IF nothing else motivates you to become involved in the 2016 presidential election process, the chance that donald trump will be the repiglican nominee should. I have no intention of voting for any of the repiglicans running for president, in my opinion their presidential campaign platforms represent various degrees of evil, taking from the 99% to give more to the 1% while intending to involve us in wars we have no business being in, sacrificing American blood to increase the profit margins of the military-industrial complex. I am a proud Sandersnista, a supporter of +Senator Bernie Sanders I VT Bernie2016 campaign. Sen Sanders is running for all America, he is not owned by or controlled by the 1%, he will represent the best interest of the American people and lead the fight to restore America to being a nation of the people, for the people. And, according to current polling, beats donald trump handily, but trump's money and the propaganda machine it funds, could easily change that. trump is an oligarch, and just as he is used to buying whoever and whatever he wants with his vast wealth, he will use the presidency to buy whoever and whatever he wants on a national and international scale. His political mentality is that of a Third World despot and he will not hesitate to pillage the America for the benefit of himself and the rest of the 1%. This is not an election year to sit on the sidelines and wait to see how things shake out. Democracy is not a spectator sport. We all have the responsibility to be engaged in the electoral process, those who do not become involved, who do not vote, just might be the voters who elect donald trump in 2016. This from the +Washington Post .....
Could he totally collapse from that position? Sure. As we know from recent history, voters in Iowa and New Hampshire don't start paying all that close attention to the race until about 30 days or so out from the actual vote -- meaning that polling on what the race looks like tends to be an inexact science.
But the fact that Trump is ahead nationally and that he is running first or second in Iowa and New Hampshire is meaningful, argues Sam Wang over at the Princeton Election Consortium.
Wang's argument is that based on recent electoral history and where Trump stands in polling today, the real estate billionaire actually has a very good chance at being the Republican nominee. Look at where the past nominees in each party were at this time in national, Iowa and New Hampshire polling:
Here's Wang's chart with Trump's current standing factored in:
It's important to remember that Wang isn't saying that Trump will be the Republican nominee. What he's saying is that Trump has a pretty damn good chance at being the GOP nominee -- if past is prologue.
The simple fact is that it is difficult to fall from the lofty perch that Trump currently occupies fast enough to not have a real chance at the nomination. Just one month from now, the Iowa and New Hampshire votes will have already happened!
Barring some sort of massive flub or campaign catastrophe -- and it's hard to imagine what would even fit that description when it comes to Trump -- The Donald will be in the mix when the nomination gets decided.
And, if you're wondering where Trump's rivals for the nomination fit in Wang's calculations, the only one who comes close to the reality star is Ted Cruz, who is second nationally, first in Iowa and third in New Hampshire. Marco Rubio, widely seen as the establishment front-runner at this point, is third nationally, third in Iowa and second in New Hampshire. Jeb(!) Bush? Fifth nationally, sixth in Iowa and sixth in New Hampshire.
The race might not be Trump's to lose just yet. But it's starting to get very late for him to collapse.