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Showing posts with label Jacksonville Jaguars. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Jacksonville Jaguars. Show all posts

12 January 2026

BUFFALO BILLS DEFEAT JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS IN JACKSONVILLE 27 - 24!!! & Bills-Jaguars on Wild Card Weekend Sunday: What We Learned from Buffalo's 27-24 win 11JAN26



IN spite of the majority of the talking heads picking the Jaguars to win and typically biased officiating the Buffalo Bills defeated them in Jacksonville! The Bills play the Denver Broncos in Denver on Saturday 17JAN26.

'Game over' | The Bills share their appreciation for regular season adversity and each other after Wild Card win



Buffalo beat Jacksonville on the road on Sunday, 27-24. This marked the Bills' first road playoff win in 32 years and snapped Jacksonville's eight-game win streak.

Regular season adversity prepared Buffalo for Jacksonville

The Bills faced injury after injury in the 2025 regular season, but found ways to win. That "next man up" mentality drove Buffalo to a 12-5 record, and eventually a Wild Card win over the Jaguars.

"It builds character," head coach Sean McDermott said. "You go into every season and you're hoping and praying that there's no adversity. But we've all been around this long enough to know that there's going to be adversity, it's just a matter of what form it comes in and how big it is. And we've really been dealing with it quite a bit this year."

On Sunday, the Bills were without captain and linebacker Terrel Bernard. Veteran linebacker Shaq Thompson was prepared to step into that role, having done so before during the season. Thompson led the team in tackles with eight. He also had a pass defensed and an early interception. That interception allowed Buffalo to get on the board first, putting up three points and the only score of the first quarter.

During the game, wide receiver Gabe Davis and safety Jordan Poyer sustained injuries that ruled them out. Rookie safety Jordan Hancock stepped into Poyer's role and the wide receiver depth that was contained for most of the season ended up being the driving force on offense.


The team also adjusted to finding different ways to win games throughout the season. Even with the top rushing offense in the league, the Bills couldn't solely rely on running back James Cook III to win games.

Sunday was no different. Cook had just 46 yards on 15 carries. In total, Buffalo only accumulated 79 yards on the ground with quarterback Josh Allen picking up 33. In the pass game, though, Allen finished with an 80 percent completion rate on 28-of-35 passes for 273 yards and one touchdown. Wide receiver Khalil Shakir caught all 12 passes that came his way for 82 yards.

McDermott emphasized the importance of a two-dimensional offense in his postgame press conference.

Up against the top run defense in the NFL, Allen took what the Jaguars gave him. The run game couldn't spark, but that didn't mean he couldn't find ways to win battles himself or target his receivers and tight ends to get the job done.

"We made the plays that we needed to make when we needed to make them," McDermott said.


Buffalo also had a series of comeback wins. Though it had the lead for a majority of the game, only giving it up just over halfway through the fourth quarter, the Bills' regular season proved that they know how to win no matter how far behind they're trailing or how close the games end up.

There were four lead changes in the fourth quarter against the Jaguars, all of which Buffalo had to overcome with trips to the end zone as it fell behind by four points each time Jacksonville went up.

"To have the wherewithal to not blink," Allen said. "That's just the mantra that we've adapted to this year."

Bills share their love for veteran cornerback

Safety Cole Bishop came up with the game-sealing interception, but it was cornerback Tre'Davious White that made that possible. White tipped the ball, allowing Bishop – who was in the right place at the right time – to get his hands underneath it.

"'Game over. Game over,'" White recalled was running through his head when Bishop came down with the ball. "'Get down. Get down. Don't try to run it back for a touchdown. Get down so we just go onto the next game.'"

Even though he's the one that was credited with the pick, Bishop knew it wasn't a one-man effort.

"He was making plays out there," Bishop said of White. "I'm super grateful for him. And then him tipping that ball was huge … I know I'm getting a lot of the credit for that interception, but he made the play.

"It means a lot … I'm sure [White's] had a lot of doubters this past year, and being able to come make a play in the biggest game this season and the biggest moment was huge."


