SPRING, I am seekingk for you you are hidingk from me....
http://youtu.be/CCtO_WdsdqM
SO Spring, my wuve, weturn to me, pwease!!!!!
http://youtu.be/6jDcWAWRRHo
People of the East Coast, I bring sad and frigid news about what this
unending winter might deliver next week. The National Weather Service released a warning that a “Nor’easter bomb” could be in store for the Mid-Atlantic on Tuesday night.
Here’s where I pause for a moment to note that this is just a forecast made several days in advance, and obviously with such forecasts you must remember that they are merely scientific pronouncements about what may happen rather than hard and fast declarations stating what will happen. The NWS notes in its warning that this is all about potential, so keep that in mind.
Here’s what the NWS says:
It’s okay, though, because spring — actual spring, not just the official start of spring, the kind of spring where I can start wearing sandals outside again — is almost here! And with spring comes the salvation of warmth, comfort and — what’s that, Capital Weather Gang’s Jason Samenow?
http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-nation/wp/2014/03/21/dont-panic-but-a-noreaster-bomb-might-bring-snow-to-the-east-coast-next-week/?wpisrc=nl_headlines
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/03/21/next-tuesdays-east-coast-storm-could-be-a-monster-but-may-well-miss/?tid=pm_pop
http://uswx.com/uswx/local.php?q=20170&x=10&y=11
SO Spring, my wuve, weturn to me, pwease!!!!!
Don’t panic, but a ‘Nor’easter bomb’ might bring snow to the East Coast next week
Snow-covered tables in Washington, D.C., earlier this week. (Nicholas Kamm/AFP/Getty Images)
Here’s where I pause for a moment to note that this is just a forecast made several days in advance, and obviously with such forecasts you must remember that they are merely scientific pronouncements about what may happen rather than hard and fast declarations stating what will happen. The NWS notes in its warning that this is all about potential, so keep that in mind.
Here’s what the NWS says:
“The east-coast cyclone has the potential to produce late-season heavy snowfall over a wide swath of real estate from Virginia to New England; that is a generality at this point. Much remains in terms of refining the forecast state by state. Another high-impact factor will be the powerful winds generated by this sprawling, intense circulation, along with high seas, beach battery, coastal flooding, and so forth. Again, at this point, such sensible weather effects are simply attendant to the potential of such a storm.”(The word “bomb” is used when low-pressure centers deepen at a particularly fast rate, according to Eric Holthaus, who flagged the warning in the first place.)
It’s okay, though, because spring — actual spring, not just the official start of spring, the kind of spring where I can start wearing sandals outside again — is almost here! And with spring comes the salvation of warmth, comfort and — what’s that, Capital Weather Gang’s Jason Samenow?
The spring season will pose challenges of its own, NOAA cautioned today, in releasing its spring outlook…. Drought in California is predicted to persist or intensify and up to half of the rivers in the U.S. are prone to minor to moderate flooding as snow melts and spring rains arrive. Little relief is likely for some of the areas hardest hit by cold.Oh, and — wait, there’s more from Samenow:
Suppose a strong El Niño event does materialize later this summer or fall. What might it mean?If you’ll excuse me. [climbs into storm bunker, locks the door, sobs quietly]
- Large amounts of heat from the tropical Pacific Ocean would be released into the atmosphere, likely raising global temperatures to record-setting levels
- Above normal rain would be favored in California.
- Hurricane activity would likely be suppressed in the Atlantic
Next Tuesday’s East Coast storm could be a monster, but could miss
Yes, a major storm will explode off the East Coast early next
week. Sure, call it a ‘meteorological bomb’. But the potentially
behemoth storm may only materially impact eastern New England.
Since yesterday, models have shifted the track of the storm farther offshore and the consensus is trending towards more of a glancing blow scenario for the Mid-Atlantic – including the Washington, D.C. area. Yes, a slight shift back towards the coast is possible. So the entire Mid-Atlantic and especially the Northeast – where the storm center is likely to come somewhat closer – need to stay on alert.
This is a storm that models suggest will rapidly intensify Tuesday into Wednesday, easily meeting the criteria for what meteorologists call “explosive development” or “bombogenesis” in which the storm’s central pressure plummets 24 mb in 24 hours. These kinds of storms can produce severe impacts including very heavy rain and snow, wind gusts over 60 mph (especially in coastal areas), and coastal flooding.
But for now, the latest models suggest D.C. could well be spared the storm’s full force.
“For the Washington area, the operational models only forecast light precipitation Tuesday, as they develop the low too far east to spread the heavier precipitation into our area,” notes Wes Junker, Capital Weather Gang’s winter weather expert. ” The models also are still suggesting that the precipitation will fall during the day on Tuesday. Light precipitation during daylight hours could be either rain or snow but would not be a big deal if today’s runs of the operational models are correct.”
