The current view of the 2012 presidential election.
Barack Obama
332
Electoral Votes
270 to win
Mitt Romney
191
Electoral Votes
265 Strong Obama
67 Leans Obama
15 Tossup
0 Leans Romney
191 Strong Romney
Our snapshot of where the presidential race stands is based on hundreds of state-wide and national opinion polls — filtered through a poll-tracking model — and updated throughout the day.
State by State
Democrat
Republican
| Pollster Outlook | Past results | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| State | Electoral votes | Obama | Romney | Margin | '08 | '04 | '00 |
| Alabama | 9 | 37% | 56% | Romney +19 | R | R | R |
| Alaska | 3 | R | R | R | |||
| Arizona | 11 | 43% | 50% | Romney +7 | R | R | R |
| Arkansas | 6 | 36% | 57% | Romney +21 | R | R | R |
| California | 55 | 57% | 36% | Obama +21 | D | D | D |
| Colorado | 9 | 48% | 45% | Obama +3 | D | R | R |
| Connecticut | 7 | 53% | 40% | Obama +13 | D | D | D |
| Delaware | 3 | D | D | D | |||
| District of Columbia | 3 | D | D | D | |||
| Florida | 29 | 49% | 45% | Obama +4 | D | R | R |
| Georgia | 16 | 42% | 52% | Romney +10 | R | R | R |
| Hawaii | 4 | D | D | D | |||
| Idaho | 4 | R | R | R | |||
| Illinois | 20 | 57% | 35% | Obama +22 | D | D | D |
| Indiana | 11 | 43% | 50% | Romney +7 | D | R | R |
| Iowa | 6 | 48% | 44% | Obama +4 | D | R | D |
| Kansas | 6 | R | R | R | |||
| Kentucky | 8 | 39% | 54% | Romney +15 | R | R | R |
| Louisiana | 8 | R | R | R | |||
| Maine | 4 | 54% | 39% | Obama +15 | D | D | D |
| Maryland | 10 | 57% | 36% | Obama +21 | D | D | D |
| Massachusetts | 11 | 56% | 37% | Obama +19 | D | D | D |
| Michigan | 16 | 51% | 42% | Obama +9 | D | D | D |
| Minnesota | 10 | 51% | 42% | Obama +9 | D | D | D |
| Mississippi | 6 | R | R | R | |||
| Missouri | 10 | 43% | 50% | Romney +7 | R | R | R |
| Montana | 3 | 43% | 50% | Romney +7 | R | R | R |
| Nebraska | 5 | 40% | 53% | Romney +13 | R* | R | R |
| Nevada | 6 | 49% | 45% | Obama +4 | D | R | R |
| New Hampshire | 4 | 49% | 44% | Obama +5 | D | D | R |
| New Jersey | 14 | 53% | 39% | Obama +14 | D | D | D |
| New Mexico | 5 | 51% | 42% | Obama +9 | D | R | D |
| New York | 29 | 60% | 33% | Obama +27 | D | D | D |
| North Carolina | 15 | 47% | 47% | Tossup | D | R | R |
| North Dakota | 3 | 40% | 53% | Romney +13 | R | R | R |
| Ohio | 18 | 49% | 43% | Obama +6 | D | R | R |
| Oklahoma | 7 | 30% | 62% | Romney +32 | R | R | R |
| Oregon | 7 | 50% | 43% | Obama +7 | D | D | D |
| Pennsylvania | 20 | 50% | 41% | Obama +9 | D | D | D |
| Rhode Island | 4 | D | D | D | |||
| South Carolina | 9 | 42% | 51% | Romney +9 | R | R | R |
| South Dakota | 3 | 42% | 51% | Romney +9 | R | R | R |
| Tennessee | 11 | 43% | 50% | Romney +7 | R | R | R |
| Texas | 38 | 41% | 52% | Romney +11 | R | R | R |
| Utah | 6 | 29% | 64% | Romney +35 | R | R | R |
| Vermont | 3 | 64% | 29% | Obama +35 | D | D | D |
| Virginia | 13 | 48% | 45% | Obama +3 | D | R | R |
| Washington | 12 | 54% | 38% | Obama +16 | D | D | D |
| West Virginia | 5 | 39% | 54% | Romney +15 | R | R | R |
| Wisconsin | 10 | 50% | 43% | Obama +7 | D | D | D |
| Wyoming | 3 | R | R | R | |||
*In 2008, Nebraska's electoral votes were split. McCain took four of the state's five electoral votes and Obama took one.
