Storm to depart, takes century-old record along 10FEB10

Posted at 04:05 PM ET, 02/10/2010
Storm to depart, takes century-old record along
Second blizzard in days sets seasonal snow record
* Federal government closed Thursday: Federal Eye *
* Snowiest winter ever | Today's Q&A | NWS: Stay off the roads *
* Blizzard Warning until 10 p.m. area-wide (map) | NWS snow totals *
* Making history? | Watch out for ice dams | Top 5 driving hazards *
* Yesterday's Q&A | Snowmageddon's incredible output *
* Power outage maps for Dominion Electric | Pepco | BG&E | SMECO *
* Outside now? Radar, temps & more: Weather Wall *
* News, traffic & storm coverage: Local home page | Get There *


Graphic by Washington Post.It's not often we witness a 100-year-plus record fall. Perhaps it's fitting it went out in such extreme fashion today. As reported here earlier, National Airport's preliminary (2 p.m.) snow total of 54.9" for the 2009-2010 winter thus far puts D.C. above the previous high mark of 54.4" set way back in 1898-1899. Baltimore has also broken its all-time record with this event.

Snow will gradually diminish through early evening as the precipitation shield slowly drifts to the north and east, but strong winds gusting to around 50 mph will continue through the evening causing ground blizzard conditions and drifting snow.


Through tonight: Any leftover snow departs this evening and skies clear. Winds remain strong, gusting past 50 mph early and easing just a bit late. Temperatures range from the low-to-upper teens for lows.

Tomorrow (Thursday): Unlike the dig out from Snowmageddon's wet snow, this one will present challenges from drifting. Strong winds continue for much of the day with gusts past 30 mph at times before diminishing late. Sunshine returns with highs probably near or a smidge above freezing in the low-and-mid 30s.

Posted at 03:15 PM ET, 02/10/2010
It's history: Winter 2009-2010 snowiest on record
Records set at National, Dulles, and BWI Airports
*** Latest update: Winds, blowing snow still in high gear ***

Post updated at 3:15

Reagan National Airport (DCA) reported 1" of snow between 1 and 2 p.m., upping its storm total to 9.8". It has received 54.9" this year, exceeding the 54.4" of 1898-1899.

Keep reading for the full statement from the National Weather Service on the snow record not only DCA but also at Dulles and BWI...

Posted at 01:40 PM ET, 02/10/2010
Uncle!... Winds, blowing snow still in high gear
Closing in on D.C.'s snowiest winter on record

West and south of the Beltway, the snow has become mainly light. But moderate to sometimes heavy snow has hung on inside the Beltway and to the north. Even as the snow gradually tapers from southwest to northeast between now and early evening -- another 1-3" is possible in places, especially north and east -- the winds will not let up. In fact, they may even get a bit stronger. Expect sustained winds at 20-30 mph with gusts to near 50 mph possible, leading to the potential for snow drifts of 2-4 feet, and up to 5 feet north and east of town.

Bottom line, we are a long ways from the end of this storm's impacts, and power outages will in all likelihood start to mount as the winds take their toll.

Total storm accumulations as of late morning were around the 5-10" range (and counting) for the immediate metro area, with 10-15" common in Frederick County and Baltimore. The 8.7" recorded at Reagan National Airport at 1 p.m. was less than an inch away from making this winter the snowiest on record. The current No. 1 was 54.4" in 1898-1899.


The NAM model shows an intense area of upper-level energy swings through this morning. How did this happen? The explosion of heavy snow today resulted from the interaction of a monstrous piece of upper-level energy (which came through fairly similar to the way the models were showing earlier in the week) with an intensifying area of low pressure moving up the Atlantic coast.

Had the coastal low pressure formed too far north or moved too quickly toward and north of our latitude, the upper-level energy may not have caught up to it in time to squeeze out the intense rates of snow we've seen. But this is the winter of 2009-2010, in which everything seems to work out just right for heavy snow almost every time.

Posted at 11:00 AM ET, 02/10/2010
Blizzard continues: Snow piles up, winds rage
Snow decreasing southwest of Fairfax County

We are living through some of the most extreme winter weather we'll ever experience in the metro region this morning. Heavy snow, winds exceeding 40 mph, and true whiteout conditions have paralyzed the entire region and steady snow will continue for a couple more hours or so (longer north and east of the District). Blizzard warnings span northern Virginia, the District and the entire state of Maryland. With the falling snow and wind, temperatures have plummeted into the low 20s with wind chills in the single digits.

