BUCKNACKT'S SORDID TAWDRY BLOG
We should not be a journey to the grave with the intention of arriving safely in an attractive & well preserved body, but rather to skid in sideways, chocolate, bier or wein in hand, body thoroughly used up, totally worn out and screaming "WHOO-HOO, WHAT A RIDE!!!!!!"
NORTON META TAG
05 November 2012
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTORAL VOTE PREDICTIONS 5NOV12
THE last predictions on this blog for this election, from Five Thirty Eight, ElectoralVote.com, HuffPost and Intrade, and all are showing an Obama victory....God help us if they are wrong!!!!
By MICAH COHEN
Updated 10:05 PM ET on Nov. 5
President
Nov. 6 Forecast
Mitt Romney
222.7
-16.3
since Oct. 30
Barack Obama
315.3
+16.3
since Oct. 30
270 to win
We conclude our Presidential Geography series,
a one-by-one examination of each state’s political landscape and how it
is changing, with Ohio, the Buckeye State. FiveThirtyEight spoke with Herb Asher and Paul A. Beck, both professors emeritus in Ohio State University’s department of political science.
If
the polls are correct, and President Obama wins a narrow Electoral
College victory on Tuesday, the pivotal moment of the 2012 presidential
race may have actually occurred in 2009. About two months after taking
office, Mr. Obama set the terms of the government’s rescue of General Motors and Chrysler, a move that eventually helped to resurrect the American automobile industry, and, in turn, bolster the economy of the king of swing states: Ohio.
Historically,
Ohio has been slightly Republican-leaning relative to the nation. But
this year polls suggest that Ohio is slightly Democratic-leaning. That
divergence — driven by the auto rescue and the state’s improved economy,
local analysts said — may prove determinative. Ohio ranks first on
FiveThirtyEight’s tipping point index. The model estimates there is
roughly a 50 percent chance that the Buckeye State’s 18 electoral votes
will carry the winning candidate past the 270 mark.
Ohio’s historic rightward lean has been slight — about two percentage points, on average, since 1948 — but consistent.
In the 16 presidential elections from 1948 through 2008, Ohio was
redder than the nation in 13. It was Democratic-leaning relative to the
nation only in 1964, 1972 and 2004 (and in 2004, it leaned Democratic by
less than half a percentage point).
But polls show
Mr. Obama leading Mitt Romney in Ohio by about three percentage points,
one point better than Mr. Obama’s projected national margin, according
to the current FiveThirtyEight forecast. The auto rescue’s impact on
Ohio’s political preferences, though modest, has been decisive.
“The
auto rescue is popular in Ohio,” Mr. Beck said, and because the Buckeye
State was only slightly Republican-leaning, a small shift appears to
have tipped the state’s partisan balance.
Moreover,
the auto rescue and Ohio’s steadily falling unemployment rate appear to
have improved Mr. Obama’s standing with the very demographic group that
Mr. Romney might have made inroads with: white working-class voters.
“White
working-class voters in Ohio have been more supportive of Obama than
white working-class voters nationwide,” Mr. Beck said.
Ohio’s
economy has traditionally been driven by manufacturing. “Ohio led the
industrial revolution 100 years ago,” Mr. Asher said, but in the latter
half of the 20th century, globalization and the outsourcing of
manufacturing jobs hurt the state’s economy.
Early in the 2012
presidential campaign, during the summer, the Obama campaign saturated
Ohio television with advertisements highlighting Mr. Romney’s “Let Detroit Go Bankrupt”
op-ed article in The Times as well as linking Mr. Romney to Bain
Capital and linking Bain Capital to outsourcing, Mr. Asher said. For
many Ohio voters, that effort helped undermine Mr. Romney’s contention
that his business experience would benefit them if he reached the White
House.
As a result, Mr. Beck said, many of the white working-class
voters whom Mr. Romney might have appealed to now see him “as the kind
of businessman who for many of them was the problem.”
Mr. Asher added, “The Obama campaign defined Mr. Romney, and that appeal gets reinforcement by the auto bailout.”
The
Democratic Party’s base of support in Ohio is in the northeast part of
the state, a mix of African-American and blue-collar union voters in
Cleveland, Canton, Akron and Youngstown. In 2008, Mr. Obama carried Ohio
by just over 200,000 votes; he carried Cleveland’s Cuyahoga County by
almost 250,000 votes. Northeastern Ohio is also the center of the
state’s auto industry, in Cuyahoga and Lake Counties.
From
Cleveland, Democratic support fades as you travel west along Lake Erie
(though Toledo is reliably left-leaning) and southeast along Ohio’s
border with Pennsylvania. Democrats have also made some gains in Ohio’s
other major cities. Franklin County, which includes the state capital,
Columbus, has trended Democratic, and Mr. Obama made gains in Dayton in
2008, as well.