White ended the game with three passes defensed and two tackles. Aside from the last play, White forced two incompletions in the third quarter, making Jacksonville settle for a field goal and allowing the Bills to stay in the lead by three.

His effort wasn't overlooked by anyone on the team, not only Bishop.

"A guy that's been under a lot of scrutiny the last couple of years," Allen said of White. "To get him back and to get him back in a Bills' uniform and making plays for us when we need it the most [means a lot]."

"[White] left it all on the field. Tre White is back man … I'm so glad [White] is here. I'm glad that he's feeling good, I'm glad that he's motivated, I'm glad that he has his confidence back," left tackle Dion Dawkins said. "Guys love on each other positively and [White's] playing free."

"In [White's] fashion, there's nobody that works harder, and he's gotten himself back now to where he is," McDermott said of the cornerback's NFL journey. "He's playing really good football and credit to him and the work that he's put in … He's just as good as anyone there is in terms of his determination, his heart and his really resilient nature."


Going for the touchdown at the end of the game

On Buffalo's last possession of the game, Allen and the offense drove forward on fourth-and-inches and ultimately picked up 10 yards. One yard away from the end zone with just over a minute left, the Jaguars used their final timeout to avoid a 10-second runoff, and the Bills had a decision to make.

Going for the touchdown meant quarterback Trevor Lawrence had enough time to get Jacksonville into field goal range. Taking a knee and running down the clock, on the other hand, gave the Jaguars extra breathing room to make a goal-line stop and win the game.

"You can sit there, you can say, 'Hey, let's take a knee.' You lose some yards and you don't score there," Allen said. "Now you're kicking yourself for not scoring earlier … we did what we thought was right, and it turned out to be."


Looking back on the decision, McDermott and the players are pleased with the choice to go for the touchdown on first-and-goal, leaving Jacksonville with 59 seconds on the clock to try and either tie or win the game.

"From a game management standpoint … they have a phenomenal field goal kicker," McDermott said. "We knew that it was going to be tight. We practice those situations, though, when you only can really give up x-amount of yards … Players [on defense] executed. That's what it really came down to."


 

Bills-Jaguars on Wild Card Weekend Sunday: What We Learned from Buffalo's 27-24 win


