The Upshot’s elections model suggests that Hillary Clinton is favored to win the presidency, based on
the latest state and national polls. A victory by Mr. Trump remains possible: Mrs. Clinton’s chance of losing is about the same as the probability that
an N.F.L. kicker misses a 37-yard field goal.
For months, we’ve been updating our estimates with each new poll. Today, it’s Election Day, what we’ve all been waiting for, and there will be no more updates. You can chart different paths to victory below. Here’s how our estimates have changed over time:
To forecast each party’s chance of winning the presidency, our model calculates vote estimates for each state and the District of Columbia, as well as congressional districts in Maine and Nebraska, which assign electoral votes by district.
In the table below, we have divided the country into groups based on each area’s voting history relative to the nation since 2004. Our forecast in places that tend to vote …
Like the country as a whole
*Maine and Nebraska award two electoral votes to the statewide winner and a single electoral vote to the winner of each congressional district.
The New York Times is one of many news organizations to publish election ratings or forecasts. Some, like
FiveThirtyEight or the
Princeton Election Consortium, use statistical models, as The Times does; others, like the
Cook Political Report, rely on reporting and knowledgeable experts’ opinions.
PredictWise uses information from betting markets.
We compile and standardize these ratings every day into one scoreboard for comparison. First, every organization’s estimate for who will win the presidency:
| Win presidency | |
85% Dem.
|
71% Dem.
|
98% Dem.
|
89% Dem.
|
>99% Dem.
|
92% Dem.
|
Lean Dem.
|
Lean Dem.
|
Lean Dem.
|
Note: The 538 model shown is its default (polls-only) forecast.Qualitative ratings reflect the rating for the state in the middle of each organization’s forecast, weighted by electoral votes.
Second, each organization’s state-by-state ratings. Viewed together, the differences between the models become much clearer.
Second, each organization’s state-by-state ratings. Viewed together, the differences between the models become much clearer.
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