WITH michael cohen pleading guilty and paul manafort found guilty of 8 charges against him and the possibility of a Blue Wave in the 2018 midterm elections things are not looking good for NOT MY pres drumpf/trump. Some Democrats are counting their chicken before they are hatched, and some of the pundits who told us Clinton-Kaine were going to win in 2016 are now discussing the impeachment of drumpf/trump. What too many people are not aware of is just how evil NOT MY vice-pres pence is. Right wing religious hypocrite, misogynist, racist, fascist, dominionist, christian reconstructionist, authoritarian. pence's goal is to be dictator of a theocratic plutocracy. From Last Week with John Oliver and the Washington Post.....
Mike Pence: Last Week Tonight with John Oliver (HBO)
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THE BIG IDEA: Tuesday was one of the worst days of President Trump’s 19 months in power. It might also be a harbinger of worse days ahead.
Michael Cohen used to say he’d take a bullet for Trump, but the fixer was in a fix. Told by prosecutors that he could face a dozen years in prison, the president’s longtime attorney pleaded guilty to eight crimes in a Manhattan courtroom: five counts of tax evasion, one count of making a false statement to a bank and two campaign finance violations. Cohen admitted to arranging to pay off two women in 2016, so they’d stay silent about their alleged affairs with Trump, and said he did so “in coordination with and at the direction of” the then-candidate. “I participated in this conduct,” he said, “for the principal purpose of influencing the election.”
Paul Manafort was found guilty almost simultaneously in Alexandria, Va., on eight of 18 tax and bank-fraud charges. The former Trump campaign chairman will face a second trial in the District on separate charges starting in mid-September, including conspiracy to defraud the United States, failing to register as a foreign agent, money laundering and witness tampering. Special counsel Bob Mueller also has until next Wednesday to decide whether to retry Manafort in Virginia on the 10 charges that the jury deadlocked on.
-- Putting aside the political nightmare, Trump himself is unlikely to get indicted. “Under long-standing legal interpretations by the Justice Department, the president cannot be charged with a crime,” Rosalind Helderman, Matt Zapotosky and Devlin Barrett report. “The department produced legal analyses in 1973 and 2000 concluding that the Constitution does not allow for the criminal indictment of a sitting president. Those opinions have never been tested in court, and doing so would require a prosecutor to buck the department’s guidance and attempt to bring charges anyway.”
-- But members of Trump’s family can be indicted, and Mueller’s tightening vice nonetheless poses tangible legal problems for the White House. “For the first time, a Trump aide has been found guilty of an offense directly related to the campaign,” notes Aaron Blake.
“The last – and only – time there was a president who was an unindicted co-conspirator in a federal indictment was Richard Nixon in 1974,” addsRichard Stengel, the former managing editor of Time Magazine.
-- This uncertainty is almost certain to linger beyond November. “Mueller will continue to move forward, at a pace of his own choosing. Justice Department guidelines probably will inhibit him from doing anything dramatic in the early fall, ahead of the midterm elections,” Dan Balz observes. Especially after James Comey’s comments on the Hillary Clinton email investigation seemed to sway the 2016 election, law enforcement leaders will probably be especially cautious about making especially big waves after Labor Day.
-- One outstanding question: What else will Cohen reveal? Lanny Davis, who defended Bill Clinton during impeachment two decades ago and joined Cohen’s legal team earlier this summer, has been making the rounds on television last night and this morning to say that his client still has knowledge that will be “of interest” to Mueller and is “more than happy to tell the special counsel all that he knows.”
Davis hinted that Cohen will talk with prosecutors about Trump’s participation in a “criminal conspiracy” to hack into the emails of Democratic officials during the 2016 election. He told Rachel Maddow on MSNBC last night that Cohen had “knowledge about the computer crime of hacking and whether or not Mr. Trump knew ahead of time about that crime and even cheered it on.”
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-- The Cohen deal was negotiated by the Southern District of New York, not Mueller’s team. “The case against him stems in part from work done by Mueller’s team, which examined Cohen’s role in at least two episodes involving Russian interests,” per Devlin, Carol Leonnig, Philip Bump and Renae Merle. “However, special-counsel investigators have indicated to federal law enforcement officials that the office does not require Cohen’s cooperation for its inquiry, according to two people familiar with their work.”
