NORTON META TAG

09 July 2011

National debt by U.S. presidential terms 9JUL11 & Jobs created during U.S. presidential terms 6JUL11

DURING these contentious budget negotiations in Washington D.C. it might be helpful to know who has contributed most the national debt....who has increased federal spending the most and who has created the most jobs during their term(s) as President. You might be very interested in my recent post on the national debt and taxes 15 Things the GOP Doesn't Want You to Know About Taxes and the Debt 2SEP12
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From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Economic and political commentators have noted a pattern between changes in US national debt and US presidential terms over the last few decades. These commentators observe that US national debt (as a percentage of GDP) have increased under Republican Presidents, but have decreased under Democratic Presidents.

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Economist Mike Kimel notes that the last five Democratic Presidents (Clinton, Carter, LBJ, JFK, and Truman) all reduced public debt as a share of GDP, while the last four Republican Presidents (GW Bush, GHW Bush, Reagan, and Ford) all oversaw an increase in the country’s indebtedness. (Interestingly Mr. Kimel was able to calculate GHW Bush's debt in December, 2007--the date of the referenced article.) Many commenters to Mr. Kimel's article noted the possible risks in calculating only "public" debt, which ignores any borrowing from Social Security revenues which have run surpluses for many years.[1] Economic historian J. Bradford DeLong observes a contrast not so much between Republicans and Democrats, but between Democrats and "old-style Republicans (Eisenhower and Nixon)" on one hand (decreasing debt), and "new-style Republicans" on the other (increasing debt).[2] Similarly, David Stockman, director of the Office of Management and Budget under President Ronald Reagan, as op-ed contributor to the New York Times, blamed the "ideological tax-cutters" of the Reagan administration for the increase of national debt during the 1980s because of their failure to rein in spending.[3] For the past 30 years, federal debt reductions have only occurred during Republican majorities in Congress (see Federal Spending, Federal Debt, and GDP table below).

Gross federal debt

This table lists the gross U.S. federal debt[4] as a percentage of GDP by Presidential term since World War II.[5] The current gross federal debt as a percentage of GDP (83.4% at the end of 2009) is currently the highest it has been since the late 1940s. The debt briefly reached over 100% of GDP in the aftermath of World War II.
These figures do not include unfunded obligations. The U.S. government is committed under current law to mandatory payments for programs such as Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security. The 2009 present value of these deficits or unfunded obligations is an estimated $45.8 trillion. This is the amount that would have to be set aside such that the principal and interest would pay for the unfunded commitments through 2084. Approximately $7.7 trillion relates to Social Security, while $38.2 trillion relates to Medicare and Medicaid. Adding this to the national debt and other federal commitments brings the total obligations to nearly $62 trillion.[6] However, these amounts are excluded from the national debt computation.
The President proposes the budget for the government to the congress, which can amend it before passing. The U. S. Constitution in Article 1, Section 7 grants exclusive right to originate revenue related bills to the House of Representatives; the President's proposals are an indication of spending desired, but it is the House which defines the spending through the final wording of the bills. Since the budget resolution is a “concurrent” congressional resolution, not an ordinary bill, it does not go to the President for his signature or veto.[7] While this leaves substantial room for the legislature to change the deficit, congressional historian Louis Fisher observes that, "Congress rarely appropriates more than what the President requests." In the case of Nixon, who fought fiercely with Congress over the budget, he writes, "Congress was able to adhere to the President's totals while significantly altering his priorities." [8]
U.S. president↓ Party↓ Term years↓ Start debt/GDP↓ End debt/GDP↓ Increase debt ($T)↓ Increase debt/GDP
(in percentage points)↓		 House Control
(with # if
split during term)↓		 Senate Control
(with # if
split during term)↓
Roosevelt/Truman D 1945–1949 117.5% 93.1% -0.01 -24.4% 79th D, 80th R 79th D, 80th R
Harry Truman D 1949–1953 93.1% 71.4% 0.01 -21.7% D D
Dwight Eisenhower R 1953–1957 71.4% 60.4% 0.01 -11.0% 83rd R, 84th D 83rd R, 84th D
Dwight Eisenhower R 1957–1961 60.4% 55.2% 0.02 -5.2% D D
Kennedy/Johnson D 1961–1965 55.2% 46.9% 0.03 -8.3% D D
Lyndon Johnson D 1965–1969 46.9% 38.6% 0.04 -8.3% D D
Richard Nixon R 1969–1973 38.6% 35.6% 0.10 -3.0% D D
Nixon/Ford R 1973–1977 35.6% 35.8% 0.24 +0.2% D D
Jimmy Carter D 1977–1981 35.8% 32.5% 0.22 -3.3% D D
Ronald Reagan R 1981–1985 32.5% 43.8% 0.68 +11.3% D R
Ronald Reagan R 1985–1989 43.8% 53.1% 0.75 +9.3% D 99th R, 100th D
George H. W. Bush R 1989–1993 53.1% 66.1% 1.14 +13.0% D D
Bill Clinton D 1993–1997 66.1% 65.4% 0.73 -0.7% 103rd D, 104th R 103rd D, 104th R
Bill Clinton D 1997–2001 65.4% 56.4% 0.29 -9.0% R R
George W. Bush R 2001–2005 56.4% 63.5% 1.71 +7.1% R 107th Split, 108 R
George W. Bush R 2005–2009 63.5% 84.2% 3.97 +20.7% 109th R, 110th D 109th R, 110th D
Barack Obama D 2009– 84.2% 93.2% (2010) 1.65 (2010) +9.0% (2010) 111th D, 112th R D
(Source: CBO Historical Budget Page and Whitehouse FY 2012 Budget - Table 7.1 Federal Debt at the End of Year PDF, Excel, Senate.gov)
Notes:

Public debt

Gross debt and public debt are different. Public debt is the gross debt minus intra-governmental obligations (such as the money that the government owes to the two Social Security Trust Funds, the Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance program, and the Social Security Disability Insurance program).[9]
The figure below shows the trend in public debt with the background colored by the party controlling the executive. The color of the trend line does not represent party affiliation; only the background does.

Time series of U.S. public debt overlaid with partisan affiliation of the White House. The upper graph shows the U.S. public debt in trillions of USD while the lower graph shows the U.S. public debt as a percentage of GDP. (Data are from the 2009 U.S. Budget.)

Federal spending, federal debt, and GDP

The table below shows the annual federal spending, gross federal debt, and gross domestic product for average presidential parties, specific presidential terms, and specific fiscal years.[10]
Fiscal Year President Party of President Federal Spending Federal Debt Gross Domestic Product Inflation Adjustor[11]
Billions[12] Adjusted[13] Increase Billions[14] Adjusted[15] Increase Billions[16] Adjusted[17] Increase
1978-2005
Democratic

9.9%

4.2%

12.6%
1978-2005
Republican

12.1%

36.4%

10.7%


1978–1981 Carter Democratic $678 $1,219 17.2% $994 $1,787 -0.4% $3,055 $5,492 9.4%
1982–1985 Reagan Republican $946 $1,396 14.5% $1,817 $2,680 49.0% $4,142 $6,108 11.2%
1986–1989 Reagan Republican $1,144 $1,499 7.4% $2,867 $3,757 40.2% $5,401 $7,077 15.9%
1990–1993 Bush Republican $1,410 $1,615 7.8% $4,351 $4,987 32.7% $6,576 $7,536 6.5%
1994–1997 Clinton Democratic $1,601 $1,684 4.3% $5,369 $5,647 13.2% $8,182 $8,606 14.2%
1998–2001 Clinton Democratic $1,863 $1,821 8.1% $5,769 $5,638 -0.2% $10,058 $9,829 14.2%
2002–2005 Bush Republican $2,472 $2,165 18.9% $7,905 $6,923 22.8% $12,238 $10,717 9.0%
2006-2009* Bush Republican $3,107 $2,452 13.3% $10,413 $8,218 18.7% $15,027 $11,859 10.7%