Around the Web:
Presidential Election Map 2012 - The Washington Post
Presidential Race Ratings and Swing States - Election 2012 - NYTimes.com
2012 Election: Electoral Vote Tracker - USATODAY.com
Electoral Map - Election Center 2012 - Elections & Politics from CNN.com
The Road To 270: Predict The 2012 Presidential Race : NPR
RealClearPolitics - 2012 Election Maps - Battle for White House
2012 Political Map Center | PBS NewsHour
Electoral-vote.com: President, Senate, House Updated Daily
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/2012/romney-vs-obama-electoral-map
In the previous eight elections, Gallup had a clear leader six times. Of those, it picked the correct winner in every year except 1980, when Reagan upset Carter. The two years, 2000 and 2004, where Gallup had it tied were in fact very close. Looking at the numbers, 2012 looks a lot like 2008. The ball is now in Mitt Romney's court and he needs to do something powerful with it. Merely to continue pointing out that unemployment is 8% is probably not going to change much since people already know that. A potential game changer would be for him to crush Obama in the first debate on Oct. 3. Failing that, he could finally lay out a detailed plan of how he is going to fix the economy and what is going to do to the Internal Revenue Code. If he does nothing new, probably nothing will change. Einstein once defined insanity as "doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results."
In contrast to past years, control of the Senate could hinge on battles in New England. In addition to the Maine race, in Massachusetts, Sen. Scott Brown (R-MA) is fighting for his life in a contest with consumer advocate Elizabeth Warren. If either party wins both of these, it is likely to control the new Senate.
Now the shoe is on the other foot. The Republican Party hired a Virginia firm, Strategic Allied Consulting, to do voter registration in four swing states (Virginia, Nevada, Colorado, and North Carolina), and now it is being accused of precisely the same thing as ACORN was: fraudulent voter registration. The scandal was uncovered by the Palm Beach, FL, County Elections Supervisor who flagged 106 questionable registration applications bearing similar signatures and incorrect addresses.
* Denotes incumbent
---The Votemaster
President
Obama’s probability of winning the Electoral College fell slightly in
Friday’s FiveThirtyEight forecast, from 83.9 percent to 82.7 percent on
Thursday.
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/
Presidential Election Map 2012 - The Washington PostPresidential Race Ratings and Swing States - Election 2012 - NYTimes.com2012 Election: Electoral Vote Tracker - USATODAY.comElectoral Map - Election Center 2012 - Elections & Politics from CNN.comThe Road To 270: Predict The 2012 Presidential Race : NPRRealClearPolitics - 2012 Election Maps - Battle for White House2012 Political Map Center | PBS NewsHourElectoral-vote.com: President, Senate, House Updated Dailyhttp://elections.huffingtonpost.com/2012/romney-vs-obama-electoral-map
Obama
347
Romney
191
Senate
Dem
49
Ties
4
GOP
47
Senate
Downloadable
polling data
polling data
- Strongly Dem (199)
- Likely Dem (76)
- Barely Dem (72)
- Exactly tied (0)
- Barely GOP (0)
- Likely GOP (33)
- Strongly GOP (158)
270 Electoral votes needed to win
Map algorithm explained
New polls:
ME MI NH NM PA VA
Dem pickups:
(None)
GOP pickups:
IN
News from the Votemaster
How Does the Presidential Race Compare to Previous Ones?