Steady, wind-driven snow continues through much of the area though the snow is decreasing in coverage and intensity south of Fairfax County and Loudoun County. As the powerful storm off the Delmarva peninsula lifts northward, the snow will slowly diminish from southwest to northeast this afternoon. But even as the snow tapers off, blowing and drifting snow is possible through the day.

Snowfall totals so far for the storm have generally been from 7-9 inches in the immediate metro area, with some higher amounts to the north and northeast. Though we don't have an official total for DCA, the snow from this storm is surely bringing its seasonal total close to that of 1898-1899 (54.4"), the snowiest winter on record.

As the National Weather Service advised earlier, please stay off the roads in these dangerous conditions.

Posted at 09:31 AM ET, 02/10/2010
Weather Service: Don't drive in this...
Wind gusts around 40 mph common
* Latest update: Blizzard Warning for entire region *

Special Statement from National Weather Service....

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS MORNING FOR THE BALTIMORE-WASHINGTON REGION...THE EASTERN PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA...

DO NOT ATTEMPT TO DRIVE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. LIFE THREATENING BLIZZARD CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED RAPIDLY ACROSS THE BALTIMORE-WASHINGTON REGION THIS MORNING.

AT 7:27 AM THIS MORNING...A WIND GUST WAS RECORDED TO 60 MPH AT MANASSAS VIRGINIA. NUMEROUS WIND GUSTS OVER 40 MPH HAVE OBSERVED AROUND THE REGION ALONG WITH WHITE-OUT CONDITIONS.

IF YOU GET STRANDED IN YOUR VEHICLE...DO NOT LEAVE YOUR CAR TO TRY TO WALK FOR ASSISTANCE...YOU CAN QUICKLY BECOME DISORIENTED IN WIND DRIVEN SNOW AND COLD. THIS STORM WILL SUBSIDE EARLY THIS EVENING...SO WAIT IN YOUR CAR FOR EMERGENCY HELP TO ARRIVE. PERIODICALLY RUN YOUR ENGINE FOR ABOUT 10 MINUTES EACH HOUR FOR HEAT. ENSURE YOUR EXHAUST PIPE IS CLEARED OF SNOW AND ICE. CRACK YOUR WINDOWS TO AVOID CARBON MONOXIDE POISONING. TIE A COLORED CLOTH TO YOUR CARS ANTENNA TO BE VISIBLE TO RESCUERS. FROM TIME- TO-TIME...MOVE YOUR ARMS...LEGS...FINGERS...AND TOES TO KEEP BLOOD CIRCULATING.

Here are some other wind gusts reported from the around the region in the last several hours (updated at 10:30):

Dulles 44
Reagan 32
Ft. Belvoir 43
Andrews Air Force Base 25
Quantico 38
Stafford 29
Manassas 26
Leesburg 38
Gaithersburg 32
BWI 38
Patuxent River 48

Posted at 08:00 AM ET, 02/10/2010
Alert: Blizzard warning for entire metro region

Snow has developed explosively this morning as an intense upper level wave passing through the region interacts with a rapidly deepening (or bombing) storm off the Md./De. coast. Heavy snowfall rates of 1-2" an hour have been common and may continue for several more hours (longer to the northeast). Winds are starting to pick-up and will increase, creating blizzard conditions. The combination of snow and wind is occasionally reducing visibilities to 1/4 of a mile or less. Stay off the roads unless travel is essential.

Later this morning, the snow should lighten in intensity and become more intermittent especially as you head southwest of the District. The snow should taper to flurries between mid-afternoon and early evening from southwest (Fauquier County) to northeast (Anne Arundel County). Even as the snow diminishes, winds will continue to increase, with gusts exceeding 40 mph causing blowing and drifting snow. Power outages, unfortunately, are a strong possibility.

Our next update will be between 11:00 and 11:30 a.m. Refer to Dan Stillman's post from earlier for the forecast for tonight and beyond.