-- Court filings show that Cohen faces a recommended prison sentence of 46 to 63 months, which is around four to five years. As part of the plea deal, he also agreed to pay $1.5 million to the IRS. He was released on bail last night until his sentencing, which is not scheduled until Dec. 12.
-- Many legal analysts speculated that a deal might have been reached which is not disclosed in court documents. From the New Yorker’s legal correspondent:
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A constitutional law professor at Harvard who taught, among others, John Roberts and Elena Kagan:
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-- Trump himself had this to say on Twitter:
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-- The Republican and Democratic leaders of the Senate Intelligence Committee announced last night that they “recently reengaged” with Cohen after he said Trump knew beforehand about the June 2016 Trump Tower meeting that his son Don Jr., son-in-law Jared Kushner and Manafort had with a representative of Russia. Sen. Richard Burr (R-N.C.) suggested that this contradicted Cohen’s closed-door testimony before the committee from last September.
-- Stormy Daniels, one of the women Cohen acknowledged paying off, continues her legal maneuvers to get out of the nondisclosure agreement she signed in 2016. “Buckle Up Buttercup,” Michael Avenatti, the lawyer for Daniels, tweeted at Trump lawyer Rudy Giuliani. “You and your client completely misplayed this.”
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-- Making a bad day worse for Republicans, a grand jury in San Diego agreed last night to indict Rep. Duncan Hunter (R-Calif.) and his wife, Margaret, for allegedly misusing more than a quarter of a million bucks in campaign funds for personal purposes. The 47-page indictment, which is worth reading in full, portrays the couple as living beyond their means on campaign-issued credit cards. His wife was paid a salary of $117,000 from the campaign account for “work” between 2010 and 2017.
They will be arraigned on Thursday. The congressman’s dad, Duncan Hunter Sr., is telling local news outlets that his son and daughter-in-law plan to fight the rap. That would mean a dramatic public trial.
“What’s perhaps most galling in the indictment is how the Hunters are alleged to have covered up their purchase: often, by claiming it was for charity, like veteran’s organizations,” Amber Phillips notes. “Margaret Hunter allegedly spent $200 on tennis shoes at Dick’s Sporting Goods, which she then claimed as for an annual dove hunting event for wounded warriors. When Hunter told his wife he needed to ‘buy my Hawaii shorts,’ but he was out of money, she allegedly told him to buy them from a golf pro shop so he could claim they were actually golf balls for wounded warriors. … Margaret Hunter allegedly spent $152 on makeup at Nordstrom and told the campaign it was ‘gift basket items for the Boys and Girls Clubs of San Diego.’ … They allegedly described the payment of their family dental bills as a charitable contribution to ‘Smiles For Life.’ … In an attempt to justify spending campaign funds on a family trip to Italy, Hunter asked the Naval base for a tour. When they said they couldn’t do it then, Hunter said ‘tell the Navy to go f*** themselves.’”
Remember Randy “Duke” Cunningham? He also represented the San Diego area in Congress, and his conviction on corruption charges helped Democrats win the House in 2006. He famously had a “menu” that outlined bribes defense contractors could pay for him to take official actions on their behalf.
Hunter, who inherited this seat from his dad, represents a solidly red district, but now his race for reelection is, at best, a toss-up. It’s too late to take his name off the ballot, so the national GOP – much to their chagrin – is stuck with him. (Speaker Paul Ryan said last night that he will strip Hunter of his committee assignments.)
-- Democrats look increasingly well positioned to pick up the 23 seats they need to win control of the House. If they do, putting the possibility of impeachment aside, they will have subpoena power and can schedule hearings to investigate potential misdeeds of the president.
Michael Cohen joins Donald Trump, Mike Pence, Omarosa Manigault Newman and boxing promoter Don King during a September 2016 campaign stop at a church in Cleveland Heights, Ohio. (Jonathan Ernst/Reuters)
-- Hunter was the second member of Congress to endorse Trump. He followed Rep. Chris Collins (R-N.Y.) by just a few hours in February 2016. Collins was indicted two weeks ago on insider trading charges.He ended his reelection bid under pressure from Trump allies and GOP leaders who feared a messy distraction, even as he continues to proclaim his innocence.