One way to measure the presidential race is to compare the national Gallup poll now with national Gallup polls taken on or close to this date in previous years to see their predictive value. Talking Points Memo has collected the data and here it is. The notation D+6 means the Democrat was ahead by 6 points, etc. Incumbents are marked with an asterisk.| Year | Democrat | Republican | Gallup | Final |
| 2012 | Obama* | Romney | D+6 | ? |
| 2008 | Obama | McCain | D+5 | D+7 |
| 2004 | Kerry | Bush* | tied | R+2 |
| 2000 | Gore | Bush | tied | D+1 |
| 1996 | Clinton* | Dole | D+21 | D+9 |
| 1992 | Clinton | Bush* | D+16 | D+6 |
| 1988 | Dukakis | Bush | R+5 | R+8 |
| 1984 | Mondale | Reagan* | R+16 | R+18 |
| 1980 | Carter* | Reagan | D+4 | R+10 |
In the previous eight elections, Gallup had a clear leader six times. Of those, it picked the correct winner in every year except 1980, when Reagan upset Carter. The two years, 2000 and 2004, where Gallup had it tied were in fact very close. Looking at the numbers, 2012 looks a lot like 2008. The ball is now in Mitt Romney's court and he needs to do something powerful with it. Merely to continue pointing out that unemployment is 8% is probably not going to change much since people already know that. A potential game changer would be for him to crush Obama in the first debate on Oct. 3. Failing that, he could finally lay out a detailed plan of how he is going to fix the economy and what is going to do to the Internal Revenue Code. If he does nothing new, probably nothing will change. Einstein once defined insanity as "doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results."
Romney Campaigns Half-Heartedly in Pennsylvania
Mitt Romney campaigned in Warren, PA, yesterday and declared the state a battleground he was going to win. The strange thing about that is that the previous time he visited Pennsylvania was more than 2 months ago. Furthermore, neither his campaign nor his allied superPACs have advertised in the state since August. Either it is a battleground state or it isn't. If it is, why isn't Romney advertising there? If it is hopeless, why bother spending a critical day before Wednesday's debate there? It is an odd mixed message. Our current average, based on five recent polls, puts Obama ahead there 52% to 41%. Unless Romney's internal polls are telling him something completely different, he is wasting precious time he should be spending in Central Florida, where his fate may well be decided. If Romney loses the election, the postmortems are going to feature blunders like this--wasting time in places where he should have known he was doomed instead of fighting hard in states where more campaigning could have made a difference.GOP Donors Might Desert Romney
Political guru Charlie Cook sees the presidential race looking more and more like 1996, when Bob Dole's challenge to the incumbent Bill Clinton began to falter in September. As the forecasts got worse, the money dried up and the forecasts got even worse as it all went downhill. Cook believes that unless Romney can turn things around quickly, the donors, RNC, NRSC, and NRCC may de facto adopt as their slogan: "Give us money so we can control Congress and block Obama during his second term." It's not a message Romney wants to hear. It could also backfire if enough discouraged Republicans don't feel like standing in line to vote for someone they expect to lose. As an aside, Dole still retains his famous sense of humor after his loss and move from elections to erections. For evidence, see this piece he wrote yesterday about his life since 1996.What Obama Has to Do in the First Debate
A lot has been written about what Romney has to do in the first debate. It all comes down to somehow change the game. For Obama the situation is different. The Christian Science Monitor gives him this advice. First, be the President and act it. Take responsibility for your actions and don't blame George Bush or anyone else for anything. Remember Harry Truman's little sign: "The buck stops here." Second, be humble. Nobody likes an arrogant candidate or leader. Don't put Romney down. Convince people that you are working your tail off for them day and night. Third, channel Bill Clinton. Try to explain complicated things--like the economy--in ways everyone can grasp without talking down to them. In other words, act like an Arkansas pol rather than a professor of constitutional law. Finally, don't make any mistakes. For an incumbent President leading in the polls, a tie is good enough. For the challenger, it is not good enough. Keep that in mind.DSCC Buys Ad Time in Maine
The DSCC is in something of a bind in Maine. Chairwoman Patty Murray probably doesn't want to openly support former governor Angus King, who is running as an independent against both Democrat Cynthia Dill and Republican Charlie Summers for the Senate seat being vacated by Sen. Olympia Snowe (R-ME). On the other hand, King is dropping in the polls and Dill has no chance to win, only to be a spoiler by splitting the Democratic vote two ways. So Murray's $400,000 ad buy for Oct 2-12 is probably for an ad attacking the Republican rather than supporting King. It would be easier for Murray to explain to her donors why she is attacking the Republican than why she is not supporting the Democrat.In contrast to past years, control of the Senate could hinge on battles in New England. In addition to the Maine race, in Massachusetts, Sen. Scott Brown (R-MA) is fighting for his life in a contest with consumer advocate Elizabeth Warren. If either party wins both of these, it is likely to control the new Senate.