1977 Ford Republican $409 $1,040
$706 $1,795
$1,974 $5,019
0.39
1978 Carter Democratic $459 $1,093 5.1% $776 $1,850 3.1% $2,217 $5,285 5.3% 0.42
1979 Carter Democratic $504 $1,107 1.3% $829 $1,821 -1.5% $2,501 $5,494 4.0% 0.46
1980 Carter Democratic $591 $1,175 6.1% $909 $1,808 -0.8% $2,727 $5,422 -1.3% 0.50
1981 Carter Democratic $678 $1,219 3.8% $994 $1,787 -1.1% $3,055 $5,492 1.3% 0.56
1982 Reagan Republican $746 $1,252 2.6% $1,137 $1,908 6.8% $3,228 $5,417 -1.4% 0.60
1983 Reagan Republican $808 $1,294 3.4% $1,371 $2,195 15.0% $3,441 $5,510 1.7% 0.62
1984 Reagan Republican $852 $1,300 0.4% $1,564 $2,386 8.7% $3,840 $5,858 6.3% 0.66
1985 Reagan Republican $946 $1,396 7.4% $1,817 $2,680 12.3% $4,142 $6,108 4.3% 0.68
1986 Reagan Republican $990 $1,426 2.1% $2,120 $3,052 13.9% $4,412 $6,352 4.0% 0.69
1987 Reagan Republican $1,004 $1,406 -1.4% $2,345 $3,283 7.6% $4,647 $6,506 2.4% 0.71
1988 Reagan Republican $1,065 $1,447 2.9% $2,601 $3,534 7.7% $5,009 $6,806 4.6% 0.74
1989 Reagan Republican $1,144 $1,499 3.6% $2,867 $3,757 6.3% $5,401 $7,077 4.0% 0.76
1990 Bush Republican $1,253 $1,590 6.1% $3,206 $4,067 8.3% $5,735 $7,277 2.8% 0.79
1991 Bush Republican $1,324 $1,610 1.3% $3,598 $4,374 7.5% $5,935 $7,215 -0.8% 0.82
1992 Bush Republican $1,382 $1,624 0.9% $4,001 $4,703 7.5% $6,240 $7,334 1.7% 0.85
1993 Bush Republican $1,410 $1,615 -0.5% $4,351 $4,987 6.0% $6,576 $7,536 2.8% 0.87
1994 Clinton Democratic $1,462 $1,642 1.7% $4,643 $5,216 4.6% $6,961 $7,820 3.8% 0.89
1995 Clinton Democratic $1,516 $1,662 1.2% $4,920 $5,395 3.4% $7,326 $8,033 2.7% 0.91
1996 Clinton Democratic $1,561 $1,673 0.7% $5,181 $5,554 3.0% $7,694 $8,248 2.7% 0.93
1997 Clinton Democratic $1,601 $1,684 0.7% $5,369 $5,647 1.7% $8,182 $8,606 4.3% 0.95
1998 Clinton Democratic $1,653 $1,721 2.2% $5,478 $5,704 1.0% $8,628 $8,985 4.4% 0.96
1999 Clinton Democratic $1,702 $1,746 1.5% $5,605 $5,750 0.8% $9,125 $9,361 4.2% 0.97
2000 Clinton Democratic $1,789 $1,789 2.5% $5,628 $5,628 -2.1% $9,710 $9,710 3.7% 1.00
2001 Clinton Democratic $1,863 $1,821 1.8% $5,769 $5,638 0.2% $10,058 $9,829 1.2% 1.02
2002 Bush Republican $2,011 $1,929 6.0% $6,198 $5,945 5.5% $10,377 $9,954 1.3% 1.04
2003 Bush Republican $2,160 $2,018 4.6% $6,760 $6,316 6.2% $10,809 $10,099 1.4% 1.07
2004 Bush Republican $2,293 $2,082 3.2% $7,354 $6,677 5.7% $11,500 $10,441 3.4% 1.10
2005 Bush Republican $2,472 $2,165 4.0% $7,905 $6,923 3.7% $12,238 $10,717 2.6% 1.14
2006 Bush Republican $2,655 $2,249 3.9% $8,451 $7,158 3.4% $13,016 $11,024 2.9% 1.18
2007 Bush Republican $2,730 $2,263 0.6% $8,951 $7,419 3.6% $13,668 $11,329 2.8% 1.21
2008* Bush Republican $2,931 $2,366 4.6% $9,654 $7,793 5.0% $14,312 $11,553 2.0% 1.24
2009 Bush Republican $3,107 $2,452 3.6% $10,413 $8,218 5.5% $15,027 $11,859 2.6% 1.27
2010* Obama Democratic $3,991 $2,392 1.4% $13,954 $10,817 6.2% $15,792 $12,221 3.0% 1.29
Formula notes
  • The dollar amounts for each presidential term are taken from the last fiscal year in that term.
  • The increase in each presidential term is the increase in the adjusted amount from the last fiscal year of the previous term to the last fiscal year of the current term.
  • The value for each presidential party is the average of the values for all the presidents in that party.
  • The values for the years 2008, 2009, and 2010 represent estimates from the source material.

