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Showing posts with label crime. Show all posts
Showing posts with label crime. Show all posts

16 August 2024

The other big shift in the presidential race 14AUG15

 



THE Harris-Walz campaign is challenging drumpf / trump-vance on everything, but especially with actual facts on the issues America is dealing with like crime, immigration and prices.  Let us not forget the Biden-Harris administration with the Democratic and Republican Congressional leadership had negotiated bi-partisan legislation on the Southern border and immigration that congress was going to pass and Pres Biden was going to sign until donald drumpf / trump told the republicans in congress not to vote on it so it would remain an issue in the 2024 Pres election.   From the Washington Post.....

Trump was running against Biden on crime, inflation and the border. Now Biden’s out — and those other issues aren’t as potent as they were.

Philip Bump is a Post columnist based in New York. He writes the newsletter How To Read This Chart and is the author of The Aftermath: The Last Days of the Baby Boom and the Future of Power in America. Twitter



One month ago, the Republican Party was convening in Milwaukee to anoint Donald Trump as its presidential nominee for the third consecutive election. The convention was energetic and brash; the attempt on Trump’s life had reinforced Republicans’ already robust enthusiasm for their candidate, and Trump skeptics had long ago been rooted out of the inner circle. Polling showed that the former president was on a glide path to election. States that hadn’t been red in decades suddenly looked like they might be in play in 2024.

Then the convention ended. President Joe Biden announced that he would no longer seek the Democratic Party’s nomination, clearing the way for Vice President Kamala Harris. Democrats, suddenly giddy about their chances and about their candidate, threw cash at the revamped candidacy. Harris surged in the polls.

But that wasn’t the only shift the race has undergone in recent months. In addition to Trump suddenly facing an entirely new opponent — to his obvious chagrin — he’s also facing a shifted political landscape. He’d intended to run against Biden and the Biden administration’s track record on crime, immigration and inflation. But none of those attacks is as potent as it was two years ago.

Crime

It goes without saying that the coronavirus pandemic upended the country in numerous ways. What was not clear at the time, though, was how sticky the effects might be. When violent crime surged in 2020 and into 2021, for example, it wasn’t clear whether this was a permanent reversion of the downward trend the country had seen since the early 1990s.

Fox News has been consistently insistent that crime is surging under Biden, making fearmongering about crime a central component of its coverage before the 2022 midterms. Since that point, though, data has repeatedly indicated that crime — and violent crime in particular — has declined over the past few years.

As we’ve noted, measuring national crime trends in real time is tricky. Data are available in some cities, but consistent national data is gathered only well after the fact. Even then, it’s often incomplete. But the data that are available and outside analyses of city-level trends suggest a noteworthy decline.

Last week, the Major Cities Chiefs Association, an organization of law enforcement leaders, released data showing sharp drops in violent crime in a number of large American cities between the first half of 2023 and the first half of 2024. Biden hailed the data, crediting the American Rescue Plan.

Category
2023
2024
Change
Homicide
3,783
3,124
-17%
Rape
14,472
13,064
-10%
Robbery
48,529
45,575
-6%
Agg. assault
141,944
134,293
-5%

This is not the only such data. FBI data released in June showed a similar year-over-year decline, as did data the bureau released in December. When the agency released its data for 2022, it showed a decrease in crime that year — contrary to Fox News’s coverage.

Immigration

Mirroring his 2016 campaign for president, Trump has focused heavily on immigration in his bid to regain the presidency. He's fond of amplifying data about the number of apprehensions at the U.S.-Mexico border to suggest that the country is overrun with new arrivals, particularly those who entered the country illegally.

This rhetoric is enabled by the complexity of the subject (like that those entering the country to seek asylum are often granted permission to remain and that a large percentage of those apprehended have been quickly removed from the country). But Trump's assertions about an “open border” are also hobbled by the striking decrease in apprehensions in recent months.

