SUMMARY
Marwan Muasher, the former deputy prime minister of Jordan, thinks it was too simplistic for the world to expect that the Arab Spring would so quickly evolve autocracies into democracies. Margaret Warner sits down with Muasher to discuss his new book, "The Second Arab Awakening: And the Battle for Pluralism."
GWEN IFILL: Finally tonight: What's become of the Arab spring? In 2011, there was great hope that democracy would replace authoritarian regimes in a number of countries in the Middle East, but that's not exactly what happened.
Chief foreign affairs correspondent Margaret Warner explains why.
MARGARET WARNER: As the fourth year of the Arab spring begins, the Middle East is seeing fresh waves of violence of widening scope.
In Syria, Sunni-led rebels long fighting President Bashar al-Assad's forces are now battling jihadi extremist units as well. In Iraq, where Sunnis are protesting the Shiite-dominated government of Prime Minister Maliki, militants linked to al-Qaida have seized key western cities. And in Lebanon, spillover from the Syria conflict has triggered car bomb assassinations of top Sunni figures and bombings of Shiite neighborhoods in Southern Beirut.
Marwan Muasher, former foreign minister and deputy prime minister of Jordan, takes a long view of all this in his new book, "The Second Arab Awakening and the Battle for Pluralism."
We sat down for a conversation about it at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
What you call the second Arab awakening has so far seemed to have unleashed, basically, chaos and violence in Syria and in Libya, and new forms of undemocratic rule in Egypt, even Tunisia. Why is that?
MARWAN MUASHER, former Jordanian official: There is no transformational process in history that occurred the course of a short three years. The Arab world is no different.
The Arab world was living under a state of artificially induced stability for a long time, non-democratic governments, an Islamic opposition which promised the moon and did not -- was not put to the test to deliver on any of its promises.
Now that the lid has been taken off, all kinds of issues are coming out. So I think while it was simplistic to call it an Arab spring right after it occurred, expecting, you know, autocracies to evolve into democracies overnight, it is equally simplistic to think that this is an Arab winter, and that this is necessarily how the process will end.
MARGARET WARNER: So, do you think that this region will move to some sort of stable, but also open and democratic rule?
MARWAN MUASHER: I think what we have already seen is the bankruptcy of both the secular regimes and forces that are attempting to rule without a system of checks and balances and of a religious opposition which is promising the moon, but has not delivered on results.
That vacuum, if you will, that bankruptcy of both the secular and the religious forces has not been filled yet. Obviously, radical forces, al-Qaida types in Syria and other places, are attempting to make use of that to their own advantage.
So far, what we have not seen are third forces which are, you know, for democracy, for pluralism, assert themselves in this new transformation, and to present themselves as credible alternatives, both to the religious opposition that is there in the Arab world and to the secular, both regimes and forces who are also behaving in an exclusionist manner, and not really putting in place institutions that would assure a democratic and pluralistic culture.
MARGARET WARNER: Do you think there's anything in the sort of Arab culture or cultural DNA of this region that makes whoever gets in power embrace a kind of zero sum game, exclusive form of governing?
MARWAN MUASHER: Absolutely not.
What we are witnessing is a direct result of an era in the Arab world where democracy was not practiced nor encouraged, an educational system which basically taught people just to blindly follow leaders without critical thinking, without asking questions.
So, obviously, when this is disturbed, both the religious and secular forces are behaving in nondemocratic ways. It's so far a winner-take-all strategy. And as I say always, a zero sum game has meant that the sum is zero so far.
Until both forces realize that this is not a battle between secular and religious elements, until that becomes a battle for pluralism, where everybody assures the right not only of themselves, but of others, to operate in the political sphere, this second Arab awakening will not be successful.
MARGARET WARNER: But how do you foresee this battle taking shape? I mean, for instance, in Egypt, the young people, the middle-class people who came out to Tahrir Square demanding that Mubarak go said this is what they wanted, and yet they proved incapable of doing the hard work of building parties, and went -- and they lost the election.
MARWAN MUASHER: This is a natural process that will, I think, take its course in Egypt, maybe 14, 15 years before we see stability come again and before people realize that pluralism needs to be the underlying foundation, the operating system for everything that can be done.
MARGARET WARNER: The other split, of course, we're seeing -- and it seems to be growing wider and wider -- has been between Sunni and Shia. Who's going to resolve that? How will that get resolved?
MARWAN MUASHER: Again, this is, I think, a result of -- a direct result of the lack of pluralism, because the Sunni-Shiite divide in the Arab world is not just a religious divide. It's all -- also a political divide.
MARGARET WARNER: It's about power.
MARWAN MUASHER: It's -- well, yes, and groups, particularly Shiite groups in the Arab world have lived as second-class citizens for a long time. They were not given equal rights.
