Fresh off a
landslide reelection victory last week, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (R)
is set to take the reins of
the Republican Governors Association. This much we know: Christie will
inherit a landscape in which he will have his work cut out for him.
(Mel Evans/AP)
Democrats and Republicans split the 2013 gubernatorial races, with
Democrat Terry McAuliffe winning in Virginia, and Christie dancing to
victory in New Jersey. Now it’s on to 2014, where Republicans are
playing a lot of defense.
The GOP is defending 22 seats, compared to just 14 for Democrats.
More than half the seats on our list below are controlled by the GOP,
including six of the top eight races most likely to flip party control
and three of the top four.
Now, to our rundown of the 15 seats most likely to change party
control. As always, No. 1 is most likely to flip. Since Virginia is
history, several contests move up the list, making room for a new
addition: Kansas, which debuts this cycle at No. 15.
To the Line!
15. Kansas (Republican-controlled): This dark red
state’s debut on our list will surprise many – especially given the
state hasn’t elected a Democratic senator since the 1930s. (Democratic
governors are more common.) But it’s hard to ignore polls that show Gov.
Sam Brownback’s (R)
approval rating well shy of 50 percent,
and Democrats feel good about their recruit, state Rep. Paul Davis.
This one’s worth keeping an eye on, at the very least. (Previous
ranking: N/A)
14. Minnesota (Democratic-controlled): Hennepin
County Commissioner Jeff Johnson solidified his status as the
front-runner for the state Republican Party’s endorsement last month at
the state party convention. Johnson took 35 percent of the vote in a
straw poll, besting state Sen. Dave Thompson at 27 percent. Nobody else
was in double digits. Gov. Mark Dayton’s (D) approval rating continues
to hover around 50 percent. (Previous ranking: 15)
13. Massachusetts (D): Republicans
are seeking to draw attention
to questions about Democratic Attorney General Martha Coakley’s
campaign finance practices dating back to her 2010 Senate bid. Coakley
looks like the candidate to beat, which explains the attention she is
getting from the GOP. (Previous ranking: 14)
12. Arizona (R): Gov. Jan Brewer (R) STILL
hasn’t made clear
whether she will challenge the state’s term-limits law, but her lengthy
decision-making process has already led other Republicans to get into
the race. Most formidable among them: Secretary of State Ken Bennett,
who got in last month. The leading Democratic candidate is former
Clinton administration official Fred DuVal, but this is a tough one for
Democrats. (Previous ranking: 13)
11. Connecticut (D): Republican front-runner Tom Foley took a page out of Texas Gov. Rick Perry’s (R) book this week when he started
running an ad urging disillusioned New Yorkers to come to Connecticut,
where he promises a new direction when he’s governor. Before Foley gets
a rematch with less-than-popular Gov. Dan Malloy (D), though, he’s got
to beat state Senate President John McKinney and Danbury Mayor Mark
Boughton in a primary. (Previous ranking: 11)
10. Wisconsin (R): A recent
Marquette Law School poll
showed Gov. Scott Walker (R) running neck-and-neck against Democrat
Mary Burke. Burke is largely undefined, the poll showed. What happens
once Republicans start to seriously take on that task will determine
whether this can become one of the cycle’s most competitive contests, or
whether it will remain a second tier race. For now, though, Democrats
like what they see. (Previous ranking: 12)
9. Colorado (D): You would be hard-pressed to find a
non-scandal plagued pol who’s had a worse year than Gov. John
Hickenlooper (D). The gun-control bill he signed
cost two Democratic state senators their jobs, the tax increase he championed
was rejected, and his polling numbers
have declined. If the Republican field was more impressive, Colorado would be higher up on this list. (Previous ranking: 10)
8. Ohio (R): Gov. John Kasich (R) got some
bipartisan love from President Obama on Thursday when Obama, speaking in
Cleveland, praised Kasich for accepting the Medicaid expansion
contained in Obamacare – something some other GOP governors have
declined. Kasich’s likely Democratic opponent, Cuyahoga County Executive
Ed FitzGerald got a shout-out, too, of course. Kasich continues to have
pretty good approval ratings and is favored in this swing state.
(Previous ranking: 9)
7. South Carolina (R): A
poll conducted for the Democratic Governors Association
showed Gov. Nikki Haley (R) ahead by four points, while a poll a week
later from GOP automated pollster Harper Polling showed her up nine.
Democrats are certainly underdogs here, but most polls show Haley’s
approval rating in dangerous territory – the low 40s. The likely
Democratic nominee in South Carolina is state Sen. Vincent Sheheen.
(Previous ranking: 8)
6. Michigan (R): Here’s a race in which the battles
lines are drawn. Democrats will seek to paint Gov. Rick Snyder (R) as a
far-right Republican whose agenda is out of step with the state. Snyder,
as evidenced by his first ad, is looking to reprise the “one tough
nerd,” technocratic message that got him elected in the first place.
Democrats like former congressman Mark Schauer, but a key question is
whether Schauer has the fundraising chops to keep up with Snyder in the
long run. (Previous ranking: 7)
5. Illinois (D): Thanks to Republican Bruce Rauner
pouring in $500,000 more into his campaign coffers, his opponents will
be able to raise funds in unlimited sums,
due to a state campaign finance law.
The Republican race remains up in the air, while Gov. Pat Quinn (D),
lousy as his polling numbers are, is set to coast to the Democratic
nomination. Quinn is proving to be the political survivor of the cycle
so far, but it’s an open question whether his outlook will change come
the general election. (Previous ranking: 6)
4. Arkansas (D): Former GOP congressman Asa Hutchinson’s
fundraising woes continued
in the third quarter. He pulled in under $400,000 while former
congressman Mike Ross (D) raised more than $1 million. The political
lean of Arkansas makes it fertile territory for a GOP pickup, but
Democrats are staying competitive thanks to Ross, who might be the
party’s most valuable gubernatorial recruit of the cycle. (Previous
ranking: 4)
3. Florida (R): Former governor Charlie Crist
finally got into the race as a Democrat, setting up a presumptive
matchup with Gov. Rick Scott (R). Scott’s numbers have long been subpar,
but the question is how well Crist can run as a Democrat.
Multiple polls
now have shown Crist leading Scott by double digits, but we imagine
this will be quite an interesting race. Of the three most vulnerable
governors next year (all Republicans), Scott clearly has the best chance
of survival. (Previous ranking: 3)
2. Maine (R): There is no governor like Paul LePage
(R). It seems every month, he says something controversial that would
make huge news if he came from a bigger state. And if LePage were in a
two-candidate matchup, he’d likely be done for. But he’s got a
three-candidate field, and a new poll shows him in a statistical tie
with Rep. Mike Michaud (D),
trailing 38-36. Michaud, as it happens,
recently announced that he is gay. He would become the first openly gay person elected governor. (Previous ranking: 2)
1. Pennsylvania (R): Gov. Tom Corbett (R)
officially launched
his reelection bid last week. He begins his campaign as the most
vulnerable governor in the country. Saddled with lousy polling numbers,
Corbett’s challenge isn’t just about convincing Democrats and moderates
to change their minds about him. Republicans, too, have demonstrated
skepticism about the governor. In the contested Democratic primary, U.S.
Rep. Allyson Schwartz is the early front-runner. (Previous ranking: 1)