Posted at 05:10 AM ET, 02/10/2010
Risky recipe: Snow, ice, snow, then wind
* Winter Storm Warning for entire metro area

It started with around 2 to 5 inches of snow yesterday evening. Then, the late evening and overnight brought a period of sleet and freezing rain. Now, the entire metro area is changing back to snow and should stay that way through much of today. All this would be trouble enough on top of the 1.5 to nearly 3 feet of snow over the weekend. But add increasingly strong and gusty winds, and you have a perfect recipe for impassable streets, limited transit and power failures.

The snow: Any areas still seeing sleet or and/or freezing rain should turn over to all snow soon. Snow will be moderate to heavy at times through midday before tapering in the mid-to-late afternoon. Additional accumulations of around 3-6" inches are likely for downtown and points south and west (probably the lower end of the range as you head southwest from D.C.), with around 4-8" expected north and east of the city. That's on top of the 2-5" that's already fallen in much of the metro area, with 5-8" already recorded once you get toward Baltimore.

The winds: Probably the most severe of today's conditions will be increasingly strong winds, which will really start to crank up by around late morning. Sustained winds should reach 20-30 mph with gusts of 40-50 mph. That means blizzard or near-blizzard conditions are possible. Widespread power outages are a serious threat considering the combination of the wind and the snow and ice already weighing down trees and power lines.

AFTER THE SNOW

Tonight & Tomorrow: As the storm heads northeast into New England, the winds here tonight stay strong -- sustained at 20-30 mph with higher gusts -- as lows bottom in the low-to-mid 20s. Still blustery tomorrow with partly sunny skies, highs in the mid-30s, and winds sustained around 15-25 mph with gusts to near 35 mph before decreasing in the afternoon or evening.

Friday & beyond: Partly to mostly sunny Friday, Saturday and into Sunday with highs in the 30s and morning lows in the teens to near 20. The two caveats, however, are that we still have to keep an eye on a coastal storm for early in the weekend. For now it looks like it will stay south and out to sea, but that's not a done deal yet. And by late Sunday or Monday, an area of snow could be approaching from the west courtesy a clipper system originating in Canada. For now, there's not much confidence in whether this system will materialize and how strong it would be. We'll keep you posted. -Updated: Wed. Feb. 10 @ 2 p.m.

Posted at 11:10 PM ET, 02/ 9/2010
Double whammy: First snow, then gusty winds
Wintry mix in some places for now, turning to all snow

The snow has already piled up quickly this evening -- 3 to 4 inches in many metro area locations -- and there's more to come. There have been reports of sleet and even some freezing rain mixing in, especially downtown and south and east of the District. Sleet and freezing rain will likely continue to be part of the mix for the next few hours, and longer for areas to the south like Fredericksburg and Southern Maryland, but for the immediate area the bulk of this storm looks to be primarily snow once we get into the overnight and tomorrow.

CWG team snowfall forecast for Tues.-Wed. Confidence: Medium-High.While precipitation may be mixed and on the light side for the next several hours, snow will likely pick up again before sunrise and through the rest of the morning (as low pressure moving up the coast intensifies), before letting up at some point during the afternoon. We still expect final accumulations as depicted in the map to the right -- anywhere from around 6" to 16" depending on where you are in the metro area, with the highest amounts expected north and east of D.C. toward Baltimore.

Despite the potentially impressive snow accumulations, tomorrow's winds may turn out to be the biggest story of the storm. We expect sustained winds to increase during the day to 20-30 mph with gusts in the 40-50 mph range. Significant power outages seem likely, and blizzard warnings could be issued. From the National Weather Service...

AS STORM CRANKS UP OFF THE COAST...WINDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE. GUSTS TO 45 MPH MAY AFFECT THE ENTIRE CWA ON WEDNESDAY. THESE WINDS WILL PROMOTE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...AND WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES NEAR ONE QUARTER MILE AT TIMES WEDNESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AND AN UPGRADE OF HEADLINES AT LEAST ALONG THE WASHINGTON-BALTIMORE CORRIDOR MAY BECOME NECESSARY ON WEDNESDAY TO ADDRESS THESE CONDITIONS.
Another note: While it's not offficial yet, Reagan National has almost certainly recorded enough snow already this evening to make the winter of 2009-2010 the second snowiest on record, and while it may be a close call, the No. 1 spot is within reach. See our "Making History?" post for all the relevant statistics on D.C.'s run at snowiest winter.