In my view, if all the ethnic, religious, political groups in Arab world are treated as equal citizens, a lot of these problems would just disappear. But this is not going to be automatic or immediate. This is going to take decades of work, in which you have to do things to the educational system, the value system that exists in the Arab world. In other words, there are no shortcuts to democracy.
MARGARET WARNER: But, in the meantime as you pointed out, extremist elements, violent jihadi elements are taking advantage of this vacuum.
The U.S. has made clear it's not going to intervene in the classic military sense. What will -- I mean, other than hoping that pluralistic forces get their act together, what will bring this region to some sort of stability?
MARWAN MUASHER: I think the jihadi sort of phenomenon is transient in the Arab world.
The radical elements in Syria now are being fought by the moderate Islamists themselves. This is a fight that needs to go on. But the overwhelming majority of the Arab world do not subscribe to al-Qaida types, do not subscribe to this jihadi radical thinking.
In the end, the street in the Arab world, just as the street in any other place in the world, who cares about job, about improving their lot -- they don't care about ideology and radical forces.
MARGARET WARNER: And overcoming that has to be done by the people on the ground, not by outside powers.
MARWAN MUASHER: Absolutely. This is a responsibility of Arabs themselves, no one else.
MARGARET WARNER: Marwan Muasher, thank you.
http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/world/jan-june14/arabspring_01-09.html
Published on Nov 25, 2013
Nearly three years after Tunisia's
revolution inspired citizens across the region, the nation that sparked
the Arab Spring has struggled with the transition away from
authoritarian rule. Filmmaker Jessie Deeter filed this report, narrated
by Hari Sreenivasan, about the mounting pressures as the society tries
to find its way.
JUDY WOODRUFF: Now to an update from the birthplace of the Arab spring, Tunisia.The North African nation has struggled with democracy since the ouster of its former leader nearly three years ago. That struggle is not unique among the region's new democracies, but its attempt to right its course is without precedent in the new Arab world.
Producer Jessie Deeter recently visited the country and filed this report narrated by Hari Sreenivasan.
ANIS MOEZ, Tunisia (through interpreter): When I used to pray, they would stop me and take my taxi permit. But now they give it back. And I went back to work. This is the only thing I gained from the revolution.
HARI SREENIVASAN: Anis Moez suffered under former President's Ben Ali's dictatorship in Tunisia, when Muslims were not allowed to show outward signs of their faith, including wearing head scarfs.
Now, like many Tunisians, he's still searching for the great promise offered by the revolution that kicked off the Arab spring nearly three years ago.
NABIHA BEN SAID, Tunisia (through interpreter): My wish? That Tunisia would stop and go back to the way we lived before. Life has gotten more expensive, too expensive in Tunisia. The population can't handle freedom. It's true. I swear to God. Look what freedom has done, where it's taken us.
HARI SREENIVASAN: Tunisia's revolution gave hope to the rest of the region that democracy was possible, but the transition from decades of authoritarian rule remains difficult.
Over the summer liberal politician Mohamed Brahmi was assassinated. It was the second murder of a political figure in a year. The killings, combined with frustration over high unemployment and security concerns, set off a month-long protest and calls for the ruling Ennahda party to dissolve government.
BEJI CAID ESSEBSI, Nidaa Tounes Party (through interpreter): They haven't been able to achieve the goals of the revolution, in other words, the unemployment, the poverty in the marginalized regions.
HARI SREENIVASAN: Former Tunisian Prime Minister Beji Caid Essebsi heads Nidaa Tounes, the secularist main opposition party to Ennahda.
BEJI CAID ESSEBSI (through interpreter): There have been serious incidents, assassinations of politicians, which have never happened before in Tunisia.
HARI SREENIVASAN: In an extraordinary move, Ennahda, led by Rashid al-Ghannushi, agreed to exit, rather than experience the fate of an ouster, like Egypt's Mohammed Morsi.
RASHID AL-GHANNUSHI, Ennahda Party (through interpreter): We in the Ennahda party have accepted to step down from the government without elections and without a coup. We will just work toward the transition and toward democracy.
Monica Marks studies Tunisia's political system at Oxford University.
MONICA MARKS, Oxford University: They realize that's probably the best strategic option for them, because they're sitting at the helm of government at a time of great strife.
MUSTAPHA K. NABIL, former Central Bank of Tunisia: We're in a situation now where growth is very weak, job creation is very weak and the social tensions are high.
HARI SREENIVASAN: Mustapha Nabil is the former governor of Tunisia's Central Bank. He fears that if a new transitional prime minister isn't chosen soon, it will be hard for Tunisia to pull back from the upheaval created by ongoing political uncertainty.