FULL BOX SCORE



  1. Allen leads Bills to comeback road playoff win. Battered, bruised, knocked around, Josh Allen still answered the bell in the clutch. The reigning NFL MVP came in with a foot issue, and before the first half was over was checked for a concussion, injured his hand on a throw and had his knee twisted on a touchdown run. Nothing slowed the Bills' Superman. Allen played a nearly perfect game, spraying passes all over the field. He completed 28 of 35 passes (80%) for 273 yards, 7.8 yards per attempt, with a touchdown for a 108.7 passer rating. The beast also added 11 carries for 33 yards and two rushing scores. With a questionable receiver corps, Allen fit the ball in tight windows with extreme accuracy. If not for a couple of dropped passes, his numbers would be even more impressive. In a wild fourth quarter, Allen was the best player on the field. Leading his first career postseason game-winning drive, the QB was magnificent. With a free-rusher in his face, Allen laid a ball perfectly to Brandin Cooks for 36 yards to put the Bills in charge of the final two minutes. With James Cook and the running game stuffed, Buffalo needed MVP Allen to carry the load. He delivered.
  2. Lawrence, Jags come up shy. Jacksonville stampeded over the Bills on the ground, gobbling up 154 rushing yards on 23 carries, for a 6.7 average. For stretches, the Jags' rushing attack was unstoppable, particularly on outside runs, where they generated 119 yards. Travis Etienne (10 carries for 67 yards) and Bhayshul Tuten (4/51) gashed Buffalo’s wobbly run D. Liam Coen might regret getting away from the run game at times. Trevor Lawrence experienced an up-and-down day against an excellent Bills pass D, completing 18 of 30 for 207 yards with two touchdowns. However, his two interceptions cost the Jags dearly. The first came in his own end on a misread that he threw directly to linebacker Shaq Thompson, allowing Buffalo to take an early lead. Lawrence bounced back, helping the Jags gobble up 359 total yards and making several clutch throws. However, with a chance to answer in the final minute, Lawrence was again intercepted to seal the loss. The turnovers will sting as Jacksonville’s magical run, which included winning the AFC South title, came screeching to a halt.
  3. Bills D comes up with key turnovers. Sean McDermott’s defense might not be the stingiest, but it came up with massive plays to help Buffalo into the Divisional Round. Buffalo’s run defense remains leaky, allowing Jacksonville’s top two backs to average 8.4 yards per carry and keep Josh Allen off the field for stretches. However, the pass defense remains stellar. The Bills came up with two INTs and a pivotal turnover on downs in the second quarter. Gregory Rousseau provided some pop up front with five QB pressures and a sack, and the secondary stepped up. Veteran Tre'Davious White had a turn-back-the-clock performance. The cornerback allowed just one catch for 3 yards on four targets with three pass breakups. White’s biggest play silenced the Jags. On the first snap after the Bills took the lead, the sage defender blanketed Jakobi Meyers, forcing a tight window throw over the middle. White tipped the pass and the ball fell into safety Cole Bishop’s lap. Ball game.
  4. Washington thrives in spotlight. The Jaguars offense, particularly the passing attack, was slow early. With Parker Washington getting checked for a concussion, the Jags pass attack couldn’t do much through two quarters. Then the dangerous slot returned. He jump-started the Jags' aerial attack, catching seven passes for 107 yards and a TD. Washington generated two catches of 30-plus yards (34 and 31) and gave the Bills' secondary fits over the middle, recording four receptions for 75 yards and a touchdown on seven targets in the area. Washington was targeted on 50.0% of his routes run, the highest target rate of his career, per Next Gen Stats. His importance to the Jags offense moving into 2026 is evident.
  5. Bills get first road playoff win since 1992 to march to Divisional Round. Sunday’s win should silence the questions about Sean McDermott’s future in Buffalo. The Bills came in wallowing on the road in the postseason, not winning a travel playoff game since the George H.W. Bush administration. At times, it looked like Buffalo would add to that futility, with the defense allowing scores on three straight Jags drives to open the second half. However, with Josh Allen’s heroics and the game-sealing INT from Cole Bishop, the top playmakers stepped up. In a game with four fourth-quarter lead changes, Buffalo once again proved it has the mettle to play tight tilts as it marches into the Divisional Round.


Next Gen Stats Insight for Bills-Jaguars (via NFL Pro): Josh Allen excelled under pressure in the playoff win against the Jaguars, finishing 9 for 12 for 144 yards under duress.

NFL Research: The Bills snapped the Jaguars' eight-game winning streak with their wild-card win. That is the fourth opponent eight-plus-game win streak that the Bills have snapped since the start of the 2024 season, making them the first team in NFL history to snap that many such streaks in a two-season span.


11 January 2026

NFL playoffs: 14 teams set their sights on the Super Bowl as playoffs begin & Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars Game Predictions | AFC Wild Card 10JAN26

 


I am so proud of my Buffalo Bills making the playoffs again, and hope and pray they make it through the playoffs to the Super Bowl to win it this time. Here is an interview I heard on NPR predicting the Super Bowl will be the Buffalo Bills and the Philadelphia Eagles....

The NFL playoffs start Saturday as 14 teams look to make Super Bowl LX {60} next month in Santa Clara, California. NPR's A Martinez talks to Martenzie Johnson of ESPN and Andscape about what to watch.

A MARTÍNEZ, HOST:

NFL playoffs kick off tomorrow, with really no team looking like a lock to make their way to Santa Clara, California's Super Bowl 60. Let's get into it with Martenzie Johnson of ESPN and Andscape. So, Martenzie, I mean, what are you looking at in this playoffs, which, to me, looks wide open for the first time in a while?

