- Strongly Dem (210)
- Likely Dem (34)
- Barely Dem (32)
- Exactly tied (19)
- Barely GOP (62)
- Likely GOP (51)
- Strongly GOP (130)
270 Electoral votes needed to win
Map algorithm explained
New polls:
VA
Dem pickups:
MO
GOP pickups:
FL IN NC OH
News from the Votemaster
Wisconsin Recall Election Today
For only the third time in U.S. history a sitting governor is facing a recall election. Today the voters of Wisconsin have to decide if they want to keep Gov. Scott Walker (R-WI), who has taken an extremely hard line against the state's unions, which got them angry enough to successfully collect sufficient signatures to force a recall election. Walker is facing former Milwaukee mayor Tom Barrett (D). The other governors who faced recall elections were Lynn Frazier, governor of North Dakota, who was recalled in 1921 and Gray Davis, governor of California, who was recalled in 2003. Here are the most recent six polls of the Wisconsin recall election.| Pollster | Barrett | Walker | Start | End |
| We Ask America | 42% | 50% | Jun 3 | Jun 3 |
| PPP | 47% | 50% | June 2 | June 3 |
| Angus-Reid | 46% | 51% | May 30 | Jun 2 |
| Marquette Law School | 45% | 52% | May 23 | May 26 |
| We Ask America | 42% | 54% | May 23 | May 23 |
| St. Norbert Coll. | 45% | 50% | May 17 | May 22 |
If the polls are to be believed, Scott Walker will keep his job. However, as with primary elections, turnout on special elections tends to be low so a lot depends on which side is better at turning out its supporters.
No matter what happens today, Wednesday morning a lot of soothsayers will be examining the results for clues to November as if they were the entrails of a goat. A Walker victory today means a Romney win in November and a Barrett win means Obama will get a second term they will all say. It seems unlikely. It often happens that people vote for a Democrat for one office and a Republican for another. If everybody voted a straight party line, then each state would either have a Republican governor and two Republican senators or a Democratic governor and two Democratic senators. In reality, 14 states have a Republican governor and two Republican senators, 11 states have a Democratic governor and two Democratic senators, and 25 states have some other combination. So in half the states, the voters don't vote a straight ticket, including Wisconsin. Here is the list of sitting governors and senators (this list is also on the Data galore page in case you look for it later).
| State | Governor | Senior senator | Junior senator |
| Alabama | Robert Bentley (R) | Richard Shelby (R) | Jeffrey Sessions (R) |
| Alaska | Sean Parnell (R) | Lisa Murkowski (I) | Mark Begich (D) |
| Arizona | Janice Brewer (R) | John McCain (R) | Jon Kyl (R) |
| Arkansas | Michael Beebe (D) | Mark Pryor (D) | John Boozman (R) |
| California | Edmund Brown (D) | Dianne Feinstein (D) | Barbara Boxer (D) |
| Colorado | John Hickenlooper (D) | Mark Udall (D) | Michael Bennet (D) |
| Connecticut | Daniel Malloy (D) | Joseph Lieberman (I) | Richard Blumenthal (D) |
| Delaware | John Markell (D) | Thomas Carper (D) | Christopher Coons (D) |
| Florida | Richard Scott (R) | William Nelson (D) | Marco Rubio (R) |
| Georgia | John Deal (R) | Saxby Chambliss (R) | John Isakson (R) |
| Hawaii | Neil Abercrombie (D) | Daniel Inouye (D) | Daniel Akaka (D) |
| Idaho | Clement Otter (R) | Michael Crapo (R) | James Risch (R) |
| Illinois | Patrick Quinn (D) | Richard Durbin (D) | Mark Kirk (R) |
| Indiana | Mitchell Daniels (R) | Richard Lugar (R) | Daniel Coats (R) |