In 2008, Mr. Obama also managed to flip Hamilton
County, home to Cincinnati, which had long been one of the more
Republican-leaning cities in the state.
Conversely, Democratic
support has eroded in southeastern Ohio, which is part of Appalachia.
The southeast is culturally conservative and economically depressed.
Bill Clinton carried many of the counties there, but they have moved
sharply toward the G.O.P. since then. Coal is a major economic driver in
southeastern Ohio, and Mr. Romney has targeted voters in the area by
attacking Mr. Obama’s energy policies. But the southeast is also lightly
populated, contributing only about 10 percent of the statewide vote,
Mr. Asher said.
Outside of the northeast and Columbus, Dayton and
Cincinnati, Ohio is mostly Republican-leaning. Western Ohio, in
particular, is ruby red and socially conservative. To carry the state,
Mr. Romney will need to run up his margins in the suburban and exurban
counties in southwestern Ohio around Cincinnati as well as the small
towns along the state’s western border. In 2008, Senator John McCain
carried those counties, but he did not get the turnout and margins that
George W. Bush did in 2004. The Bellwether: Stark County Stark County,
anchored by Canton, has been an almost perfect bellwether for the
statewide vote in Ohio in the past three presidential elections. Canton
tends to vote Democratic, but Stark County also has more rural areas
that lean Republican. Stark County was one percentage point more
Republican-leaning that Ohio over all in 2008 and 2000 and two points
more Republican-leaning in 2004. The Bottom Line
Mr.
Obama is an 85 percent favorite to carry Ohio, according to the current
FiveThirtyEight forecast. Not coincidentally, that almost exactly
matches his odds of winning re-election, according to the model.
If
not for the auto rescue, Ohio’s slight Republican lean would most
likely have remained in effect. Unlike in other states, there are no
major demographic trends affecting the state’s partisan balance.
“Ohio
in terms of demographics is a fairly static state,” Mr. Beck said. “Our
Hispanic population is too small to matter except at the margins.”
If
Ohio were, relative to the national popular vote, two percentage points
Republican-leaning this election — its average over the last 60 years —
the state would be a tossup. And if Mr. Romney were able to carry Ohio,
he would have many more paths to the 270 electoral votes he needs to
win the White House.
But if the polls are right, and the auto
rescue and Ohio’s relatively healthy economy help Mr. Obama prevail in
the Buckeye State, then it becomes difficult — though not impossible —
for Mr. Romney to piece together a winning electoral map. http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/11/05/in-ohio-polls-show-benefit-of-auto-rescue-to-obama/#more-37207 ELECTORALVOTE.COM
Eight national polls were published yesterday. In five of them, Obama is leading. In the other
three he is tied. However, he was trailing in two of the tied polls from the same pollsters earlier, so he is gaining.
In politics, a week is a long time, but a day isn't so long and Romney has only a day to stop Obama's
momentum. Here are the data.
This morning, investigative reporters at a quality Dutch newspaper,
De Volkskrant, published a
story
that Mitt Romney avoided $100 million in dividend taxes using a complex route that ran through
The Netherlands. The mechanism used an arcane clause in the tax treaties that determine which country can
tax which type of income when a construction, in this case a private equity fund, runs through multiple
countries. Some of the data came from legal documents filed with the Dutch Chamber of Commerce.
The reporters repeatedly asked Romney to comment on the story but he refused.
Here is a translation of the article.
The Washington Post has a great
analysis
of the top races in all states. The state of the presidential race is well known at this point. Obama is slightly ahead
in New Hampshire, Iowa, and Nevada. Romney leads in North Carolina. The only states where nobody is really ahead are
Florida, Virginia, and Colorado. The top Senate races are also well known, as shown
here.
What the WaPo analysis gives is a look at close House races.
Embattled incumbents include Rep. Allen West (R-FL), Rep. John Barrow (D-GA), Rep. Steve King (R-IA),
Rep. John Tierney (D-MA), Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-MN), Rep. Frank Guinta (R-NH), Rep. Charlie Bass (R-NH),
and quite a few others.
Florida elections and lawsuits seem to be an enduring couple. Vast numbers of early voters in Florida yesterday
overwhelmed the polling stations. Some voters waited in line for 7 hours. Others couldn't vote at all.
Some voters in Miami-Dade County were told to cast absentee ballots but when they tried to get them, the office
issuing them closed down. In short, it was chaos in South Florida yesterday.
The Democratic Party
sued the state
in an effort to make adequate voting facilities available. Gov. Rick Scott (R-FL) just brushed off the problems
and said everything was running smoothly. Last year the Republican-controlled legislature reduced early voting days
from 14 to 8 in a more-or-less naked attempt to discourage voting in South Florida, which is strongly Democratic.
Miami-Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach counties are where 32% of Florida's Democrats live.
The judge doesn't have a lot of time to study the case and render a decision since tomorrow is election day.
