OH man, what an ugly game....The number of penalties against the Bills SCREAMS they have to tighten up because in the last 2 games this season they do not look like a team that wants to make the playoffs. Super Bowl bound? Not playing like this I am sorry to say. I have been a Buffalo Bills fan all my life and I am not walking away from them now but come on yous guys, make me want to SHOUT again, PLEASE!!!
Patriots-Bills takeaways: New England takes down Buffalo as last undefeated team falls
By Chad Graff, Joe Buscaglia and Rebecca Tauber
The NFL’s undefeated teams are no longer.
The New England Patriots beat the Buffalo Bills 23-20 Sunday night, just hours after the Denver Broncos gave the Philadelphia Eagles their first loss of the season.
The Bills got off to a slow start, ultimately turning the ball over three times. Buffalo kept it close thanks to some last-minute moves by Josh Allen, but it was Patriots quarterback Drake Maye that shone Sunday night alongside receiver Stefon Diggs, who made a statement in his return to Orchard Park.
“Obviously I love those guys, still got a good relationship with those guys, still got a lot of respect for them,” Diggs said of his former Bills teammates in an interview with NBC Sports after the game. “But I love the game of football more.”
The 4-1 Bills play the Atlanta Falcons Monday, Oct. 13, while the 3-2 Patriots take on the New Orleans Saints on Sunday.
Diggs is back on top for New England
Diggs left no doubt that he’s back to playing like a No. 1 wide receiver — and he did it against his former team, which traded him away following the 2023 season.
By posting 146 receiving yards, Diggs became the first Patriots wide receiver to notch back-to-back games with at least 100 yards since Tom Brady was with the franchise (Julian Edelman did it last in Weeks 5 and 6 of the 2019 season). It was also Diggs’ first time posting consecutive 100-yard games since the 2023 season, and Sunday was his highest output since recording 148 in 2022.
His emergence has lifted the Patriots’ passing attack and boosted Maye during his breakout season.
Diggs opened the season as the team’s No. 3 wide receiver while he was eased into the lineup after suffering a torn ACL at the end of October last year.
But he looks like he’s back to 100 percent. He recorded 101 yards last week and topped it Sunday in Buffalo. That’s welcome news for a Patriots team that has lacked a true No. 1 receiver. — Chad Graff, senior writer, Patriots
Maye continues strong season
Maye rolled to his right and unleashed a pass while on the run that traveled 40 yards in the air before landing perfectly-placed in the hands of Diggs.
This season has already felt like a breakout Year 2 for Maye with a few jaw-dropping throws already on his resume, but this one might have been his best of the season.
It certainly wasn’t a perfect night for Maye, who seemed a bit skittish in the pocket in the first half, but he mostly showcased for a primetime audience what’s become apparent through the first month of the season — that Maye is emerging as a top-10 quarterback in the NFL.
The quarterback was especially good in the second half, completing 13 of 14 passes for 184 yards. He finished with 273 yards on the game. That was important for the Patriots, considering they mostly abandoned the run after Antonio Gibson was injured and Rhamondre Stevenson fumbled. — Graff
Improved Patriots defense comes through
The Patriots focused most of their offseason resources on fixing their defense, part of Vrabel’s overhaul of this roster.
After some rocky moments early this season, the unit stepped up in a massive way Sunday night, mostly bottling up a high-powered Bills offense.
They held Allen in check (at least relatively speaking for the defending MVP) and gave the offense the needed chances to win the game.
Against a Bills team that doesn’t often beat itself, the Patriots forced three turnovers and limited explosive plays. They also didn’t let Buffalo’s dominant run game get going, holding James Cook to 49 yards on 15 carries.
The rest of the Patriots’ season will probably depend more on how Maye continues to play, but this was an impressive performance from the team’s defense. — Graff
Buffalo suffers from mistakes
Although the Bills looked like themselves at certain points of the game, there were just too many errors that they didn’t make through the first four games of the season. The most significant piece of the puzzle was the turnovers, with Allen throwing one interception, and then the offense losing two fumbles on top of it. The Bills had rarely turned the ball over through their four-game win streak, and now have their first loss of the season to show for it.
Penalties were also a significant issue for the Bills, resulting in 11 infractions for 90 yards, which helped the Patriots breathe life into drives and contribute to the upset.
To top it all off, the in-game lulls that have plagued the Bills’ offense at times followed them once again. The first half was one to forget for that side of the ball, and was a massive reason as to why the Bills are no longer undefeated.
Despite a perfect record coming in, the Bills were not a perfect team — and the Patriots exposed many of their flaws and unearthed a couple more for the Bills to work on this week. — Joe Buscaglia, staff writer, Bills
Kincaid a bright spot in Bills loss
The red-hot start to Dalton Kincaid’s third NFL season continued with the best performance of his career. Kincaid was a consistent thorn in the Patriots’ side, putting together a six-catch, 108-yard effort while only playing on fewer than 60 percent of the team’s offensive snaps. Kincaid easily surpassed his previous career high in yards, reaching the 100-yard mark for the first time in the NFL.