But Junker also cautions it’s too soon to let our guard down: “The latest GEFS ensemble guidance offers a big caveat as a few members [simulations] still wrap up the low and spread heavy precipitation/snow into the area. Therefore, despite the model trends, the storm still is worth monitoring over the next couple of days.”
(The same holds true for the European model ensemble guidance – some simulations have the storm hitting us more directly.)
Let’s take a quick look at the latest operational models.
* The European model is mostly a miss for the D.C. area (and even eastern New England is just grazed), with just a little rain and/or snow Tuesday.
* The GFS model mostly misses D.C., but would have major impacts in New England, with snow, wind and coastal flooding.
* The Canadian model is pretty similar to the GFS…just grazing D.C. but delivering a blow to eastern New England.
As we’re right on the edge of this, stay tuned for updates over the weekend.
Since yesterday, models have shifted the track of the storm farther offshore and the consensus is trending towards more of a glancing blow scenario for the Mid-Atlantic – including the Washington, D.C. area. Yes, a slight shift back towards the coast is possible. So the entire Mid-Atlantic and especially the Northeast – where the storm center is likely to come somewhat closer – need to stay on alert.
This is a storm that models suggest will rapidly intensify Tuesday into Wednesday, easily meeting the criteria for what meteorologists call “explosive development” or “bombogenesis” in which the storm’s central pressure plummets 24 mb in 24 hours. These kinds of storms can produce severe impacts including very heavy rain and snow, wind gusts over 60 mph (especially in coastal areas), and coastal flooding.
But for now, the latest models suggest D.C. could well be spared the storm’s full force.
“For the Washington area, the operational models only forecast light precipitation Tuesday, as they develop the low too far east to spread the heavier precipitation into our area,” notes Wes Junker, Capital Weather Gang’s winter weather expert. ” The models also are still suggesting that the precipitation will fall during the day on Tuesday. Light precipitation during daylight hours could be either rain or snow but would not be a big deal if today’s runs of the operational models are correct.”
But Junker also cautions it’s too soon to let our guard down: “The latest GEFS ensemble guidance offers a big caveat as a few members [simulations] still wrap up the low and spread heavy precipitation/snow into the area. Therefore, despite the model trends, the storm still is worth monitoring over the next couple of days.”
(The same holds true for the European model ensemble guidance – some simulations have the storm hitting us more directly.)
Let’s take a quick look at the latest operational models.
* The European model is mostly a miss for the D.C. area (and even eastern New England is just grazed), with just a little rain and/or snow Tuesday.
Storm simulation from European model from 8 a.m. Tuesday to 8 a.m. Wednesday (WeatherBell.com)
Storm simulation of GFS model from 8 a.m. Tuesday to 8 a.m. Wednesday (WeatherBell.com)
Simulation of storm from Canadian model from 8 a.m. Tuesday to 8 a.m. Wednesday (Environment Canada)
Jason Samenow is the Capital Weather Gang's chief meteorologist and serves as the Washington Post's Weather Editor. He earned BA and MS degrees in atmospheric science from the University of Virginia and University of Wisconsin-Madison.
Saturday, March 22, 2014, 12:08 PM EDT
Herndon, VA
County: Fairfax NWS Zone: VAZ053 (Fairfax) 12:08 PM EDT (16:08 GMT) |
77.3873 W
38.9812 N Sat, Mar 22, 2014 |
| Current Conditions | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Observation for Dulles Airport, Chantilly, VA as of 11:52AM (17 min ago)
|
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| National Weather Service Forecast | |
| Rest of today | Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 60s. Southwest winds around 15 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. |
| Tonight | Partly cloudy in the evening, then becoming mostly cloudy. Lows in the upper 30s. North winds 10 to 15 mph. |
| Sunday | Mostly cloudy. Cooler with highs in the mid 40s. Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph. |
| Sunday night | Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 20s. Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. |
| Monday | Sunny. Highs in the lower 40s. Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph. |
| Monday night | Mostly cloudy. Lows in the upper 20s. |
| Tuesday | Snow and rain. Highs in the upper 30s. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. |
| Tuesday night | Mostly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of snow showers. Lows in the upper 20s. |
| Wednesday | Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 40s. |
| Wednesday night | Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 20s. |
| Thursday | Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 50s. |
| Thursday night | Mostly cloudy. Lows in the upper 30s. |
| Friday | Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of showers. Highs in the lower 60s. |
http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-nation/wp/2014/03/21/dont-panic-but-a-noreaster-bomb-might-bring-snow-to-the-east-coast-next-week/?wpisrc=nl_headlines
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/03/21/next-tuesdays-east-coast-storm-could-be-a-monster-but-may-well-miss/?tid=pm_pop
http://uswx.com/uswx/local.php?q=20170&x=10&y=11
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