Another election problem is that some
electronic voting machines do not have a paper trail. They are still in use and could be pre-programmed
to silently flip some votes or report an incorrect total and no one would have any way of auditing them.
The Verified Voting Foundation has been fighting for
voting systems with an audit trail for years, with mixed success. For the most part, each of the over 3,000
counties in the U.S. can buy whatever voting equipment it wants to. Few of the counties have any expertise
in voting system security and just believe whatever their supplier tells them. The Verified Voting Foundation
Website has a great deal of information about voting equipment and procedures, including a
map
showing the dominant equipment in each state. Florida and Virginia, for example, have a mixture of
paper ballots and unverifiable electronic voting machines. Colorado has a mix of paper ballots and electronic
voting machines, some with a paper trail and some without. Nevada and Utah are the only states with electronic
voting machines all of which have paper trails. The paper trails are essential for an honest election since
in the event of a close election, the paper ballots can be manually counted.
Voting machines aren't the only potential source of controversy in this election. Absentee ballots
that are mailed in could lead to battles this time. Over 20% of the voters in Ohio and Florida
mailed
in absentee ballots in 2010 and this year the number is expected to be greater. The ballots are sent back in official
envelopes that the voter must sign. If the signature does not match the one on file--in the opinion of whoever
is doing the checking--the ballot will be rejected. Nationwide, over 2 million absentee ballots were rejected
for bad signatures in 2008. In a close election, fights over signatures could erupt, with handwriting experts
replacing lawyers as the key professionals in the fights.
In earlier elections, candidates spent a lot of money explaining to the voters why they were qualified
to be President and what they would do if elected. For example, 56% of John Kerry's Ads in 2004
were positive
and 42% contrasted him with Bush. This year, 59% of Obama's ads were negative and 27% contrasted him with Romney.
Only 14% were positive ads, talking about why he should be reelected. Romney's ads were a tad less negative, but
not much. Few people expect the situation to improve in future elections.
With individual donors giving millions of dollars to campaigns, state
legislatures doing their best to
minimize the number of people who vote, voters being made to wait 7
hours to vote,
international observers being sent packing in Texas and Iowa, and voting
machines that can't be checked, the Russian Foreign Ministry
has
said
the U.S. election system is the worst in the world. That is certainly not true, but a case could be
made that it is the worst among mature democracies, none of which experience the kinds of problems the U.S.
has, from outsized influence of a few wealthy individuals to governmental attempts to suppress the vote
to chaos at the polling stations.
While the U.S. system is far better than the Russian one, that is setting the bar pretty low.
There are hard fought Senate races in many states, including Massachusetts, Virginia, Wisconsin,
Indiana, Missouri, North Dakota, Montana, Nevada, and Arizona, but the presidential race doesn't seem to be having much
impact on them. The Senate races have gotten so much publicity on their own and the candidates are so much larger than life
that most voters are going to be making conscious choices in the Senate races, and not just voting a straight party
line. In Massachusetts, Obama will win in a landslide, but the Senate race between Sen. Scott Brown (R-MA) and
Elizabeth Warren is close. Romney will sweep Indiana, Missouri, North Dakota, Montana, and Arizona, but that is
cold comfort to the Republican Senate candidates in those states who are in very competitive races.
So the bottom line is that we are likely to see quite a few
split tickets
this year.
Lt. Gov. Kim Guadagno (R-NJ), who is the state's top elections official, has
decreed
that voters who can't vote due to Hurricane Sandy's aftermath may send absentee ballots in by email.
Even under the best of circumstances, with careful planning, the possibility of fraud with email ballots is
gigantic and in an emergency situation with no security controls in place, it is even worse. Fortunately, there
are no competitive races in the state for any federal office, but there could be for state offices.
If
the polls are correct, and President Obama wins a narrow Electoral
College victory on Tuesday, the pivotal moment of the 2012 presidential
race may have actually occurred in 2009. About two months after taking
office, Mr. Obama set the terms of the government’s rescue of General Motors and Chrysler, a move that eventually helped to resurrect the American automobile industry, and, in turn, bolster the economy of the king of swing states: Ohio.
The
Democratic Party’s base of support in Ohio is in the northeast part of
the state, a mix of African-American and blue-collar union voters in
Cleveland, Canton, Akron and Youngstown. In 2008, Mr. Obama carried Ohio
by just over 200,000 votes; he carried Cleveland’s Cuyahoga County by
almost 250,000 votes. Northeastern Ohio is also the center of the
state’s auto industry, in Cuyahoga and Lake Counties.
If
Ohio were, relative to the national popular vote, two percentage points
Republican-leaning this election — its average over the last 60 years —
the state would be a tossup. And if Mr. Romney were able to carry Ohio,
he would have many more paths to the 270 electoral votes he needs to
win the White House.
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