The tight end has really turned a corner this year in a tight end-heavy scheme that the Bills employ, and he’s easily become one of Allen’s most trusted targets. As the Bills have been searching for their young pass catchers to step up in 2025, Kincaid has answered that call to this point. — Buscaglia
Are Bills destined for Super Bowl? Why NFL Projection Model makes them heavy favorites
The Kansas Chiefs look vulnerable. The Baltimore Ravens are struggling. More and more, it’s beginning to seem like this could — and should — be the year of the Buffalo Bills.
Of course, they’ve come close before. In fact, the Bills have made the playoffs in all six full seasons of the Josh Allen era (2019-24), winning the last five AFC East division crowns and looking to be well on their way to making it six in a row. The issue, however, is that once they’ve reached the postseason, things have gone sideways — almost always against the Chiefs. Kansas City has knocked the Bills out of the postseason four of the past five years — including two AFC Championship games — with the Bengals booting them out of the 2022 playoffs.
But things could be different this year.
Entering the season, it appeared as though the top-heavy AFC would be a three-team fight to the finish, but with the 1-3 Ravens and 2-2 Chiefs off to uncharacteristically slow starts, Buffalo now looks like the class of the conference all by itself. And winning the conference could make a world of difference once the Bills reach the postseason.
Both of the Bills’ AFC title game exits have come at Arrowhead Stadium. But this time, the Bills are positioned to make sure the AFC runs through Highmark Stadium.
Entering Week 5, according to my NFL Projection Model, the 4-0 Bills have a 99% chance to make the playoffs and a 94% chance to win the AFC East, so getting to the dance is nearly a lock. But they also are now the overwhelming favorites to secure the No. 1 seed, which, of course, would give them a first-round bye and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.
They’ve never had that during the Allen era, as four of their six playoff exits have come on the road.
So, is this the year? There's no question the opportunity is there. Allen ranks second in EPA/dropback among qualified quarterbacks, according to TruMedia, and if we split that out further, he's ninth in EPA/dropback when facing no pressure and sixth when facing pressure. It doesn't really matter which metric you look at, the conclusion is the same: Allen will find a way to carve up a defense, one way or another.
And it's not just the passing game that's lethal; the running game has looked lethal this season, too. James Cook ranks second in rushing success rate and EPA/rush among running backs with at least 10 carries per game this season. He also has the eighth-lowest percentage of rushes that go for no gain or a loss, and that's despite running into an eight-man box at a higher rate than all but five other backs.
Put simply: The Bills offense is performing like arguably the best unit in the league right now. And that's exactly how my model sees them, as the Bills edge out the Ravens and Lions as the model's top-rated offense.
However, as we've seen in the past, the offense isn't typically Buffalo's issue in getting over the hump in the playoffs. If the Bills' time is really now, the defense will need to step it up.
Through four weeks, the Bills rank about average or worse in just about every critical defensive statistic you can find. EPA/ play: 17th. Defensive success rate: 14th. Series conversion rate (the percent of first downs that turn into another first down or touchdown): 16th. And this is despite playing the 0-4 Jets, 1-3 Dolphins, and 0-4 Saints in their last three games.
The good news is that help is on the way, as defensive tackle Ed Oliver and linebacker Matt Milano both practiced this week. Oliver has been out since his brilliant performance against the Ravens in Week 1. Milano, meanwhile, has missed the last two games. The Bills will also eventually get to deploy first-round rookie cornerback Maxwell Hairston, who has been on injured reserve since training camp with a knee injury.
Injuries on defense (and poor play) have played a huge role in what's derailed the Bills in the playoffs. In their four playoff losses to Kansas City, they've conceded about 35 points per game. The offense has scored about 28 points per game in defeat.
But the Chiefs don't have that same unbeatable shimmer around them right now. Sure, QB Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City offense are coming off a resurgent performance against Baltimore last weekend, but the Ravens defense looks like one of the worst in the league. And considering the Chiefs' offensive struggles the past couple of seasons, it's going to take more than one game to make people (and my model) believe that they're back to being the overwhelming force they used to be.
Factor in that they are still slated to face the sixth-toughest remaining schedule in the league, while Buffalo has one of the easiest remaining slates, and the Bills are in prime position to stay ahead of the Chiefs and have the playoffs run through Highmark Stadium in January.
As for the other contenders, the model sees the Indianapolis Colts as the only other team with a double-digit chance of securing the No. 1 seed, and that seems like putting a lot of faith in a small sample size from QB Daniel Jones. Perhaps another team surprises or the Ravens bounce back, but at this moment, the Bills appear to have a golden opportunity in front of them.
The Bills started their season with a thrilling come-from-behind victory over AFC contender Baltimore at Highmark Stadium. How poetic would it be if they parlayed that start to the season into a chance to finally take down Mahomes and the Chiefs on their own home field, in front of thousands of frenzied Bills fans? That's the storybook ending; now the Bills just have to write it.
(Photo: Michael Owens / Getty Images)