Republicans Drop Voter Registration Company that May Have Committed Fraud
In 2008, an organization called ACORN registered a million low-income voters, some of were nonexistent. The Republicans screamed about this even though none of the nonexistent voters actually voted. The problem was the minimum-wage workers who were paid per voter they registered, so some of them made up false names.Now the shoe is on the other foot. The Republican Party hired a Virginia firm, Strategic Allied Consulting, to do voter registration in four swing states (Virginia, Nevada, Colorado, and North Carolina), and now it is being accused of precisely the same thing as ACORN was: fraudulent voter registration. The scandal was uncovered by the Palm Beach, FL, County Elections Supervisor who flagged 106 questionable registration applications bearing similar signatures and incorrect addresses.
Today's Presidential Polls
| State | Obama | Romney | Start | End | Pollster | |
| Maine | 52% | 40% | Sep 25 | Sep 25 | Rasmussen | |
| Michigan | 51% | 42% | Sep 17 | Sep 19 | PPP | |
| New Hampshire | 50% | 45% | Sep 25 | Sep 27 | ARG | |
| New Mexico | 52% | 43% | Sep 17 | Sep 20 | PPP | |
| Pennsylvania | 49% | 42% | Sep 22 | Sep 26 | Muhlenberg Coll. | |
| Pennsylvania | 52% | 40% | Sep 17 | Sep 19 | PPP | |
| Virginia | 49% | 43% | Sep 17 | Sep 19 | PPP | |
| Virginia | 49% | 47% | Sep 24 | Sep 27 | ARG |
Today's Senate Polls
| State | Democrat | D % | Republican | R % | I | I % | Start | End | Pollster |
| Montana | Jon Tester* | 44% | Denny Rehberg | 42% | Sep 23 | Sep 25 | Global Strategy | ||
| Pennsylvania | Bob Casey* | 44% | Tom Smith | 36% | Sep 22 | Sep 26 | Muhlenberg Coll. |
* Denotes incumbent
---The Votemaster
2012 Electoral Map Forecast
Using data from the Intrade Prediction Market
Updated September 29, 2012
The map below is based on data from
the Intrade prediction market, where individuals place wagers on the
outcome of the 2012 Presidential election in each state. The states
remaining dark gray have no betting data currently available. The
darker the shade of blue or red, the more likely that the Democrat or
Republican will carry the state. Wagering is on party victory, but the
presumptive nominees are Barack Obama and Mitt Romney. Hover over any
state for details.
ROMNEY 206 |
OBAMA 332 ✓ |
TOSSUP 0✓ |
Sept. 28: A Circular Relationship Between Political and Economic Views
By NATE SILVER
Although Friday’s polls were a bit more equivocal than on some recent days, the shift mainly came because of a decline in the FiveThirtyEight economic index, which continues to have some influence on the forecast.
A government report on Friday showed a decline in real personal income in August, one of the economic data series that the forecast model uses. Furthermore, the July personal income figures, which had initially looked quite positive, were revised downward to show slower income growth.
Real personal income is up 2 percent from one year ago, a below-average number, but one that roughly matches other economic figures. However, it had been flat to negative for much of 2011, and it has increased only at about the growth rate of the population over the whole course of Mr. Obama’s term.
Another economic data series that the model uses, personal consumption expenditures, was also published on Friday and showed sluggish growth in consumer spending after adjusting for inflation.
Numbers from the manufacturing sector have also been poorer lately, and this month’s monthly jobs report was mediocre. Read more
A government report on Friday showed a decline in real personal income in August, one of the economic data series that the forecast model uses. Furthermore, the July personal income figures, which had initially looked quite positive, were revised downward to show slower income growth.
Real personal income is up 2 percent from one year ago, a below-average number, but one that roughly matches other economic figures. However, it had been flat to negative for much of 2011, and it has increased only at about the growth rate of the population over the whole course of Mr. Obama’s term.
Another economic data series that the model uses, personal consumption expenditures, was also published on Friday and showed sluggish growth in consumer spending after adjusting for inflation.
Numbers from the manufacturing sector have also been poorer lately, and this month’s monthly jobs report was mediocre. Read more
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