Betting websites like Polymarket and Kalshi keep expanding their offerings, allowing people to wager on the outcomes of almost everything, from who will win the World Cup to who will attend Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce’s wedding.
But now these so-called prediction markets are literally playing with fire, allowing users to bet on blazes that have destroyed entire communities in the West.
In January 2025, as megafires were consuming neighborhoods in greater Los Angeles, Polymarket’s “markets team” created the opportunity for people to bet on the size and scope of the fires and the damage they would cause. By the time firefighters had the situation under control, 31 people were dead and 16,000 structures destroyed—and $1.2 million had been wagered.
A new platform has emerged solely for people to bet on California wildfires. The “Wyldfyre” prediction market purported to be the first of its kind, telling users, “You can’t predict wildfire. But you can trade on it.”
Ethicists say betting on wildfires raises thorny questions about the value of human life and could create perverse incentives for arsonists. Survivors I spoke with decried people who would bet on their trauma and loss, calling it “morally reprehensible.”
As states and the federal government grapple with whether, and how, they should regulate prediction markets—which create a great deal of potential for insider trading, including by government officials—plenty of people are wondering why betting on wildfire is even legal.
You can read my story at High Country News.
—Kylie Mohr
