09 January 2016

Still don’t think Donald Trump can win? This chart should convince you. 9JAN16

 Yes, this man could be the Republican presidential nominee. REUTERS/Brian Snyder/Files
IF nothing else motivates you to become involved in the 2016 presidential election process, the chance that donald trump will be the repiglican nominee should. I have no intention of voting for  any of the repiglicans running for president, in my opinion their presidential campaign platforms represent various degrees of evil, taking from the 99% to give more to the 1% while intending to involve us in wars we have no business being in, sacrificing American blood to increase the profit margins of the military-industrial complex. I am a proud Sandersnista, a supporter of +Senator Bernie Sanders I VT Bernie2016 campaign. Sen Sanders is running for all America, he is not owned by or controlled by the 1%, he will represent the best interest of the American people and lead the fight to restore America to being a nation of the people, for the people. And, according to current polling, beats donald trump handily, but trump's money and the propaganda machine it funds, could easily change that. trump is an oligarch, and just as he is used to buying whoever and whatever he wants with his vast wealth, he will use the presidency to buy whoever and whatever he wants on a national and international scale. His political mentality is that of a Third World despot and he will not hesitate to pillage the America for the benefit of himself and the rest of the 1%. This is not an election year to sit on the sidelines and wait to see how things shake out. Democracy is not a spectator sport. We all have the responsibility to be engaged  in the electoral process, those who do not become involved, who do not vote,  just might be the voters who elect donald trump in 2016. This from the +Washington Post .....

Still don’t think Donald Trump can win? This chart should convince you.

When people find out I am a political reporter, they usually have only one question for me: "Donald Trump can't really win this thing, can he?" My answer is always the same these days: Absolutely he can.
The reason is simple: Trump is the national front-runner, yes, but he is also ahead in a two key early states -- New Hampshire and South Carolina -- and a strong second in Iowa, the state that kicks the whole presidential process off on Feb. 1.
Could he totally collapse from that position? Sure. As we know from recent history, voters in Iowa and New Hampshire don't start paying all that close attention to the race until about 30 days or so out from the actual vote -- meaning that polling on what the race looks like tends to be an inexact science.
But the fact that Trump is ahead nationally and that he is running first or second in Iowa and New Hampshire is meaningful, argues Sam Wang over at the Princeton Election Consortium.
Wang's argument is that based on recent electoral history and where Trump stands in polling today, the real estate billionaire actually has a very good chance at being the Republican nominee. Look at where the past nominees in each party were at this time in national, Iowa and New Hampshire polling:
Sure, there's John Kerry, who was fourth nationally and third in Iowa at this point but went on to win both of the first two states and quickly wrap up the nomination. But the overall trend is clear; running first nationally and standing in either first or second place in Iowa and New Hampshire tends to be a very good predictor of your chances at being the nominee.
Here's Wang's chart with Trump's current standing factored in:
"This emphasizes the fact that based on polling data, Donald Trump is in as strong a position to get his party’s nomination as Hillary Clinton in 2016, George W. Bush in 2000, or Al Gore in 2000," writes Wang. (The bolding is his, not mine.) "The one case in which a lead of this size was reversed was the 2008 Democratic nomination, which very was closely fought."
It's important to remember that Wang isn't saying that Trump will be the Republican nominee. What he's saying is that Trump has a pretty damn good chance at being the GOP nominee -- if past is prologue.
The simple fact is that it is difficult to fall from the lofty perch that Trump currently occupies fast enough to not have a real chance at the nomination. Just one month from now, the Iowa and New Hampshire votes will have already happened!
Barring some sort of massive flub or campaign catastrophe -- and it's hard to imagine what would even fit that description when it comes to Trump -- The Donald will be in the mix when the nomination gets decided.
And, if you're wondering where Trump's rivals for the nomination fit in Wang's calculations, the only one who comes close to the reality star is Ted Cruz, who is second nationally, first in Iowa and third in New Hampshire. Marco Rubio, widely seen as the establishment front-runner at this point, is third nationally, third in Iowa and second in New Hampshire. Jeb(!) Bush? Fifth nationally, sixth in Iowa and sixth in New Hampshire.
The race might not be Trump's to lose just yet. But it's starting to get very late for him to collapse.

Chris Cillizza writes “The Fix,” a politics blog for the Washington Post. He also covers the White House.