MUSTAPHA K. NABIL: You have a balance of payment under pressure. You have banking system under pressure. So, a lot of these things are coming now to bear, and the risks of some slippage, of some crisis, serious crisis, are there.
TAREK SPIKA, Tunisia (through interpreter): I voted for Ennahda. The next time, I'm going to cut off his finger, this finger that voted for Ennahda.
HARI SREENIVASAN: TAREK SPIKA is a shop owner from Gabes, an industrial town in the south of Tunisia. He says that the government hasn't helped him gain the work and security he sought by moving to Tunis.
TAREK SPIKA (through interpreter): Before the revolution a woman could go out in the street around 10:00 or 11:00 at night. Now no, because the country isn't safe.
MONICA MARKS: The security situation makes a lot of people nervous, because they are used to the eerie stability of a police state, in which nothing really ever happened.
But, for average, Tunisians this is a fragile situation, but it's also a frightening situation. And that kind of fear and feeling of instability I think, make people very vulnerable to these discourses of stability, of authoritarianism bringing more stability.
HARI SREENIVASAN: The main alternative to Islamist Ennahda is Nidaa Tounes. The party has been accused of having links to dictator Ben Ali's old regime, which was notorious for torture and corruption. It's alleged that much of the country's business community had direct ties to the former president.
Nidaa Tounes leader Essebsi says that he and his party shouldn't be judged by the transgressions of some in the pre-revolution government.
BEJI CAID ESSEBSI (through interpreter): I have been in politics since March 1956, independence day. I was here, and I'm still here. But the old regime isn't all dirty, you know? There were two million Tunisians with Ben Ali. We can't exclude them all.
HARI SREENIVASAN: But the new government by its own admission has not held members of the old guard accountable for past crimes.
RASHID AL-GHANNUSHI (through interpreter): We have failed in some things. We didn't hold accountable those who were corrupt. And so the protest against us are back because we were not strong enough in punishing the corrupt individuals.
HARI SREENIVASAN: Ennahda and its political opponents are in gridlock over the country's future. And attempts to agree on a caretaker prime minister have been delayed. A new election won't happen until six or seven months after that leader is chosen.
KACEM AFAYA, Workers Union of Tunisia (through interpreter): We are currently pressuring them to convince them to reach a consensus in order to save Tunisia.
Kacem Afaya of the UGTT union that is mediating negotiations between the two parties is worried about the consequences of not reaching a deal.
KACEM AFAYA (through interpreter): It is critical that we avoid a bloody confrontation. It is essential that we succeed in bringing back safety and social stability. If we don't find a solution in December, it will be the bankruptcy of this regime.
HARI SREENIVASAN: The constituent assembly, the body charged with rewriting Tunisia's constitution, is more than a year past its mandated deadline and must wait until a new acting prime minister is chosen to finish. But it, unlike other parts of the government, will not be dissolved until the constitution has been completed.
Amel Azzouz is an Ennahda member and constituent assembly representative.
AMEL AZZOUZ, Ennahda Party: We will dissolve the government, but this constituent assembly will remain, because it the center of democracy. It's the symbol of democracy. It's the symbol of the will of people. And it is thanks to this assembly that we will guarantee the movement or the transition to another period, to an entrenched democracy and republic, a new republic.
HARI SREENIVASAN: As difficult as this transition seems, experts like Monica Marks are still hopeful.
MONICA MARKS: If Tunisia can pull through these next number of years, if people can together work for compromise and have that blitzkrieg mentality, we're going to get through this no matter what, then Tunisia could become the first democracy in the Arab world, and no longer can people say Arabs aren't ready for democracy.
HARI SREENIVASAN: But the longer Tunisians like Anis Moez wait for the critical next steps, the further away the democracy becomes.
http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/world/july-dec13/tunisia_11-25.html
| UNLIKELY HEROES OF THE ARAB SPRING | |
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 Amid provocative images of the Arab uprisings of 2010 and 2011, De Soto introduces the people and events that recently rocked the Arab world, sparked by the self-immolation of the poor, 26 year old street vendor, Tarek Bouazizi. It was not the $225 lost from his fruit cart, expropriated by the police, that transformed young Bouazizi into a martyr and a symbol of the revolution — it was his similarity to the 180 million informal Arab entrepreneurs; many of them under 30 and computer literate. Over 100 of them followed Bouazizi in acts of self-immolation. The history of business in the Arab world is highlighted in sequences from Morocco, and the program demonstrates how business is thriving along with Arab culture in the international business city of Istanbul. Traveling through the region, De Soto summarizes, “Throughout the Middle East the story is the same. As the industrial revolution comes to the Middle East, the true path to stability rests in the region's single common denominator: the informal marketplace. The Arab consensus ahead is about more than emancipating the entrepreneurial spirit; it’s about resolving the institutional deficiencies that make most Arabs desperately poor." | |
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