NORTON META TAG

05 November 2012

WaPo-ABC tracking poll: final weekend tally is Obama 50, Romney 47, still a ‘margin of error’ contest 5NOV12

THIS is going to be a very close election so we need everyone to GET OUT AND VOTE FOR PRESIDENT OBAMA. It will not be a surprise if the repiglican state governments in Florida and Ohio try to suppress and repress the Obama vote on Tuesday. Just remember, don't let anyone turn you away from the polls and deny you the right to vote if you are a registered voter. Stand up for your rights and utilize the election observers to protect your right to vote. We will be out there tomorrow, TUESDAY, 6NOV12, to make sure you are able to vote! FORWARD WITH OBAMA-BIDEN!!!! From the Washington Post.....
Heading into Election Day, likely voters divide 50 percent for President Obama and 47 percent for his challenger, Republican Mitt Romney, according to the latest, final weekend release of the Washington Post-ABC News tracking poll.
A nail-biter throughout, the presidential contest remains closely competitive through its last days, even as most voters perceive a likely win for the president.

In regular polls since early July, neither candidate ever gathered more than 50 percent of likely voters, and neither ever slipped below 46 percent. Across nearly 7,000 interviews with likely voters from Oct. 18 through Sunday evening, less than four-tenths of a percentage point separates Obama and Romney.
The difference between the candidates in the final weekend tally is right at the 2.5 percentage margin of sampling error for the final four-night sample of 2,345 likely voters. This makes Obama’s being at plus three points over Romney an edge only by the slimmest of margins, well below conventional measures of statistical significance.
Still, hitting 50 percent is a first for Obama since the poll in early July, with Sunday interviews marking Obama’s single best day of the tracking poll. Just over 10 days ago, the tracking poll see-sawed in Romney’s direction by the same, slender 50 to 47 percent.
It is clearer that the president made progress in other areas. He has re-gained an advantage when it comes to understanding the economic problems people are having in the country, and, over the final week, has drawn back to running evenly with Romney in voter trust to handle job No. 1: the economy.
Obama has also closed the gap among white voters, inching back above the 40 percent threshold some analysts see as critical to his reelection. In the final days, white voters divide 56 percent for Romney, 41 percent for Obama. More than three-quarters of non-whites, 76 percent, back Obama, 20 percent side with Romney.
The president has also neutralized Romney’s previously large advantage among political independents. Independents divide 48 percent for Romney to 46 percent for Obama; Romney’s advantage had peaked at 58 to 38 percent 10 days ago.
The Post-ABC tracking poll is a series of consecutive one-night “waves” of interviews reported as a rolling, multi-night average. The new results are for interviews conducted Nov. 1-4.
For the entire tracking poll, a total of 9,397 randomly selected adults were interviewed by telephone (conventional landline and cellphone) over the course of 18 days, including 8,098 registered voters and 6,818 likely voters. Sampling, data collection and tabulation by Abt-SRBI of New York.
Crosstabs from the final weekend release of the tracking poll are available at this link. Comparisons to the 2008 exit poll are available here.
The table below shows results from select groups across the combined 18 waves of the tracking poll.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2012/11/05/wapo-abc-tracking-poll-final-weekend-tally-is-obama-50-romney-47-still-a-margin-of-error-contest/?wpisrc=al_comboNP_p

The real U.S. political map

As anyone who has read this blog knows, the presidential election tomorrow is national in name only.  Yes, voters in all 50 states will cast ballots but what really matters is who voters in seven to nine swing states choose as their preferred president.
The two presidential campaign as well as the many and varied super PACs and other outside groups know that, of course, and spent their campaign dollars accordingly.
This two-minute video from the good folks at NPR is the best visual representation we have seen of how the campaign — as viewed through the lens of where both sides are spending their dough — creates a very different U.S. map than we are used to seeing. It’s just terrific stuff.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2012/11/05/the-real-u-s-political-map/?tid=pm_politics_pop

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