In December, nearly 250,000 people were apprehended between border checkpoints on the border with Mexico. In January, though, the number was half as large. From February to March, the monthly figure dropped by 2 percent. From March to April, it was down 6 percent. Then 9 percent the next month and, in June, down 29 percent over May — the month in which the Biden administration unveiled new rules governing asylum applications. The result is that apprehensions in June were a third of those seen in December.

The figure is still high, certainly, more in line with levels of apprehensions seen during the administration of George W. Bush than that of Barack Obama. Apprehensions were low under Obama in part because the U.S. economy was still recovering from the recession; they were unusually low in 2020 because of the pandemic.

Another way to look at it: There were fewer apprehensions between border checkpoints in June 2024 than there were in June 2019 under Donald Trump.

Prices

The central argument Trump has been using for his candidacy, of course, is that the country has been wracked by inflation. And that's true; after the initial restrictions linked to the pandemic were eased, prices surged along with demand.

Trump points to various products to emphasize those price increases. He often claims that gasoline jumped from $1.87 during his administration to somewhere north of $5 under Biden. Speaking to Elon Musk on Monday, he offered another example: Bacon now costs “4 or 5 times more than it did a few years ago.”

The reason gasoline was cheap during the Trump administration, of course, is that demand crashed as people were staying home to avoid the coronavirus. Nor are national prices north of $5; they’ve leveled off in recent months in the $3.50 range, according to the Energy Information Administration. Bacon did surge in cost in 2021, but has since stabilized (well below four times what it cost a few years ago).

It's worth noting, by the way, that the national average price of gas in recent months is somewhat lower than it was under Obama. It was during the Obama administration that prices dropped to the levels that Trump now exaggerates.

What's important about the gas and bacon prices, though, is that, after the initial surge, prices didn't keep climbing higher and higher. Prices of those products jumped — and then remained at those new higher levels.

This isn't great, and these are just two products. It is also true, as the administration argues, that average wages have increased more rapidly since 2021 and that the increase in the rate of inflation has slowed. (You can see it on the graph at right below, that little inflection point marked with the vertical dotted line.) The rate of increase in wages has in recent months consistently been larger than the rate of increase of inflation, in fact.

On Wednesday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released new data on inflation showing that the annual increase last month was lower than at any point since March 2021. Again, this isn't deflation, a decrease in prices. But it does suggest that the valid concerns about the rate at which prices were increasing have been significantly addressed.

This is an esoteric evaluation of the economy, certainly, but polling data suggests that Trump’s advantage on the economy has narrowed, in part thanks to the change at the top of the Democratic ticket.

These shifts also are not likely to change Trump’s rhetoric. He is no more interested in presenting accurate information about crime, immigration and inflation than he ever was, so he highlights things like the unmeasured-and-exaggerated concept of “migrant crime” to stoke fears about the direction of the country.

Still, the current numbers are a reflection of how the ground under Trump’s feet has shifted. He’s running against the first half of Biden’s administration, when Biden was his opponent and crime, inflation and immigration were acute problems. But now, to his chagrin, it’s 2024. The landscape is very different.

03 February 2017

Nazis Once Published List of Jewish Crimes, Trump Now Pushing to Do the Same for Immigrant Crimes 2FEB17



JUST as the overwhelming majority of  German Jews were not involved in any criminal activity in hitler's third reich the same hold true for immigrants in the U.S. Just like hitler deceived and manipulated the public through a propaganda campaign into believing German Jews were committing a lot of serious and horrible crimes so too the drumpf/trump-pence administration is deceiving and manipulating the American public into believing immigrants and refugees and responsible for many serious and horrible crimes in the U.S. Our nation used to be better than this, that has changed with the election of drumpf/trump-pence, and all of us will suffer for it. From +Democracy Now! .....

Nazis Once Published List of Jewish Crimes, Trump Now Pushing to Do the Same for Immigrant Crimes

FEBRUARY 02, 2017

The Trump administration has announced plans to publish a weekly list of crimes committed by unauthorized immigrants living in so-called sanctuary cities, where local officials and law enforcement are refusing to comply with federal immigration authorities’ efforts to speed up deportations. The plans for the weekly list, to be published by the Department of Homeland Security, were included in Trump’s executive orders signed last week. We speak to Andrea Pitzer. Her upcoming book is called "One Long Night: A Global History of Concentration Camps."

