount of rain forecast be? Weather Decisions
Technology (WDT) has prepared an analysis shown below. Its model
projects Sandy to be a 500-to-1,000 year precipation event for some
parts of the Mid-Atlantic with a 100-250 year precipitation event for
broader areas mainly over the Delmarva peninsula. In the immediate
Washington, D.C. area, it suggests a 1-10 year type event.
I would caution that the exact areas where the heaviest rain will
fall is very difficult to predict. So while this map gives an idea of
the historic potential of this event, the most extreme values will
probably not coincide exactly where modeled here.
Color
shades indicate historic rainfall potential, e.g. 1-year rainfall
event, 10-year rainfall event, 50-year rainfall event, etc.
(Weather Decision Technologies Weather Opps)
Storm Surge
There is the possibility of a devastating 6-11 foot storm surge in
Long Island Sound, Raritan Bay and New York Harbor. Low-lying areas of
New York City (where evacuation orders have been issued) are likely to
be flooded, and possibly parts of the subway system. Farther south, the
storm surge will gradually decrease but major to severe coastal
flooding is anticipated from the Mid-Atlantic on northward. This map
shows a projection.
(
Paul Douglas Weather Blog
)
Mountain snow
Several
feet of snow are possible at high elevations in West
Virginia, which would be record-breaking for this time of year. The map
below shows one projection for snow totals from the NAM model. Couple
these snow amounts with winds which may gust over 50 mph, and power
outages are very likely in mountainous West Virginia. Heavy snow may
fall in the mountains of southwest Virginia and western North Carolina
as well.
(Weatherbell.com)
By
Jason Samenow
|
11:15 AM ET, 10/28/2012
