HERE is the 2012 Electoral prediction map and an interesting analysis of the 2008 presidential election year polls and results, with maps, from Intrade......
Updated October 11, 2012
The map below is based on data from
the Intrade prediction market, where individuals place wagers on the
outcome of the 2012 Presidential election in each state. The darker the
shade of blue or red, the more likely that the Democrat or Republican
will carry the state. Wagering is on party victory, but the nominees are
Barack Obama and Mitt Romney. Hover over any state for details.
ROMNEY 235
|
OBAMA 303 ✓
|
TOSSUP 0✓
|
http://electoralmap.net/2012/intrade.php
2008 Electoral Map - Election Results
Shown immediately below is the electoral map depicting the results of
the 2008 presidential election in which Barack Obama won with 365
electoral votes to John McCain's 173. Below, the Intrade results are
shown. Further down you will find the 2008
pollster report card.
Obama 365
McCain 173
2008 Electoral Map - Intrade Forecast
Shown immediately below is the Nov 4, 2008 election day forecast from
the Intrade prediction market. Intrade did not predict Nebraska
splitting its votes, and it was the first time in state history that
this happened. Missouri and Indiana were also reversed in the forecast,
but both having eleven electoral votes resulted in a nearly dead-on
electoral vote count.
Obama 364
McCain 174
2008 Pollster Report Card
The table below is an assessment of pollster performance in the 2008
Presidential election. The pollsters were graded on both the
accuracy of their final poll (popular vote) and the consistency of their
polling during the month of October.
The overall score is a weighted average of their Accuracy and
Consistency numbers. The weighting is 75% accuracy and 25%
consistency. Formula details are at the bottom of this page.
|
Overall |
|
|
|
|
| Poll |
Score |
Grade |
|
Accuracy |
Consistency |
| Rasmussen Reports |
91% |
A- |
|
92% |
86% |
| Ipsos/McClatchy |
89% |
B+ |
|
92% |
79% |
| CNN/Opinion Research |
88% |
B+ |
|
92% |
77% |
| Fox News |
84% |
B |
|
92% |
61% |
| Pew |
83% |
B- |
|
92% |
56% |
| GWU/Battleground |
79% |
C+ |
|
92% |
41% |
| Diageo/Hotline |
77% |
C+ |
|
77% |
79% |
| NBC News / Wall St. Journal |
76% |
C |
|
77% |
75% |
| Gallup Traditional |
73% |
C- |
|
77% |
63% |
| Marist |
67% |
D+ |
|
62% |
82% |
| ABC News / Wash Post |
67% |
D+ |
|
62% |
82% |
| IBD/TIPP |
66% |
D |
|
77% |
34% |
| Gallup Expanded |
66% |
D |
|
62% |
78% |
| CBS News / NYT |
60% |
D- |
|
62% |
56% |
| Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby |
35% |
F |
|
31% |
48% |
Data
The data for this chart come from the
Real Clear Politics
summary on 12 November 2008.
Here is
a local mirror of that data, with the final polls summarized at the top.
Here is a quick summary of the final spread predicted by the pollsters,
ranked from most accurate to least:
| Poll |
Obama |
McCain |
|
Spread (actual=6.5) |
|
Off by |
| Rasmussen Reports |
52 |
46 |
|
6 |
|
0.5 |
| Pew |
52 |
46 |
|
6 |
|
0.5 |
| GWU/Battleground |
50 |
44 |
|
6 |
|
0.5 |
| Ipsos/McClatchy |
53 |
46 |
|
7 |
|
0.5 |
| CNN/Opinion Research |
53 |
46 |
|
7 |
|
0.5 |
| Fox News |
50 |
43 |
|
7 |
|
0.5 |
| Diageo/Hotline |
50 |
45 |
|
5 |
|
1.5 |
| NBC News / Wall St. Journal |
51 |
43 |
|
8 |
|
1.5 |
| Gallup Traditional |
51 |
43 |
|
8 |
|
1.5 |
| IBD/TIPP |
52 |
44 |
|
8 |
|
1.5 |
| Marist |
52 |
43 |
|
9 |
|
2.5 |
| ABC News / Wash Post |
53 |
44 |
|
9 |
|
2.5 |
| Gallup Expanded |
52 |
43 |
|
9 |
|
2.5 |
| CBS News / NYT |
51 |
42 |
|
9 |
|
2.5 |
| Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby |
54 |
43 |
|
11 |
|
4.5 |
Formulas
Every final poll showed Obama with a lead, so assessing their
accuracy is just a matter of comparing their forecasted spread with the
actual spread of the election which was Obama +6.5.
Final poll accuracy score = 100 - ( |(POLL SPREAD -
6.5)| / 6.5 )
All the pollsters graded had more than one poll during the month of
October. If a poll reported a wide spread and then suddenly
narrowed down right before the election, this formula produces a lower
score. Likewise a pollster gets a lower score if they predicted a
very tight race until the end and then widened up.
October Consistency = 100 - ( POLL STDEV / POLL AVERAGE )
http://electoralmap.net/2012/2008_election.php