-- Trivia for the water cooler: The third lawmaker to endorse Trump was then-Sen. Jeff Sessions (R-Ala.). He is now the attorney general.
-- The swirling drama raises new questions about Trump’s judgment. He routinely boasts that he hires only “the best people.” Just last week, however, the president called Omarosa Manigault Newman – someone he hired as a senior official in the White House over the objection of other aides – a “dog” after she published an unflattering tell-all about him. His chief economic adviser is under fire today for inviting a prominent white nationalist to a birthday party at his home over the weekend. A White House speechwriter was pushed out last week for appearing on a panel in 2016 with the same white nationalist.
Rick Gates, who was deputy campaign chairman under Manafort and stuck around as a top advisor to Trump during the transition, pleaded guilty to conspiracy and making false statements. He testified against Manafort and continues to cooperate with Mueller for a more lenient sentence.
-- While Trump has sought to minimize role that Gates and Manafort played on his campaign, the former chairman and his aide have had an enduring impact. For example, Manafort played a critical role in persuading Trump to pick Mike Pence as his running mate over Chris Christie and Newt Gingrich. If Manafort had not been running the campaign during that fateful summer, Pence might not be vice president today.
-- Another coming attraction: Mueller’s team quietly moved yesterday to postpone Michael Flynn’s sentencing hearing for the fourth time. The delay is the latest sign that Trump’s former national security adviser continues to cooperate with the special counsel after pleading guilty to making false statements to the FBI about his contacts with the Russians. “Due to the status of its investigation, the Special Counsel’s Office does not believe that this matter is ready to be scheduled for a sentencing hearing at this time,” the two parties said in a joint status report on Tuesday.
“The court asked for an update on a sentencing timeline for Flynn by Aug. 24, but the parties asked for that date to be pushed back to Sept. 17,” Politico’s Caitlin Oprysko reports. “On Tuesday evening, U.S. District Court Judge Emmet Sullivan accepted the request from Mueller and defense attorneys to file their joint status report by that (Sept. 17) date.”
-- That’s a timely reminder that Mueller still knows so much more than we do. And he keeps digging.
From the executive editor of Bloomberg Opinion:
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-- All these guilty pleas make it less politically tenable for Trump to shut down the Mueller investigation. That doesn’t mean that Trump won’t try. But it will be harder for his allies to back him up.
-- Trump also has to worry that Manafort might still try to cut a deal to get a more lenient sentence. “His possible prison sentence wasn’t immediately clear, but legal experts said he is likely to face about seven to 10 years in prison under federal sentencing guidelines,” Matt, Lynh Bui, Tom Jackman and Devlin report. “Now that he’s seen how this goes, maybe he is now more likely to want to consider working out a plea deal,” said Barbara McQuade, a former U.S. attorney who observed much of the trial.
-- “Several advisers to Trump had already begun discussing how to use a not-guilty verdict regarding Manafort against the Mueller probe. Now, the challenge will be trying to discredit Cohen, two advisers said,” per Josh Dawsey and Phil Rucker. “For months, aides and advisers to Trump said that Cohen could be the biggest challenge to him. Trump told people that Cohen was not ‘smart or loyal’ and that he wanted to destroy him, said a former senior administration official.
- “One Trump adviser said of Cohen’s plea and the president: ‘It feels very different. This feels like everything has caught up to him. People are having conversations tonight that they weren’t having yesterday. I can promise you that.’
- “The president was angrier about the Cohen news than the Manafort verdict, two officials said. ‘He was unhappy and exasperated,’ an official said.”
-- Trump also has not ruled out pardoning Manafort. “Paul Manafort’s a good man,” the president told reporters when he landed on Air Force One in West Virginia last night for a rally. He emphasized that the verdict “doesn’t involve me, but I still feel, you know, it’s a very sad thing that happened.”