| Iowa | Terry Branstad (R) | Charles Grassley (R) | Thomas Harkin (D) |
| Kansas | Samuel Brownback (R) | Patrick Roberts (R) | Gerald Moran (R) |
| Kentucky | Steven Beshear (D) | Addison McConnell (R) | Rand Paul (R) |
| Louisiana | Piyush Jindal (R) | Mary Landrieu (D) | David Vitter (R) |
| Maine | Paul LePage (R) | Olympia Snowe (R) | Susan Collins (R) |
| Maryland | Martin O'Malley (D) | Barbara Mikulsi (D) | Benjamin Cardin (D) |
| Massachusetts | Deval Patrick (D) | John Kerry (D) | Scott Brown (R) |
| Michigan | Richard Snyder (R) | Carl Levin (D) | Deborah Stabenow (D) |
| Minnesota | Mark Dayton (D) | Amy Klobuchar (D) | Alan Franken (D) |
| Mississippi | Haley Barbour (R) | William Cochran (R) | Roger Wicker (R) |
| Missouri | Jeremiah Nixon (D) | Claire McCaskill (D) | Roy Blunt (R) |
| Montana | Brian Schweitzer (D) | Max Baucus (D) | Jon Tester (D) |
| Nebraska | David Heineman (R) | Benjamin Nelson (D) | Michael Johans (R) |
| Nevada | Brian Sandoval (R) | Harry Reid (D) | Dean Heller (R) |
| New Hampshire | John Lynch (D) | Jeanne Shaheen (D) | Kelly Ayote (R) |
| New Jersey | Christopher Christie (R) | Frank Lautenberg (D) | Robert Menendez (D) |
| New Mexico | Susana Martinez (R) | Jeffrey Bingaman (D) | Thomas Udall (D) |
| New York | Andrew Cuomo (D) | Charles Shumer (D) | Kirsten Gillibrand (D) |
| North Carolina | Beverly Perdue (D) | Richard Burr (R) | Kay Hagan (D) |
| North Dakota | John Dalrymple (R) | Kent Conrad (D) | John Hoeven (R) |
| Ohio | John Kasich (R) | Sherrod Brown (D) | Robert Portman (R) |
| Oklahoma | Mary Fallin (R) | James Inhofe (R) | Thomas Coburn (R) |
| Oregon | John Kitzhaber (D) | Ronald Wyden (D) | Jeffrey Merkley (D) |
| Pennsylvania | Thomas Corbett (R) | Robert Casey (D) | Patrick Toomey (R) |
| Rhode Island | Lincoln Chafee (I) | John Reed (D) | Sheldon Whitehouse (D) |
| South Carolina | Nimrata Haley (R) | Lindsey Graham (R) | James DeMint (R) |
| South Dakota | Dennis Daugaard (R) | Timothy Johnson (D) | John Thume (R) |
| Tennessee | William Haslam (R) | Lamar Alexander (R) | Robert Corker (R) |
| Texas | James Perry (R) | Kay Bailey Hutchison (R) | John Cornyn (R) |
| Utah | Gary Herbert (R) | Orrin Hatch (R) | Michael Lee (R) |
| Vermont | Peter Shumlin (D) | Patrick Leahy (D) | Bernard Sanders (I) |
| Virginia | Robert McDonnell (R) | James Webb (D) | Mark Warner (D) |
| Washington | Christine Gregoire (D) | Patricia Murray (D) | Maria Cantwell (D) |
| West Virginia | Earl Tomblin (D) | John Rockefeller (D) | Joseph Manchin (D) |
| Wisconsin | Scott Walker (R) | Herbert Kohl (D) | Ronald Johnson (R) |
| Wyoming | Matthew Mead (R) | Michael Enzi (R) | John Barrasso (R) |
Five Primaries Today
Although Mitt Romney has more than enough delegates to capture the Republican nomination, the primary process is continuing to roll along, with primaries in California, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, and South Dakota today. In a number of cases there are contested primaries for the Senate and House, so there will no doubt be substantial turnout. Incumbent vs. incumbent elections are happening in New Jersey and California. Also, in New Mexico, there are tough Democratic and Republican primaries in New Mexico for the Senate seat of retiring senator Jeff Bingaman.Today's Presidential Polls
| State | Obama | Romney | Start | End | Pollster | |
| Virginia | 47% | 47% | Jun 03 | Jun 03 | Rasmussen |
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---The Votemaster
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