See also

Notes

  1. ^ Kimel, Mike (2007-12-04). "The Republican Party and the National Debt". angrybearblog.com. Retrieved 15 April 2011.
  2. ^ "contrast between the Democrats and the old-style Republicans (Eisenhower and Nixon) on the one hand and the new-style Republicans on the other is quite striking." Brad DeLong (2009-11-20). "Comparing Debt-to-GDP Ratios with Presidential Terms". Seeking Alpha. Retrieved 2010-08-09.
  3. ^ Stockman, David (2010-07-31). "Four Deformations of the Apocalypse". New York Times (nytimes.com). Retrieved 2010-08-09.
  4. ^ The gross federal debt includes intra-government debt, i.e. money owed by one branch of the federal government to another. When this amount is subtracted the remaining quantity is known as the public debt.
  5. ^ Budget FY2007
  6. ^ Peter G. Peterson Foundation (April 2010). "Citizen's guide 2010: Figure 10", p. 30. Peter G. Peterson Foundation [website]. Retrieved February 5, 2011.
  7. ^ http://www.cbpp.org/cms/?fa=view&id=155
  8. ^ Fisher, Louis (Nov. - Dec. 1990). "Federal Budget Doldrums: The Vacuum in Presidential Leadership". Public Administration Review 50 (6): 693–700. doi:10.2307/976984. JSTOR 976984.
  9. ^ Frontline - Ten Trillion and Counting: Defining the Debt
  10. ^ Budget FY 2009
  11. ^ Budget FY2009. Addendum: Composite Deflator, page 26. Divide current dollars by this number to produce value in (constant) FY2000 dollars.
  12. ^ Budget FY2009. Outlays in current dollars, page 26.
  13. ^ Budget FY2009. Outlays in current dollars, page 26, divided by Inflation Adjustor.
  14. ^ Budget FY 2009. Gross Federal Debt in current dollars, page 127.
  15. ^ Budget FY 2009. Gross Federal Debt in current dollars, page 127, divided by Inflation Adjustor.
  16. ^ Budget FY2009. GDP (Gross Domestic Product) in current dollars, page 194.
  17. ^ Budget FY2009. GDP (Gross Domestic Product) in current dollars, page 194, divided by Inflation Adjustor.

References

External links

This page was last modified on 9 July 2011 at 04:07

Jobs created during U.S. presidential terms

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jobs_created_during_U.S._presidential_terms 


From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
 This section does not cite any references or sources. Please help improve this section by adding citations to reliable sources. Unsourced material may be challenged and removed. (January 2010)
Politicians and pundits frequently refer to the ability of the President of the United States to "create jobs" in the U.S. during his or her term in office. The numbers are most often seen during the election season or in regard to a President's economic legacy. The numbers typically used and most frequently cited by economists are total nonfarm payroll employment numbers as collected by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on a monthly and annual basis.

Contents

Methodology

The job numbers are collected via a survey of thousands of businesses. The sample establishments are drawn from private nonfarm businesses such as factories, offices, and stores, as well as federal, state, and local government entities. Employees on nonfarm payrolls are those who received pay for any part of the reference pay period (which includes the 12th of the month), including persons on paid leave.
As of 2005, the sample includes about 160,000 businesses and government agencies covering approximately 400,000 individual worksites. These job counts are monthly estimates based on data provided by employers (adjusted annually to a near census of total jobs provided by mandatory unemployment insurance filings) and also reflect those with multiple employers who are counted with each employer.