MARTENZIE JOHNSON: Yeah. Honestly, A, if you're a fan of parity in the NFL, this is the NFL playoffs for you because, as you said, it's wide open this year. And it's because of one reason, A, and one reason only - the Kansas City Chiefs did not make the playoffs.

MARTÍNEZ: Yeah. They're the big - they've been, like, this big wall that every team has had to go through to try and, you know, win a Super Bowl and they've always seemed to, like, shut everyone down. So, like, it's weird. The team that's not in the playoffs is the team that everyone's kind of looking at.

JOHNSON: Yeah, exactly. But if you want to talk about the teams that are in the playoffs, there's two I'm looking at, specifically. Neither of which is the No.1 seed - Denver Broncos or the Seattle Seahawks. It's actually the Philadelphia Eagles, who are the defending champions. We're talking about the Chiefs, but the Eagles did win the Super Bowl last year. And on the other side, the Buffalo Bills, who, I believe, are the 6 seed.

And they've always run into that buzzsaw of either the Kansas City Chiefs or the Baltimore Ravens. But lucky enough for Josh Allen...

MARTÍNEZ: (Laughter).

JOHNSON: ...He doesn't have to worry about either of those teams this year. So this is why I think this is finally the year for the Bills. Unfortunately, for the Bills, Josh Allen has a leg injury that prevented him from playing in the last week of the season.

MARTÍNEZ: Yeah.

JOHNSON: But beyond that, I still like the Bills.

MARTÍNEZ: Yeah. And you know what? That leads right into the next thing I was going to ask you, Martenzie, because the two quarterbacks that have the most to prove are probably Josh Allen of the Bills and also Jalen Hurts of the Eagles because, like, to get into that elite tier of, like, Mahomes and Brady, Jalen Hurts has to win multiple Super Bowls. He's got one in the books. He needs another.

JOHNSON: Yeah. And Jalen, if you've watched the Eagles, then you know he hasn't looked great.

MARTÍNEZ: (Laughter).

JOHNSON: In fact, he's had two games...

MARTÍNEZ: Yeah.

JOHNSON: ...This season, A, where he didn't complete a pass in the second half. That's unheard of for the NFL where passing is a premium. That's all they want to do.

MARTÍNEZ: Yeah.

JOHNSON: But the Eagles have one of the best defenses in the league and they still have Saquon Barkley. They still have A.J. Brown. They still have DeVonta Smith. So he might have not looked good in the regular season, but I've seen Jalen Hurts in two Super Bowls playing against those same Chiefs that we're talking about and he has looked excellent. So he might not good - might not look good in the regular season, but I trust that man when it comes to the playoffs.

MARTÍNEZ: All right. So the Eagles and Bills are your two teams getting to the Super Bowl. Like, if you had to pick, like, a dark horse team, none of those two teams, some - another team that might make a run, what team would it be? Please say Chargers. Please say Chargers. Please say Chargers. Please say Chargers (laughter).

JOHNSON: I'm sorry. I'm sorry. I'm sorry, A.

MARTÍNEZ: You know how many times I've heard I'm sorry from people I've asked that question?

(CROSSTALK)

JOHNSON: And that's one of the reasons why. They don't have a offensive line. But I'm going to say the Houston Texans...

MARTÍNEZ: Oh, wow.

JOHNSON: ...Which might be a surprise to some, because if you watched the early part of the season, you saw that they started off two and four. They lost their quarterback, C.J. Stroud, for a couple games due to a concussion. But, A, out of nowhere, they won 10 of their last 11 games...

MARTÍNEZ: Yeah.

JOHNSON: ...Nine of their last games. They have one of the best defenses in the league. And their quarterback, which you want in a quarterback, A, he does not turn the ball over, in C.J. Stroud. And Nico Collins, a wide receiver, he's not a household name but he's one of the best in the NFL.