Andrea Pitzer
journalist and author who writes about lost and forgotten history. Her upcoming book is called One Long Night: A Global History of Concentration Camps. It looks at mass civilian detention without trial from 1896 to today.
TRANSCRIPT
This is a rush transcript. Copy may not be in its final form.
AMY GOODMAN: Can you talk about what President Trump has said he’s going to do: keep a list of, quote, "immigrant crimes"?
ANDREA PITZER: Well, this weekly report that he has called for recalls a number of things from the past that we have seen before, which is this move to isolate and identify and then vilify a vulnerable minority community in order to move against it. When he—I just went back last night and reread his speech from when he declared his candidacy, and the Mexican rapist comment was in from the beginning, and so this has been a theme throughout. And we see back in Nazi Germany there was a paper called—a Nazi paper called Der Stürmer, and they had a department called "Letter Box," and readers were invited to send in stories of supposed Jewish crimes. And Der Stürmer would publish them, and they would include some pretty horrific graphic illustrations of these crimes, as well. And there was even a sort of a lite version of it, if you will, racism lite, in which the Neues Volk, which was more like a Look or a Life magazine, which normally highlighted beautiful Aryan families and their beautiful homes, would run a feature like "The Criminal Jew," and they would show photos of "Jewish-looking," as they called it, people who represented different kinds of crimes that one ought to watch out for from Jews.
So this preoccupation with focusing in on one subset of the population’s crimes and then depicting that as somehow depraved and abnormal from the main population is something we’ve seen quite a bit in the past, even in the U.S. Before Japanese-American internment, you had newspapers like the San Francisco Chronicle running about the unassimilability of the Japanese immigrants and also the crime tendencies and depravities they had, which were distinguished from the main American population.
JUAN GONZÁLEZ: And, of course, this flies in the face of all studies that have shown that the crime rate among immigrant populations in the United States is actually lower than it is among ordinary American citizens, but yet this is attempting to take isolated incidents or particular crimes and sort of raise them to the level of a general trend, isn’t it?
ANDREA PITZER: It is. And I think it’s part of a disturbing narrative in which you strip out the broader context and the specificity of actions like this, and you try to weave them into this preset narrative of good and evil somehow, that really ends up being simple and dishonest and very counterproductive for the society as a whole. But yes, in general, these groups would want to keep a lower profile. They would want to stay off law enforcement’s radar. And so, this is one of the reasons that’s been suspected that it’s actually a lower crime rate. But if you get a few dramatic images—and don’t forget now, this won’t be coming out—you know, Breitbart has had this "black crimes" tag that they’ve used to try to do a similar thing in the past. And now we have Bannon in the White House. And it’s sort of a scaling-up and doing this with a different minority group, and you’ll have these, what will no doubt be, very dramatic narratives that will come forward that will eclipse the larger picture. And they’re going to have the imprimatur of a government report, which I think is another disturbing aspect.
AMY GOODMAN: I wanted to ask you, Andrea Pitzer, about the White House considering a plan to make visitors reveal cellphone, internet data. Describe the role mass surveillance plays in authoritarian societies.
ANDREA PITZER: Well, over time, we’ve seen that it’s very hard to have an authoritarian or a totalitarian society, a state that runs, without a secret police. And you can’t—what you need the secret police for is to gather information secretly. The surveillance techniques and abilities that we have today are really unparalleled in history. And while we can’t yet be sure what the Trump administration’s motives are, what they have at their disposal is far greater than what was had in Soviet Russia, in Nazi Germany. I’m thinking in particular of Himmler complaining that he had trouble keeping track of all the people he needed to, because he needed so many agents. But when you have the kind of technology that we do, you don’t need as many people, if you have the right tools to use. And so, the ability to gather that kind of information and then potentially use it, domestically or on foreigners who happen to be here, I think is something that’s worth paying attention to and to be concerned about.
AMY GOODMAN: That’s Andrea Pitzer, journalist and author who writes about lost and forgotten history. Her upcoming book, One Long Night: A Global History of Concentration Camps. This is Democracy Now!, democracynow.org, The War and Peace Report. Stay with us.
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12 September 2016