He tweeted this morning:
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During his speech last night to a raucous crowd in Charleston, the president didn’t mention Cohen or Manafort. But he did attack the Mueller investigation. “Fake news and the Russian witch hunt. We’ve got a whole big combination,” Trump said. “Where is the collusion? You know, they’re still looking for collusion. Where is the collusion? Find some collusion!”
You can’t make it up: Supporters chanted “Lock her up” about Hillary Clinton as Trump spoke.
-- Because Trump probably cannot be indicted while in office, whether the president will face formal consequences for allegedly directing one of his subordinates to commit a federal crime is ultimately up to Congress. “Powerful Republican lawmakers have seemed more interested in covering for Mr. Trump than investigating him,” the Washington Post Editorial Board notes. “Tuesday’s events must bring that partisan abdication of public duty to an end. Congress must open investigations into Mr. Trump’s role in the crime Mr. Cohen has admitted to. It is far too soon to say where such inquiries would lead. But legislators cannot in good conscience ignore an alleged co-conspirator in the White House.”
“Anytime your lawyer is convicted of anything it’s probably not a good day,” said Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.). “It’s important to let this process continue without interference. I hope Mr. Mueller can conclude his investigation sooner rather than later for the benefit of the nation.”
“Paul Manafort is a founding member of the DC swamp and Michael Cohen is the Gotham version of the same,” emailed Sen. Ben Sasse (R-Neb.). “Neither one of these felons should have been anywhere near the presidency.”
Both sit on the Senate Judiciary Committee, which has jurisdiction over these matters. So does Sen. Dick Blumenthal (D), a longtime former attorney general of Connecticut. "We're in a Watergate moment,” he said on CNN. “We need bipartisanship now more than ever to protect the special counsel and to stop, and I must underscore stop, any consideration of pardons.”
-- At the very least, the Cohen plea deal has also offered a fresh window into how Trump does business. Court filings show that the president’s real estate business paid $420,000 to Cohen after he submitted “sham” invoices to conceal the true purpose of the payments to the adult actresses. “Trump executives decided Cohen should be paid more than he sought — an additional $360,000 for expenses and other fees and taxes, plus a $60,000 bonus, prosecutors said,” per Carol and Michelle Ye Hee Lee.
In light of this, Trump withholding his tax returns seems like an even bigger deal now than it did 24 hours ago. He is the first president since Richard Nixon to do so.
HOW IT’S PLAYING:
-- The Atlantic’s Frank Foer: “Blind Confidence Couldn’t Save Paul Manafort … But it’s not too late for him to cut a deal.”
-- Karen Tumulty: “Nope, not a witch hunt.”
-- Jennifer Rubin: “Trump’s greatest fear comes true.”
-- Associated Press: “Timeline: From ‘nothing to see here’ to Cohen’s guilty pleas.”
-- Reuters: “Jolted by ex-allies' criminal cases, Trump faces election andlegal risks.”
-- The Guardian’s Richard Wolffe: “Trump's reckoning has arrived.”
-- New Republic: “The Worst Day Yet of Trump’s Presidency.”
-- New York Times: “Cohen’s Drink on Eve of Guilty Plea: Glenlivet on the Rocks.”
-- The New Yorker: “Cohen Says That [Trump] Directed His Crimes.”
-- New York magazine’s Jonathan Chait: “‘Law and Order’ Candidate Donald Trump Is Surrounded By Criminals.”
-- Vox: “Cohen’s guilty plea implicates Trump in federal crime. Republicans don’t care.”
-- Trump biographer Michael D'Antonio for CNN: “The swamp slime is oozing toward Trump.”
-- Wall Street Journal D.C. editor Jerry Seib: “Cohen Deals a Blow to His Former Boss.”
-- Politico: “Legal blows fuel impeachment fears.”
-- Obama’s former White House counsel Bob Bauer for Lawfare: “Cohen Plea Agreement: Possible Meanings of the Campaign Finance Counts.”
-- Yahoo Finance’s Rick Newman: “Why the Manafort verdict should worry Trump.”
-- New York Daily News: “Cohen admits that he and [Trump] colluded with National Enquirer publisher to keep Stormy Daniels tryst quiet before the election.”
-- NBC News: “In case of Mueller firing, break glass: Democrats prep an emergency plan.”