MARTÍNEZ: Yeah. And if the Texans do win that game that's against the Steelers, that could be Aaron Rodgers' last game in the NFL. I mean, he's always kind of talking about it being the last game and that might be the last one, if indeed, he loses that one. We'll see, though. That one's going to be a good one. All right. That's Martenzie Johnson from ESPN and Andscape, talking about the NFL playoffs that kick off tomorrow. Martenzie, thanks a lot.

JOHNSON: Thank you, A.

(SOUNDBITE OF MOS DEF'S "HIP HOP")

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Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars Game Predictions | AFC Wild Card


Jan 10, 2026 at 03:45 PM


The Buffalo Bills (12-5) are 1.5-point underdogs in Sunday's Wild card game against the Jacksonville Jaguars (13-4) in EverBank Stadium. The game will air on CBS at 1 pm.

Here are some additional notes for this AFC playoff battle:

  • Jacksonville has won 8 consecutive games
  • Bills have won 5 of their last 6 games
  • Bills are 0-2 in the postseason against Jacksonville
  • Jacksonville is 3-0 in the Wild Card round all-time
  • Buffalo is 5-3 on the road in 2025
  • Jacksonville is 7-2 at home in 2025
  • Buffalo has not won a road playoff game since Jan. 17, 1993 at Miami (29-10)

Jacksonville will be a tough out for the Bills in a rowdy atmosphere. The Jaguars are 4-1 S/U at home in playoff games in franchise history, and Liam Coen has done a masterful job as a rookie coach with Trevor Lawrence, who had 12 TDs and one interception in his last five starts. So why is Buffalo favored? Josh Allen can carry a playoff run even though he took a career-high 40 sacks this season. The Bills still have a running game around James Cook that will prove vital on the road, and the playoff experience matters. Allen is 0-4 S/U in road playoff games – but three of those losses were against Kansas City. That big-game experience matters – and Buffalo finds a way in the highest-scoring game of the weekend.

Pick: Bills 31, Jaguars 28

What we're hearing on the Bills: Coach Sean McDermott has never won a road playoff game in his Bills tenure (0-5). In the four games with QB Josh Allen, the Bills' defense has been the statistical difference on the road versus at home (33.5 points per game allowed on the road and 19.8 allowed at home). The team is embracing this challenge. "Being able to just have that mentality of it's you and your guys versus everybody else. We embrace that, and I mean, we're excited. We could play anywhere," DE Greg Rousseau said. -- Alaina Getzenberg

What we're hearing on the Jaguars: The headlines might be about the QBs, but this game likely will be decided on the ground: the Jaguars' top-ranked run defense versus the league's leading rusher in James Cook III. The Jaguars didn't allow a 100-yard rusher in the regular season. "It's a challenge at every level of the defense, and the running back obviously is elite," defensive coordinator Anthony Campanile said. "Cook does a tremendous job of finding cracks. You look at some of the stuff on tape, there's nowhere to go, and he pops through there." -- Mike DiRocco

Stat to know: The Jaguars have a 67.8% pass block win rate, which ranks ninth best but is by far the best for a Jaguars team with QB Trevor Lawrence under center. A part of that solution? Cole Van Lanen, who took over at LT in Week 13 and has a 92% pass block win rate, which is 22nd best at the position and an upgrade over Walker Little-- Walder

Bold prediction: Bills WR Gabe Davis, who played for the Jags in 2024, will score a touchdown in his revenge game. The Bills use Davis as a short-yardage and red zone threat because of his 6-foot-2, 225-pound frame. If they can't run the ball in and need to drop back, Davis will be Allen's preferred target. -- Solak

Matchup X factor: Bills CB Taron Johnson. His ability to get to depth in Buffalo's foundational zone coverages is key versus a Jaguars passing game that features deep in-breaking concepts. Here, Johnson can close the intermediate windows, which will limit Lawrence's explosive play ability. -- Bowen

One bet to consider: UNDER 51.5. Buffalo allows the fewest opponent plays per game and has a run-heavy offense. The Jaguars' offense is efficient but not fast. -- Maldonado

