JUST interesting reading for us political junkies, but to be honest I really want tom corbett voted out of the governors mansion in Harrisburg. He has his head so far up corporate America's collective ass he needs a snorkel to breath, and there are lingering questions about the Penn State child molestation investigation when he was the Commonwealth's A.G. From the +Washington Post .....
The top 13 governor’s races of 2014
Over the past 30 years, only 34 incumbent governors have lost in the general election. That's about one per year or about two for every two-year election cycle.
The
2014 election looks to be much different. And in fact, we could very
well see more incumbent governors lose this year than in any year since
at least 1984. All it would take is for seven of them to lose.
Here's how that looks, over time (courtesy of Philip Bump):
So
will seven actually lose? Well, on our ratings below and in public
polls, we've got four or five incumbents looking like underdogs
— Corbett in Pennsylvania, LePage in Maine, Malloy in Connecticut and
Brownback in Kansas. Some might even include Illinois Gov. Pat Quinn (D)
on that list, though he has recovered somewhat in the polls.
From
there, incumbent governors in Florida, Colorado, Michigan and Wisconsin
are in what appear to be toss-ups (or pretty close).
Even
if half of those four toss-ups went the direction of the challenger, as
of now that would probably mean seven incumbent governors lost on Nov. 4
— a new record.
Of course, we're still a month from
that election, and there's a reason incumbents rarely lose. We'll see if
some of them can assert themselves over the next four weeks.
...
Below
is our latest ranking of the 13 governor's races most likely to change
control this year. As always, No. 1 is the most likely to flip (in this
case, it will flip), while No. 13 is the least likely — but
still quite competitive, given there are many more races across the
country that didn't make our list.
To the line!
Off the line: Arizona
13. Alaska (Republican-controlled): This race was Greg Orman before Greg Orman. As in the Kansas Senate race, the Democrat here dropped out of the race,
giving the independent a better shot to beat the Republican incumbent.
In this case, though, the Democrat became the independent's running
mate. The result: Two robopolls this month
show the independent, Bill Walker, leading Gov. Sean Parnell (R) by
four and five points. Robopolls, yes. But still. (Previous ranking: N/A)
12. Massachusetts (Democratic-controlled): It's happening again. Two recent polls
show a very close race between Democrat Martha Coakley and Republican
Charlie Baker. Coakley's fundraising woes have required the
congressional delegation to get involved. It's not time to panic yet for Democrats, but things aren't looking good right now. (Previous ranking: N/A)
11. Georgia (R):
Would you have believed a year ago that Republicans would be in better
shape in Georgia's open Senate race than in the governor's race? Gov.
Nathan Deal (R) is running neck and neck with Democrat Jason Carter, polls show. If there's to be a Democratic upset in the Peach State this year, the smart money is on this race. (Previous ranking: 11)
10. Wisconsin (R): Gov. Scott Walker (R), after a summer of close polls, has opened up an edge over businesswoman Mary Burke (D) in the latest Marquette Law School survey.
This is a deeply polarized electorate, and both sides are focused on
turning out every person in their bases — as well as bringing in
political celebrities to do it. Just this week, Chris Christie and Michelle Obama were in the state on the same day.
Of course, the implications here are big for the 2016 presidential race
— and Walker's potential presence as a candidate or VP pick. (Previous
ranking: 9)
9. Colorado (D): A Quinnipiac
University poll a couple weeks back showed Republican Bob Beauprez
leading Gov. John Hickenlooper (D) by 10 points (!), but three other
recent polls show Hickenlooper leading within the margin of error.
That's called polling whiplash. What we do know: This is competitive.
(Previous ranking: 10)
8. Michigan (R): Republican Gov. Rick Snyder (R) has rarely trailed in the polls, but this is Michigan, and Republicans have seen the football yanked away from their foot before. Snyder, meanwhile, is accusing Democrats of "lying" about his record on education spending. Rest assured: This will be one of the most heated campaigns down the stretch. (Previous ranking: 8)
7. Florida (R): The post-Labor Day movement in polls has been in former governor Charlie Crist's (D) direction. As FiveThirtyEight has pointed out, the matchup between Crist and Gov. Rick Scott (R) is really a race to the bottom —
with neither man at all well liked by the state's voters. Who wins
matters a lot come 2016, since Florida will be a contested state in the
primary and general election for both parties. (Previous ranking: 7)
6. Illinois (D): If Gov. Pat Quinn (D) somehow wins reelection, he will be the survival story of 2014. The Democrat got some fundraising help
this week from President Obama. GOP businessman Bruce Rauner's wealth
is getting the Romney treatment from Democrats, and polls suggest that
Quinn has recovered somewhat. The question is whether someone as
unpopular as Quinn can still win. (Previous ranking: 5)
5. Kansas (R): Pat
Roberts is getting all the attention these days, but Gov. Sam Brownback
(R) was the original under-performing Kansas Republican. A Suffolk University poll
this week shows him trailing Democrat Paul Davis by six points — one
more than Roberts's deficit. If we had to pick one of the two that was
more likely to lose, it would be Brownback. His problems are much more ingrained. (Previous ranking: 5)
4. Connecticut (D):
This is a blue state, and Gov. Dan Malloy (D) has the advantage of
incumbency, but make no mistake: This race is at real risk of flipping
to Republicans. GOP nominee Tom Foley — whom Malloy narrowly defeated in
2010 — is leading in some recent polls. Outside money is pouring in from both labor unions and the Republican Governors Association. (Previous ranking: 4)
3. Maine (R): Okay,
so Gov. Paul LePage (R) has hung tough in polling, even as many folks
(The Fix included) didn't really expect him to. Good for him. But we're
getting to the point in the campaign in which people realize that the
independent, Eliot Cutler, who is polling in the double digits, doesn't
really have a chance to win. History shows that's when the independent's
voters start to migrate to one of the other candidates. We think that favors Rep. Mike Michaud (D), but who knows at this point? (Previous ranking: 3)
2. Arkansas (D):
Democrats had high hopes for this open seat when they landed their top
recruit in former congressman Mike Ross. But the conservative lean of
the state looks like it will be too much for Ross, as virtually every
poll released in the past six weeks gives former congressman Asa Hutchinson (R) a clear edge. (Previous ranking: 2)
1. Pennsylvania (R):
The only question is how many points businessman Tom Wolf (D) is going
to beat Gov. Tom Corbett (R) by in 32 days. (Previous ranking: 1)
Aaron Blake covers national politics and writes regularly for The Fix.
Chris Cillizza writes “The Fix,” a politics blog for the Washington Post. He also covers the White House.
Sean Sullivan has covered national politics for The Washington Post since 2012.
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