Posted at 07:15 PM ET, 02/ 9/2010
Snow sticking, intensity increasing

Snow has rapidly developed over the region over the last several hours and is sticking everywhere. Anywhere from a heavy coating to 1-2" (highest amounts south and to the northwest) has already accumulated throughout the area. Moderate to sometimes heavy snow will continue for the next several hours. South and east of town, some sleet may mix-in, but the predominant precipitation type should be snow.

Radar does indicate that snow decreases in coverage and intensity to the west and southwest of Fairfax County, but there are indications that may fill-in, keeping the snow going...even if it lightens in intensity or becomes more intermittent. The steadiest and heaviest snow will likely fall along I-95 and to the north and northeast of the District. By 11 p.m. -- the time of our next update -- most spots in the metro region should have 2-4" or so of new snow on the ground.

Posted at 03:45 PM ET, 02/ 9/2010
Snoverkill beginning to arrive
Winds pick up tonight, gust to around 50 mph on Wed.

Snow is a bit delayed but it will not be denied and neither will the big winds of Snoverkill. The storm's effects will begin to be felt across the area through evening as precipitation breaks out. Some sleet is possible early as far north as the entire D.C. metro before everyone goes back over to all snow during the late evening or overnight. The heaviest snow of Snoverkill looks to come during the early-morning through midday tomorrow as winds increase, causing near-blizzard conditions throughout the day.

Through tonight: Snow and sleet showers developing this evening consolidate into a general area of light to moderate snow into the night. Some mix is possible across much of the area early, still favoring D.C. and southeast, but we should flip over to snow within a short window around midnight. There may be some lulls in activity late with snowfall rates picking up again near sunrise. Lows range from 20 to 25 with winds increasing by morning.

Tomorrow (Wednesday): Snow and blowing snow is the big story of the morning and very strong winds tell the tale of the afternoon. We should see a band of moderate to heavy snow swing through the area through midday before precipitation tapers late. Winds increase throughout the day and gust as high as 50 mph during the afternoon, causing reduced visibilities, drifting of snow and power outages. Highs should rise to the upper 20s and around 30.

Tomorrow night: Any lingering evening flurries or snow showers should depart early. Skies clear thereafter and winds slowly diminish, but still gust to around 35 mph. Lows mainly in the low-and-mid 20s.

Total accumulations: We still expect accumulations to range from 6-10" across much of the area with a band of higher snow totals ranging from 8-16" focused on the northern portion and northeast. The highest accumulation potential is up toward Baltimore and northeast.

Posted at 11:05 AM ET, 02/ 9/2010
Next storm closes in; no change in forecast
Snoverkill's worst impacts expected tonight & tomorrow
2:10 p.m. Update: Radar is still pretty quiet around the region. However, precipitation should blossom by late afternoon or evening. As we mentioned earlier, any precipitation through afternoon should be on the light side and looks to be scattered, with not much accumulation until after sunset. Next full update between 3 and 4 p.m.

We know there are some widely divergent accumulation forecasts out there, and depending on where you are in the metro area. But as of the latest information coming in this morning, we are staying pat with our forecast of 6" to 16" for the metro area (see our accumulation map to see what part of that range applies to your location). We expect the highest amounts to be north and east of D.C. toward Baltimore.


Now through tomorrow: We still expect snow, or a snow/sleet mix for D.C. and points south and east, to begin from southwest to northeast over the next several hours. But precipitation should be on the light side to start, possibly moderate at times, and may be scattered, so accumulation by sunset should be around an inch or less. The heaviest precipitation is expected this evening through tomorrow morning, and may not taper until later in the afternoon. Strong winds tomorrow are likely to down trees and power lines, so widespread power outages are quite possible.

Uncertainties: The models we use to help guide our forecasts are not in as much agreement as for the last storm. With that in mind, there's still some uncertainty to the forecast. Here are our accumulation probabilities as they stand now:

25%: Less than 6"
35%: 6-10"
30%: 10-16"
10%: 16"+

(Again, accumulations are likely to be toward the higher end north and east of D.C. and lower south and west.)