Officiating nugget: Referee Brad Allen's crew threw the fewest flags per game this season (12.9). That could help the Jaguars, who were the NFL's third-most penalized team (9.3 per game). The Bills were tied for the sixth fewest at 6.8 per game. -- Seifert

Maldonado's pick: Bills 27, Jaguars 20

Moody's pick: Jaguars 31, Bills 27

Solak's pick: Jaguars 23, Bills 21

Walder's pick: Bills 34, Jaguars 30

FPI prediction: JAX, 51.5% (by an average of 0.4 points)

Bills vs Jaguars Best bet: Jaguars +1.5 (-120)

The Buffalo Bills are small road favorites, but they really shouldn't be since the Jacksonville Jaguars enter the playoffs red-hot, going 8-0 SU and ATS in their last eight games.

The Jaguars finished the regular season with one more win than Buffalo, despite facing a tougher schedule, and are also slightly higher in the DVOA ratings.

Jacksonville is fifth in the league in defensive EPA and has been strong against both the run and pass. On the other side of the ball, Travis Etienne will churn out yards against a Bills run defense that is near the bottom of the league in every metric.

Bills vs Jaguars moneyline prediction

Since I'm taking the Jags on the small +1.5 spread, I'd also be willing to bet them on the moneyline. After all, they have the better defense and home-field advantage against a Bills squad that can't stop the run.

Score prediction: Jaguars 25, Bills 24

This one could spark serious conversations regarding whether the Bills need significant changes.

Florio's pick: Jaguars 24, Bills 21.

Simms's pick: Jaguars 34, Bills 24.

This young Jaguars team is one of the bigger surprises in the league, but they do a lot of things well. They finished as the top run defense and no back ran for over 75 yards against them during the season. That will be big against James Cook, who led the league in rushing. If they can stop Cook, that will put a lot on Josh Allen, who is more than capable. On the other side, the Bills have had defensive issues, while the Jaguars have played well on offense with Trevor Lawrence. Look for that to continue. This will be fun to watch as both quarterbacks light it up with Lawrence winning it late.

Pick: Jaguars 32, Bills 28

The Jaguars are the better all-around team. They have the hotter, more consistent quarterback in Trevor Lawrence battling Josh Allen, who has been up and down all season and struggled on the road. The Jaguars have the stout top run defense to contain James Cook, too, while Travis Etienne should find plenty of room to rumble on the Bills. Liam Coen keeps up the great season with a big win in Duval, finished off by Josh Hines-Allen.

Pick: Jaguars win 34-27.

Davenport: Jaguars (+1.5)

That the Jags are getting points at home despite eight straight wins and nine victories in 10 games (including a blowout victory over the Chargers and an impressive win in Denver) shows that Vegas isn't completely sold on Jacksonville.

However, the Jaguars are playing as well as any team in the AFC, and they should be able to both pressure Josh Allen and run the ball on Buffalo's bottom-five run defense.

This is the week when the Jaguars truly legitimize themselves as a contender in the conference.

Gagnon: Bills (-1.5)

Admittedly, this is a scary one for a Buffalo team that loses its winter-weather advantage. Josh Allen is 0-4 in road playoff games, and the Jags have won four straight home games by 17-plus points.

However, Buffalo has a whole lot more playoff experience than Jacksonville, and it also has the best player in the sport.

I still have a hard time trusting Trevor Lawrence, and this is a slightly less intimidating road environment compared to Allen's last three road playoff losses in Kansas City.

Buffalo wins a close game thanks to some Allen magic in crunch time.

Predictions

Bills: Gagnon, Knox, Moton, O'Donnell

Jaguars: Davenport, Hanford, Sobleski

On paper, this is the most evenly balanced and highest-projected-scoring game of the first round of the playoffs. With Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, and Patrick Mahomes out of the playoffs, Josh Allen may never get a better chance to reach the Super Bowl. To do that, he'll have to overcome one of the worst overall rosters he's had throughout his time in Buffalo. The Bills have had issues stopping the run at the second and third levels all year long. Their defense gives up explosive plays constantly. The offense lacks players who can separate at an elite level, and this was on full display when they played high-quality secondaries like the Texans' and Eagles' and could barely move the ball and score.