Controversy

The exact usefulness of these numbers is debated. On the one hand, they include only nonfarm payroll employment, which excludes certain types of jobs, notably the self-employed. However, as a semi-balancing factor, they count one person with two jobs as two employed persons.
Additionally, for at least the first eight months of a President's term, he inherits a budget proposed and implemented by his predecessor (as well as an overall economy which may be in decline or recovery).
Moreover, according to the United States Constitution, the United States Congress is responsible for government spending and thus, regardless of Presidential advocacy, bears constitutional responsibility for such things as spending and tax policy that have enormous effects upon the economy. Furthermore, it is debatable how much effect any President realistically could have on a system as large, diverse, and complex as the U.S. economy. Nevertheless, the nonfarm payrolls number is the one most frequently used in the media and by economists, largely because the alternative (household survey numbers) is thought to drastically overestimate employment.
Another factor to consider is population growth, which provides opportunities for the creation of jobs, rendering these figures less impressive, or in the case of the already subpar, clearly insufficient.
The Heritage Foundation has pointed to Alan Greenspan's general economic optimism (in 2004) as support for household survey numbers over payroll numbers. However, the subsequent downturn, and Greenspan's admission of having been wrong, may have discredited that view.

Job creation by term

Numbers listed here are measured from January of the year at the beginning of the term to the January four years later, when the term ends.
U.S. president↓ Party↓ Term years↓ Start jobs*↓ End jobs*↓ created (in millions)↓ Average annual increase↓
Harding/Coolidge R 1921–1925 25,000 ** 29,500 ** +4.5 ** +4.2% **
Calvin Coolidge R 1925–1929 29,500 ** 32,100 ** +2.6 ** +2.2% **
Herbert Hoover R 1929–1933 32,100 ** 25,700 ** -6.4 -9.0%
Franklin Roosevelt D 1933–1937 25,700 ** 31,200 ** +5.5 +5.3% **
Franklin Roosevelt D 1937–1941 31,200 ** 34,480 +3.3 +2.6% **
Franklin Roosevelt D 1941–1945 34,480 41,903 +7.4 +5.2%
Roosevelt/Truman D 1945–1949 41,903 44,675 +2.8 +1.8%
Harry Truman D 1949–1953 44,675 50,145 +5.5 +3.0%
Dwight Eisenhower R 1953–1957 50,145 52,888 +2.7 +1.4%
Dwight Eisenhower R 1957–1961 52,888 53,683 +0.8 +0.4%
Kennedy/Johnson D 1961–1965 53,683 59,583 +5.9 +2.6%
Lyndon Johnson D 1965–1969 59,583 69,438 +9.9 +3.9%
Richard Nixon R 1969–1973 69,438 75,620 +6.2 +2.2%
Nixon/Ford R 1973–1977 75,620 80,692 +5.1 +1.7%
Jimmy Carter D 1977–1981 80,692 91,031 +10.3 +3.2%
Ronald Reagan R 1981–1985 91,031 96,353 +5.3 +1.5%
Ronald Reagan R 1985–1989 96,353 107,133 +10.8 +2.7%
George H. W. Bush R 1989–1993 107,133 109,725 +2.6 +0.6%
Bill Clinton D 1993–1997 109,725 121,231 +11.5 +2.6%
Bill Clinton D 1997–2001 121,231 132,469 +11.2 +2.3%
George W. Bush R 2001–2005 132,469 132,453 +0.0 -0.0%
George W. Bush R 2005–2009 132,453 133,563 +1.1 +0.1%
Barack Obama D 2009–2013 133,563 131,753 (May 2011) -1.81 (May 2011) -.54% (May. 2011/Roughly 2.5 Years)
*In Thousands **Approximate
BLSJobs.gif
For information on the United States public debt divided by Gross Domestic Product by Presidential term, see National Debt by U.S. presidential terms

[edit] External links and references

This page was last modified on 6 July 2011 at 02:19.
Posted by Bucknackt at 10:46
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