I Side With 2016 Political Quiz



THIS is an interesting quiz from I Side With about your political views and what presidential candidate most reflects your opinions. Be sure to answer all the questions for the most accurate results. Here are my results and I swear I did not go back and change any of my answers so my results would be what I want then to be. Here is the map showing where in the U.S. others share my views. By the by, I supported Sen Bernie Sanders in the Democratic primaries and am supporting and voting for Hillary Clinton on 8 NOV 16. 

I side with Jill Stein on most 2016 Presidential Election issues

Candidates you side with by issue...

Your ideology...

Left-Wing
Your political beliefs would be considered moderately Left-Wing on an ideological scale, meaning you tend to support policies that promote social and economic equality.

Your political themesbeta

PrivacyvsSecurity
70
You side strongly towards “Privacy”, meaning you strongly believe the government should not undermine the rights and privacy of its citizens under the guise of national security. This theme is most important to you.
EnvironmentalismvsAnthropocentrism
62
You side moderately towards “Environmentalism”, meaning you believe in sustainability, environmental protection, and improving the health of the environment. This theme is most important to you.
RegulationvsDeregulation
54
You side moderately towards “Regulation”, meaning you believe the government should regulate business activity to ensure no one is taking advantage of the system. This theme is most important to you.
Small GovernmentvsBig Government
100
You side extremely towards “Big Government”, meaning you very strongly believe the government should do more to address social inequality, corruption, and assistance for its citizens. This theme is most important to you.
PopulismvsElitism
88
You side strongly towards “Populism”, meaning you strongly believe decisions are best made when everyone has a say. This theme is most important to you.
IsolationismvsImperialism
82
You side strongly towards “Isolationism”, meaning you strongly believe we should focus attention on our most pressing issues at home instead of involving ourselves in non-threatening issues abroad. This theme is most important to you.
CapitalismvsSocialism
46
You side moderately towards “Socialism”, meaning you support an economic system which advocates collective or governmental ownership and administration of the means of production and distribution of goods. This theme is most important to you.
GlobalizationvsProtectionism
58
You side moderately towards “Protectionism”, meaning you believe globalization is detrimental to the safety, compensation, environment, and standard of living of workers. This theme is most important to you.
Laissez-fairevsKeynesian
60
You side moderately towards “Keynesian”, meaning you believe the government should provide economic assistance to stabilize the economy. This theme is most important to you.
CollectivismvsIndividualism
76
You side strongly towards “Collectivism”, meaning you strongly believe policy should protect and support the best interests of all citizens. This theme is most important to you.
PacifismvsMilitarism
64
You side moderately towards “Pacifism”, meaning you believe we should use non-violent diplomatic discussion to resolve conflicts. This theme is most important to you.
CentralizationvsDecentralization
14
You side slightly towards “Decentralization”, meaning you more often believe that administrative power and decision making should be handled at the local level and serve the best interests of the local community. This theme is most important to you.
ToughvsTender
68
You side moderately towards “Tender”, meaning you believe in showing compassion, empathy, and rehabilitation for small-time criminals or those struggling with addiction. This theme is most important to you.
MulticulturalismvsAssimilation
40
You side moderately towards “Multiculturalism”, meaning you believe we should celebrate and embrace cultural diversity. This theme is most important to you.
TraditionalvsProgressive
50
You side moderately towards “Progressive”, meaning you believe we should be a nation that values personal freedom, expression, and diversity. This theme is most important to you.

I side with Tim Kaine on most 2016 Vice Presidential Election issues

Candidates you side with by issue...

I side with Democrats on most political issues

Parties you side with by issue...