There's another poll out today showing President Obama with a nine point lead in Ohio. That's the fifth poll in a row showing him with a larger than a five point lead. The Quinnipiac University/CBS News/New York Times poll that came out last week had him with a ten point lead.
No Republican has ever won the presidency without winning Ohio. Plus, whoever has won Ohio has won the last 11 presidential races. Ten point leads aren't small, they're gigantic.
Here's my new favorite fact: whoever is leading two weeks after the last convention has never relinquished the lead in the last 15 presidential elections. It's way past two weeks since the last convention and President Obama doesn't have a small lead, he has a huge lead.
This thing is over. The rest is just running out the clock. In fact, I already called it on our Current show last Wednesday.
Could a miracle happen between now and Election Day? Of course, but it would have to be a major one because I don't think a minor miracle will do it here. Do you still have to vote? Of course, none of these polls matter if people don't actually go out and vote.
But the debates are very unlikely to move the numbers and President Obama, being a careful politician, is very unlikely to stumble and Romney, who has been running an awful campaign, is very unlikely to miraculously get much, much better and overwhelm the president in the next month or so.
Does Romney look like he's running the kind of campaign that could pull off the greatest come from behind victory in our lifetimes?
Here is another look at the numbers to show you why this is not a close election (including other swing states):
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/cenk-uygur/obama-polls-lead_b_1927955.html?utm_hp_ref=daily-brief?utm_source=DailyBrief&utm_campaign=100112&utm_medium=email&utm_content=BlogEntry&utm_term=Daily%20Brief
Obama's re-election looks an ever-safer bet
US president opens up a five-point lead over Romney in latest national poll.
By George Eaton
Barack Obama waves at a campaign event in West Palm Beach, Florida. Photograph: Getty Images.
In addition, approval with Obama has risen from 45% before the convention to 50%, the level that typically guarantees re-election. Significantly, this is a far larger bounce than that received by Romney, who saw support for him rise by a statistically insignificant one point after the Republican convention.
Finally, Obama has also extended his lead in Ohio, the most likely "tipping point" state, (see Nicky Woolf's on-the-ground report for the NS). Overnight, the first Ohio poll since the convention gave Obama a five-point lead over Romney (50-45), his largest since early May.
Barring some unexpected foreign or economic crisis, Romney's only remaining chance to change the state of the race will come with the presidential TV debates, the first of which is on 3 October. But it will be worth watching the polls closely for the next fortnight. As a study by political scientists Robert Erikson and Christopher Wlezien showed, the candidate who leads in the polls two weeks after the conventions has won the popular vote in the last 15 presidential elections
http://www.newstatesman.com/blogs/politics/2012/09/obamas-re-election-looks-ever-safer-bet
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