It's hard to imagine this team actually lifting the Lombardi Trophy in February unless Allen goes on a generational run. This matchup is favorable on paper for the Jaguars for a few reasons.

  1. Jacksonville's run defense has been quietly elite this year. The Jaguars rank seventh in rush success rate allowed and third in EPA per rush. Bills offensive coordinator Joe Brady has a tendency to fall a little bit too in love with the run game, and the result is an offense that isn't actually as efficient as one with Josh Allen at quarterback should be. Allen has done plenty to bail them out on the money downs (he has elite numbers in obvious passing situations), but it's still a difficult tightrope to walk.
  2. The Jaguars are better on script than the Bills. The Jaguars are tied for fourth in the NFL in first-half points per game, while Buffalo is 10th. The Jaguars like to begin games by throwing the ball, whereas Buffalo looks to establish James Cook and the running game. Only the Jets and Ravens ran the ball more often in the first half this season than Buffalo. The Jaguars, meanwhile, actually passed the ball in the first half at the fifth-highest rate. If Brady tries to match the Jaguars offensively by running into the teeth of Jacksonville's defense, that may not go well for Buffalo. There's no reason Brady shouldn't unleash his superhuman quarterback early, but will he?
  3. For all the talk of the Patriots' easy schedule, Buffalo's schedule doesn't get enough press. Like the rest of the AFC East teams, the Bills benefited plenty from a favorable schedule of opponents. They did have a few tricky matchups against the Texans, Eagles, and Chiefs as a "reward" for finishing first in the division last year, but overall, they faced the second-easiest schedule in the NFL by DVOA this season.

Verdict: Lean Jaguars +1.5

Why Brooke picked the Jaguars: Don't look now, but the Jaguars are one of the hottest teams entering the postseason, with eight straight victories. On the season, they have beaten five playoff teams: Panthers, Texans, 49ers, Chargers and Broncos. Trevor Lawrence is playing the best football of his career under first-year head coach Liam Coen, finishing third in the league with 38 offensive TDs. No. 16 has gashed defenses with his arm and legs to get Jacksonville to 13 wins despite having 36 of his passes dropped this season (most for any QB in the NFL, per Next Gen Stats). He'll need his supporting cast to show up against the Bills' top-ranked pass defense, and the Jaguars' run game must rediscover its early-season form. That's where Coen's offense can have a significant edge over Sean McDermott's D, as the Bills have allowed 136.2 rush yards per game (28th in the league). Defensively, the Jags have been quite solid, forcing the second-most turnovers this season and boasting the league's best run D. That unit will have it's hands full with this year's rushing champion, James Cook, whose rush-yards-per-game and yards-per-carry figures in the playoffs steadily increased over the past three seasons: 26 rush YPG and 3.1 yds/carry in 2022; 70 and 3.9 in 2023; 90.7 and 5.1 in 2024.

Right now, the Jaguars are the better team. However, this game could completely tilt on its head because of one person: Bills quarterback Josh Allen. He's simply the best player at the most important position in this year's playoff field, with a 25:4 TD-to-INT ratio in 13 career postseason contests and an average of 311 total yards per game. It's going to take a playoff-sized effort from Anthony Campanile's defense to slow the mighty QB. Perhaps, it will be Josh Hines-Allen we're talking about at game's end. After all, he finished the season tied for the fourth-most QB pressures (80), per NGS.

There is one very big X-factor in this one: Jaguars K Cam Little. This season, he made the TWO longest field goals in NFL history, and let it be known that no player in playoff history has made a field goal of 60-plus yards. Could Little be on his way to more record-breaking moments? I, for one, expect the kicker to be a big part of any Jags success this postseason -- beginning with a game-winning boot on Sunday.